Red Flag Warning 25, NWS Pocatello, ID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
152 PM MDT Sun Aug 18 2024

.SHORT TERM...Today and Monday. Looking at current satellite
imagery, there continues to be a deep upper level low centered
just off the coast of Oregon and Washington. Plus, there is a
ample lingering moisture over our area as well as additional
moisture moving northeast into our area today.

Later this afternoon, starting around 3 to 4 pm, look for
isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms across the area
with our eastern areas along the Wyoming border having the best
chance for thunderstorms. These eastern areas are also under a
marginal risk for severe thunderstorms from the Storm Prediction
Center. Expect gusty winds around 40 mph to 50 mph with wind gusts
up to 60 mph. Also, expect small to moderate hail along with
moderate to heavy rainfall under thunderstorms. Our eastern areas
are also under an excessive rainfall outlook mainly along the
Wyoming border. Again, this is the area where thunderstorms are
the most likely to occur as well as be the strongest. Precipitable
water content of around 1 inch is expected in the Eastern Magic
valley, Snake plain, and our Eastern areas along the Wyoming
border.

Tonight into Monday, models show our area in the same pattern,
with an upper level low off the Oregon coast and moisture still
moving up from Utah into our area combined with lingering
moisture. Look for isolated to scattered mostly afternoon showers
and thunderstorms over most of our forecast area on Monday as
well. Look for mainly scattered thunderstorms along the Wyoming
border in our our area Monday afternoon. Strong outflow winds are
expected again with these thunderstorms. Our eastern areas along
the Wyoming border are also under a marginal risk again for
severe thunderstorms mainly due to strong outflow wind gusts.
Plus, these same eastern areas bordering the Wyoming border are
also under an Excessive Rainfall Outlook for Monday afternoon.
Small to moderate hail and brief heavy rain are also expected.

Expect temperatures today and Monday above normal for this time
of year due, in part, to southerly flow. Look for mid to upper
80s with some lower 90s across our lower elevations.
Wyatt

.LONG TERM...Tuesday through next Sunday.
Models show a drying trend Tuesday through early Thursday. Models
then continue to show moisture moving back in the area late
Thursday into next weekend. Model clusters are in good agreement
in bringing an upper level low through the area on Saturday.
Temperatures will start the week near normal, if not slightly
above normal, and will stay that way through Thursday. Friday
temperatures, with precipitation chances returning, will start
trending downward and look to be 4 to 8 degrees below normal on
Saturday and Sunday, days where good precipitation chances are
expected.
Wyatt

&&

.AVIATION...
The primary impact to terminals and aircraft today will be strong
outflow winds from thunderstorms, which will range 45 to 55 kts. The
strongest storms are expected to be capable of producing pea to
nickel size hail and locally moderate to heavy rainfall. Outside of
storms, expect light to breezy winds with gusts to around 20 kts.
Showers will linger through late night before clouds clearing from
west to east overnight and during the morning hours.
Cropp

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Red Flag Warnings are in effect from 3 PM to 10 PM today for Fire
Weather Zones 410, 413, 422, 425, and 427 due to scattered
thunderstorm coverage. Thunderstorms will be capable of producing 50
to 60 mph outflow winds, locally moderate to heavy rainfall, and pea
to nickel size hail. Outside of thunderstorms, wind gusts will reach
up to around 25 mph. A drier air mass will move into central and
eastern Idaho tomorrow and Tuesday. More widespread minimum
humidities below 15% and wind gusts over 25 mph on Tuesday may
necessitate another Red Flag Warning for portions of central Idaho.
Cropp

&&

.AIR QUALITY...Southerly flow has cleared out our area, including
Custer County, bringing good air quality today. The HRRR model
continues to show good air quality across the area today with
southerly flow aloft, as long as there are no new fire starts.
This southerly flow aloft pattern should stay in place through
Monday, which will keep the smoke away from the area (again as
long as there are no new fire starts).
Wyatt

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning until 10 PM MDT this evening for IDZ410-413-422-
425-427.

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