High Wind Warning 1, NWS Pocatello, ID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
245 AM MST Sat Feb 24 2024

.SHORT TERM...Today through Monday Night.
Quiet and dry weather with plenty of sunshine will continue for
the last weekend of February as a series of weak shortwave
troughs pass to our north through Montana. These troughs will
support a slight chance of snow showers in the CNTRL Mountains and
ERN Highlands for both Saturday into early Sunday ahead of a more
organized storm system moving into the area starting Sunday night
into Monday. High temperatures this weekend will be seasonably
warm in the upper 30s to near 50 degrees in the mountain valleys
and in the mid 40s to low 60s across the Snake Plain and Magic
Valley.

Winds will begin to steadily increase later in the day Sunday
through the overnight hours as a well defined H5 trough descends
SE out of WRN Canada bringing a mix of rain, snow, and strong
winds to CNTRL and ERN Idaho. ECMWF and GFS 700 mb wind forecasts
remain in very good agreement showing a 50 to 60 kt jet shifting
overhead for Monday leading to widespread strong winds as
temperatures initially support a mix of rain and snow across our
lowest elevations. As a cold front descends through the region on
Monday, any rain will ultimately changeover to snow as colder air
filters in later in the day with the potential for snow squalls
embedded in this frontal boundary leading to near whiteout to
whiteout conditions with strong winds and heavy snow. The
strongest winds will shift south overnight Monday into Tuesday as
the corresponding 700 mb jet shifts out of our area as drier and
colder air builds in out of the north.

WINTER STORM WATCHES and HIGH WIND WATCHES remain in effect
starting Sunday night and continuing through early Tuesday
morning with the only changes on this shift being slight tweaks to
timing and converting the Raft River Valley, Albion
Mountain/South Hills, and Clark County zones to HIGH WINDS
WATCHES. While snow is expected areawide, the primary hazard will
center around strong winds where HIGH WIND WATCHES are in effect
with a mix of moderate to heavy snow and strong wind impacts
expected for WINTER STORM WATCHES. Widespread blowing and drifting
snow will be possible especially in the mountains leading to
difficult travel conditions in addition to moderate to heavy
precipitation at times. Wind gusts will peak around 40 to 60 mph
Monday afternoon into Monday night with locally higher gusts
approaching 60 to 70 mph. The latest snow forecast remains on
track with around a T-2 inches across the Snake Plain and SW
mountain valleys, 2-8 inches in mountain valleys, and 8-16 inches
in the mountains with locally higher totals. Driest conditions
continue to remain expected around the Arco/Mud Lake Desert,
Lost/Challis/Pahsimeroi Valleys, and around Clark County.

All of this said, expect some fluctuations on timing and products
while we get a better sampling of the low by actual observations
and higher resolution models over the weekend. In the meantime,
enjoy the beautiful weather this weekend! MacKay

.LONG TERM...Tuesday through next Saturday.
As the day begins Tuesday, lingering moisture from our Monday
system will still be in place producing some light snow. At this
point, it'll primarily be focused across the eastern highlands
with a few additional tenths of an inch possible. The area will
still reside in the base of an upper-level trough and temps will
remain quite chilly with most of the region below freezing for
daytime highs. The trough departs quickly overnight and into Wed
with H5 heights increasing drastically allowing for Wednesday
highs to be around 10 degrees warmer along with a break in precip,
although could still see some light precip across the higher
terrain of the central mountains and around Island Park. Warming
trend continues Thursday and into next weekend with moist
southwesterly flow in place over the region. Daytime highs in the
valleys should climb into the mid to upper 40s by this point
keeping any precip likely in the form of rain during this period.
There's still not a lot of confidence during this time though as
model spread remains larger than normal. That being said, ran with
the NBM for the time being and we'll see how things progress over
the days ahead. McKaughan

&&

.AVIATION...For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday.
Still have some potential overnight for low stratus around KIDA
and KDIJ but thus far, things have been quiet and VFR conditions
are prevailing across the region. Winds remain light overnight and
this will continue through the period, generally around 10 kts or
less. Not expecting any precipiation through the TAF period so
CIGs will be the primary concern for the next 24 hours. Winds and
precip will become more problematic late Sunday and into Monday
however as a potent system moves into eastern Idaho. McKaughan

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Wind Watch from late Sunday night through late Monday night
for IDZ051-054>057.

High Wind Watch from late Sunday night through Monday evening
for IDZ052-053-067-068-070.

Winter Storm Watch from late Sunday night through late Monday
night for IDZ058>066.

Winter Storm Watch from Sunday evening through Monday evening
for IDZ069-071>075.

&&