Special Marine Warning 92, NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
510 PM EDT Sat Aug 3 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A disturbance will pass through the region tonight, before a
cold front crosses through the area on Sunday. High pressure
builds back into the region on Sunday night into Monday, ahead
of another cold front that crosses through the region on Tuesday
before stalling to our south. Whatever is left of what is currently
Tropical Depression Four, may impact the Mid-Atlantic states for
the middle to end of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Flood watch and severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect
through this evening.

Made some minor adjustments to PoP based on current radar
trends. Otherwise, no significant changes with this forecast.
As storms have progressed into our region, they continue to be
prolific heavy rain producers, and training of storms has been a
concern. Thus, continue to have a concern for flash flooding,
primarily along and northwest of the I-95 corridor. In SE NJ and
for much of Delmarva, storms may not be as organized/long
lived, combined with the fact that our flash flood guidance is
higher, so that should limit the flooding threat in that area.
That being said, given the precipitable water values, can't rule
out the flooding threat anywhere.

As for the severe hazards, primary concern remains damaging winds
primarily in the mode of wet downbursts. That being said, despite
the very hot conditions at the boundary layer, there is substantial
instability in the hail growth layer and some storms have already
been tall enough to pose a severe hail threat as well. Low level
directional shear is minimal, so tornado threat also appears low.

No changes with the heat advisory. A few more hours of heating are
possible, but the threat should wane as storms approach and
certainly as we get closer to sunset.

Overnight lows mainly in the 70s. Some patchy fog may develop again
during the overnight hours, especially for areas that see rainfall
earlier from showers and thunderstorms.

On Sunday, the surface cold front and the mid and upper level trough
slowly progress eastward through the region. This will once again
result in showers and storms across the region. Unlike Friday and
Saturday though, the timing of these storms should be earlier in the
day. This will have a few implications. First, it appears that
excessive heat won't be a significant concern. Second, this could
help limit the severe risk. Heavy rain and flash flooding could
still be a concern as the dry air advection looks like it will lag
behind the front. Additionally, some areas may be primed from any
heavy rain today. For now though, will hold off on extending the
flood watch (or issuing a new watch) until we see how the antecedent
conditions play out today.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
By Sunday night, the cold front will be making its way through the
area, with any leftover showers and thunderstorms during the day
working their way toward the coast. All convective should be
offshore by midnight. Development of patchy fog is possible,
especially in areas that received rainfall during the day. Lows in
the upper 60s to mid 70s.

Afterward, high pressure will begin to nose in from the west and
settle near the area on Monday. This will yield mostly sunny skies
with high temps rebounding back into the low to mid 90s. Dew points
will be a bit lower compared to Sunday, mostly in the upper 60s.
Heat indicies will mostly range in the mid to upper 90s, so we'll
likely fall short of needing any heat headlines to start the
workweek. A slight chance of a shower or thunderstorm cannot be
ruled out, especially over the southern Poconos and northern New
Jersey as a weak disturbance crosses New York State during the
afternoon and evening hours. High pressure will only be temporary
and begin to depart on Monday night, giving way to increasing clouds
and the return to higher humidity levels with lows in the upper 60s
to mid 70s. Thus, it will feel quite warm and muggy on Monday
night.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The long term period looks to be quite active and strictly depends
on the evolution of high pressure to the north and what is currently
Tropical Depression Four to the south.

To start, low pressure will track north of the region on Tuesday
with a trailing cold front working its way through the area on
Tuesday night. This will likely bring another round of scattered
thunderstorms during the late afternoon to early evening hours from
north to south across the region. The front should clear the region
by Wednesday and stall nearby as high pressure builds to the north.

Thereafter, our attention turns to the tropical system over the
southeastern US. At this point, the forecast is highly dependent on
how the high pressure to the north and the tropical system interact.
Model to model run consistency has been persistent over the past few
days that the high to the north will essentially block TD4 from
heading out to sea, due to the lack of any upper level steering
current. So, while it is not certain there will be direct impacts
from the system itself at this time, there will definitely be at
least some tropical related moisture and potentially several rounds
of precipitation through the long term period. For this reason, have
included a chance for showers and storms (30-50%) areawide for
Wednesday through Saturday. A better indication on specific impacts
and the evolution is likely to occur early next week once more
information becomes available.

Temperatures during this period look to be near-normal on Tuesday
before becoming below-normal through the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Through late this evening...Mainly VFR. Showers and thunderstorms
developing in the afternoon causing some sub-VFR conditions. Storms
will be moving SW to NE, but the complex of storms will slowly shift
eastward with time. Therefore, expect TSRA impacts at KRDG and KABE
first, lingering the latest at KACY. SW winds 5-10 kts, except near
storms where variable and gusty winds will be possible. Moderate
confidence.

Tonight...Starting VFR once storms dissipate, or at least decrease
in coverage. After 06Z, Fog and low stratus may develop across the
region. SW winds 5 kts or less, or light and variable. Low
confidence.

Sunday...MVFR or lower conditions will be possible with storms.
Unlike Saturday, the storms may develop earlier and affect TAF sites
earlier in the day. Winds prevailing out of the SW less than 10 KT.
Moderate confidence.

Outlook...

Sunday night through Monday night...Primarily VFR. No significant
weather expected other than some patchy fog possible on Sunday night.

Tuesday through Thursday...Sub-VFR conditions possible with several
rounds of rain and thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
Small Craft Advisory remains in effect through 6 AM on the Atlantic
Coastal waters. Beyond that time period, seas may be close to the 5
ft mark, but low confidence, so have held off on issuing an SCA at
this time.

Outlook...

Sunday night through Tuesday...No marine headlines expected. There
will likely be periods of 5 foot seas further offshore Sunday night
and Monday night, but for the majority, conditions should remain
below SCA thresholds.

Tuesday night through Thursday...Small Craft Advisory conditions
possible mainly due to seas around 5 feet on the ocean waters.
Several rounds of showers and thunderstorms possible.

Rip Currents...

For Sunday, a new moon occurs. While south winds may not be as
strong on Sunday and the wave heights should be a touch lower,
will keep a MODERATE risk for the development of dangerous rip
currents for the Jersey Shore and the Delaware Beaches.

On Monday, There may be a lingering Moderate risk for the
central and southern New Jersey shore, but for the northern New
Jersey shore and the Delaware Beaches, rip current risk may
be a bit lower.

For specific beach forecasts, visit weather.gov/beach/phi

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for PAZ070-071-102-
     104-106.
     Flood Watch until midnight EDT tonight for PAZ054-055-060>062-
     070-071-101>106.
NJ...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NJZ010-012-013-
     015-017>020-027.
     Flood Watch until midnight EDT tonight for NJZ001-007>010-
     012>020-026-027.
DE...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for DEZ001.
     Flood Watch until midnight EDT tonight for DEZ001.
MD...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ450>455.

&&

SYNOPSIS...DeSilva/MPS
NEAR TERM...Johnson
SHORT TERM...DeSilva
LONG TERM...DeSilva/MPS
AVIATION...DeSilva/Johnson
MARINE...DeSilva/Johnson

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
505 PM EDT Sat Aug 3 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0443 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     2 WNW District Twp      40.46N 75.69W
08/03/2024                   Berks              PA   Fire Dept/Rescue

            Trees down on wires along Five Points Road
            in Rockland Township. Time estimated from
            radar.

&&

Hoeflich

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
506 PM EDT Sat Aug 3 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0427 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     Ruscombmanor Twp        40.42N 75.83W
08/03/2024                   Berks              PA   Fire Dept/Rescue

            Several trees and wires down around
            Ruscombmanor Township, PA. Time estimated
            from radar.

&&

Hoeflich

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
551 PM EDT Sat Aug 3 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0925 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     Carneys Point Twp       39.72N 75.47W
08/02/2024                   Salem              NJ   Trained Spotter

            Delayed Report: Several photos sent in from
            a trained spotter of trees down throughout
            Carneys Point. Time estimated from radar.

&&

DeSilva

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