Special Marine Warning 113, NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly

957 
FZUS71 KPHI 020420
MWSPHI

Marine Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
1220 AM EDT Mon Sep 2 2024

ANZ473-475-020430-
/O.EXP.KPHI.MA.W.0113.000000T0000Z-240902T0430Z/
1220 AM EDT Mon Sep 2 2024

...THE SPECIAL MARINE WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 1230 AM EDT...

The affected areas were... 
Outer waters from Great Egg Inlet NJ to Fenwick Island DE out 20 to
40 nm...

The thunderstorm has weakened and no longer poses a significant
threat to boaters.

LAT...LON 3863 7471 3881 7394 3878 7396 3873 7404
      3870 7415 3861 7417 3855 7422 3851 7426
      3845 7426 3841 7468
TIME...MOT...LOC 0420Z 255DEG 25KT 3865 7405 

$$

Fitzsimmons

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
938 PM EDT Sun Sep 1 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front moves across the area later tonight. High pressure
builds out of the Great Lakes region during Monday and into the
Northeast and Mid-Atlantic states Tuesday and Wednesday, before
shifting to the northeast late in the week. A low pressure
system moving up from the south may affect our area for the end
of the week into next weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
930 PM update...
No significant changes from the 7 PM forecast adjustment. Front
is racing southeastward, visible pretty clearly in radar
imagery, and with fairly high dew points still in place,
definitely potential for a few stray showers from Philly on
south until passage after midnight. From then on, breezy,
turning cooler and most importantly, drying out.

7 PM discussion...
Through this evening, expecting continued very limited coverage of
showers and storms through the evening. Downburst potential (and
even thunder potential) appears to be reducing but could briefly
return with the actual frontal passage overnight. Overall
though, looking like a majority of the region will see little,
if any, rain, with best chance of additional rain being across
southern Delaware.

The cold front will push offshore by daybreak. Cold and dry air
advection will quickly develop in the wake of the front - for a
rare case of dew point temperatures decreasing through the
overnight hours. Highs tomorrow should be 5 to 10 degrees lower
than Sunday, ranging from the upper 60s to lower 80s. Clouds may
linger through daybreak, but should see clearing skies through
the morning, resulting in a mostly sunny day. It will be
noticeably breezy as well, with gusts of 20-25 mph.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
High pressure settles across the northeast and Mid Atlantic
states through Wednesday, bringing a string of cool days with
low humidity. Monday night will see temperatures fall into the
upper 40s to mid 50s with upper 50s in the Philly metro area. A
light N-NW breeze is expected to keep overnight temperatures
from completely cratering, but clear skies will still provide
efficient radiational cooling. Tuesday and Tuesday night will be
less windy than Monday and continue to be dry days as the high
will be over the region. Temperatures will be near to a little
below average for this time of year with low humidity. High
pressure begins to shift offshore Wednesday, allowing for weak
return flow to begin during the afternoon. Warmer temperatures
will result, but still a few degrees below climo.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
High pressure continues to shift offshore to the north and east
Wednesday night into Thursday, but still nosing its way into
our area, keeping the weather dry. Temperatures will gradually
warm Thursday as well with return flow developing.

More uncertainty for the end of the week into the weekend due
to an approaching cold front from the west and possible low
pressure lifting northward from our south. Latest guidance shows
better agreement that this low will bring the area rain,
potentially even some heavy rain, around the Friday/Saturday
time frame. That said, there remains uncertainty regarding the
exact speed and timing of the system. For this reason, we stayed
close to NBM forecast which keeps mainly chance POPs in the
forecast for Friday through Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas..

Tonight...Prevailing VFR. Still a few showers or an isolated
t-storm possible mainly KACY but possibly up to near KPHL, but
dry further northwest. Expect an abrupt shift to NNW winds
around 10 kts as a cold front moves through from northwest to
southeast. Could be a brief period of gusts of 20-25 kts with
frontal passage. Moderate confidence.

Monday...VFR with NW winds 10 to 15 kts, and gusts up to 20 kts.

Outlook...

Monday Night-Thursday...VFR conditions.

Friday...Mostly VFR with afternoon showers and thunderstorms
possible.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds and seas are generally expected to stay below Small Craft
Advisory conditions, though some showers and thunderstorms are
possible tonight for the bay and coastal waters, mainly adjacent
to far southern NJ and DE.

Outlook...

Monday-Thursday...SCA conditions looking more likely Monday
night behind the cold front with decent northerly flow, with
gusts of 25+ knots possible and seas possibly up to 5 ft
offshore. Sub-SCA otherwise through Thursday.

Friday...SCA conditions possible with seas building to 3-5 feet
with a long fetch of easterly winds gusting to around 20 knots.

Rip currents...

Through Tuesday....Southerly winds will become north to
northeast later tonight and continue through Tuesday at 10-20
mph, although the winds may diminish some Tuesday especially
across the northern New Jersey Shore. Breaking waves in the surf
zone are forecast to be around 2 feet. As a result, a LOW risk
for the development of dangerous rip currents continues for both
the New Jersey Shore and the Delaware Beaches.

For specific beach forecasts, visit weather.gov/beach/phi

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...MJL
NEAR TERM...Johnson/RCM
SHORT TERM...MJL
LONG TERM...MJL
AVIATION...Johnson/MJL/RCM
MARINE...Gorse/Johnson/MJL/RCM

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
600 PM EDT Sun Sep 1 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0400 PM     Marine Tstm Wind 19 E Fenwick Island     38.46N 74.70W
09/01/2024  M49 MPH          ANZ475             DE   Buoy

            Buoy 44009.

&&

Staarmann