River Flood Warning 2, NWS Pocatello, ID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
208 PM MDT Sun Apr 21 2024

.SHORT TERM...Tonight and Monday
As expected, we've seen a bit more cloud cover across the region
today along with breezy winds across the lower valleys. Winds,
although breezy, remain below Wind Advisory criteria and should
remain as such throughout the afternoon and evening. A shortwave
well to our north is to blame for all of this but despite clouds and
winds, temps are running well above normal with widespread 60s being
observed. Unlike the past few days, there is a signal in the hi-res
CAMs that are supportive of precip today, focused primarily across
the eastern Highlands. Coverage will be isolated in nature but and
even a thunderstorm or two can't be ruled out. Not seeing any signal
in the models to show precip potential exists anywhere else
however.

Once the sun goes down, winds should subside and skies will
gradually start to clear during the overnight hours. Monday looks to
be a pleasant day across eastern Idaho with mostly clear skies and
no precipitation expected. Winds will remain a touch breezy, but not
as brisk as today. Temperatures will be 3-5 degrees cooler for most
locations but still running on the warmer side of normal for late
April. McKaughan

.LONG TERM...Tue through next Sun night.
The upper level pattern transitions to a warmer west and
southwesterly flow with a low entering the southern Great Basin on
Thu morning. Troughing enters southern Idaho and brings some
precipitation as early as Wed afternoon/evening. A stronger trough
passes through northern Great Basin on Thu night through Sat
night. This brings a threat of precipitation every period. By Sun,
the precipitation threat is limited to eastern and northern
zones. With the stronger trough, west to northwest wind arrives
and temperatures start to cool.

Maximum temperatures during this period occur Wed before the first
low pushes stronger moisture into the eastern Gem State. Afternoon
highs stay above normal until Fri, after the second wave enters the
picture. Overnight lows are mild to near normal with all the cloud
cover starting Wed night. Thu afternoon to the end appears to be
windy to very windy, all driven by the arrival of all these lows and
troughing. Messick

&&

.AVIATION...
Wind took its time developing this morning, but KBYI has reached
15G25KT range already. This is from a trough with its center in
western MT dragging a cold front through eastern Idaho this
afternoon and evening. Behind the front on Mon, expect another
gusty afternoon and maybe early evening. Only KDIJ is far enough
north with west-facing mountain slopes that will help develop
showers today, but do not expect any impact to CIG or VSBY from
any of this. Perhaps some CIGs today, but much drier Mon. Messick

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No major changes in hydro forecasts at this time. Water levels on
the Portneuf river continue to run high, just below moderate flood
stage for the Portneuf river in Pocatello. The river forecast for
the Portneuf river in Pocatello shows the river running above flood
stage for the foreseeable future and likely climbing back to
moderate flood stage in a few days. At Topaz, levels remain and are
forecast to remain very near minor flood stage. Levels are forecast
to slowly rise towards the end of this next week with warming
temperatures through Wednesday and the return of precipitation
chances in the second half of the week. McKaughan/Moore

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&