Special Marine Warning 112, NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
828 PM EDT Wed Aug 28 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will continue to move south across the region
overnight, then stall south and west of the region into Friday.
It will return, as a warm front, and move back across the
region Friday night into Saturday. Another cold front will move
into the region and then wash out Saturday night with another,
more potent cold front moving through by early on Labor Day.
High pressure then returns for next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...

A cold front perched just north of the area will push south
overnight as it moves thru showers and tstms will become more
common during the overnight before diminishing late. One severe
tstm is presently cutting thru Somerset and into Middlesex
counties with gusty winds. Other storms will move across
Delmarva later with still a small possibility of some gusty
winds and hail. Pops/weather grids have been adjusted
accordingly. After the rains end, low clouds will continue as
colder air aloft arrives on a cool North to Northeast flow. This
front will bring an end to the excessive heat of the past day.
The Heat related flags have been expired.

Much, if not all, of the precip should be out of here by dawn,
but some light mist or drizzle may persist, along with low clouds,
a fair chunk of the day. Spotty convection developing in the warm
sector west of us may start moving in later on Thursday as well,
but it should overall weaken as it moves into the cool wedge over
our region by then.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Surface high pressure centered north of the Great Lakes region
Thursday will move eastward with time. As this surface high shifts
eastward and offshore of the Canadian Maritimes later Friday, a warm
front is invited to approach the region. A stationary front looks to
linger south of the area into Friday before the warm front
approaches Friday into Friday night. Some weak surface low pressure
may ride along the stationary front during the time frame it remains
to our south.

Given the synoptic situation described, the short term looks
unsettled but not overly impactful. Mainly slight chance and chance
PoPs into Friday; isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms
possible through much of the time frame. Nothing to note at this
time from WPC or SPC regarding any excessive rainfall or severe
weather potential.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The synoptic situation is fairly straightforward for the long term.
A primary cold front looks to cross through the region sometime this
weekend (most likely Saturday night into Sunday) before a secondary
cold front crosses through thereafter (looking like Sunday night
into Monday). Surface high pressure from the west/northwest then
begins to build in to the region, migrating eastward with time.
Forecaster confidence in this synoptic evolution is high overall,
while lower confidence remains in the exact timing of features
(e.g., fronts) based on available guidance.

Overall, expect a fairly active weather weekend with a dry forecast
for the beginning of the week into midweek. Primary cold front will
likely bring widespread showers and thunderstorms to the region
Saturday into Sunday as it crosses through. The timing of the
primary cold front will need to be monitored closely as it may carry
a severe weather potential if timing is coincides with peak diurnal
heating. The secondary cold front to follow will likely be less
impactful, but will continue with a chance of showers and
thunderstorms through at least Sunday. Depending on the speed and
timing of the cold fronts, Labor Day could shape up to be a very
nice day with seasonable temperatures and low humidity. At the very
least, much of next week looks to be very comfortable with low
humidity and temperatures slightly below average.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Through tonight...VFR lowering to MVFR overnight at the
terminals even some IFR (high end) possible for KPHL/KPNE/KILG
and also KMIV/KACY. Scattered tstms early then scattered showers
late. SW/W winds shifting to N/NE overnight and increasing 10 to
15 kts. Low confid overall.

Thursday...MVFR cigs likely persist a fair chunk of the day as
back door cold front stalls to our southwest, with northeasterly
to easterly winds 5-10 kts. Cigs may lift to VFR in places at
times during the afternoon. Mostly dry though an isolated shower
is possible, especially out towards KRDG. Moderate confidence.

Outlook...

Thursday night through Friday night...Mainly VFR with some stray
showers possible. No significant weather expected.

Saturday through Monday...Should primarily remain VFR, with
intervals of sub-VFR conditions due to shower and thunderstorm
potential, most notably Saturday into Sunday.

&&

.MARINE...
Generally sub-advisory winds and seas through most of tonight,
outside of any gusty thunderstorms which may necessitate special
marine warnings tonight. With strong north to northeast push
behind passing cold front late tonight through Thursday, winds
will be near 25 kts with seas building to 5-6 feet. Thus have
issued Small Craft Advisory for ocean zones starting Thursday
morning, though further south it may not begin until later in
the day.

Outlook...

Thursday night...A Small Craft Advisory is in effect through
Thursday night for the Atlantic coastal waters due to seas
lingering around 5 feet. No headlines warranted for the
Delaware Bay.

Friday through Monday...No marine headlines anticipated. Showers and
thunderstorms possible through the period, most likely Saturday into
Sunday.

Rip Currents...

Tonight into tomorrow, winds will become northeasterly and
increase. This will be directly onshore for the coast line from
LBI northward. Consequently there is a MODERATE risk for those
areas, while a LOW risk is expected for the rest of the coast
line. We will continue with this same forecast for Friday as
there will be little in the pattern as onshore flow persists.

For specific beach forecasts, visit weather.gov/beach/phi

&&

.CLIMATE...
One high temperature record for Wednesday. Georgetown, DE tied
the high of 98 degrees. Here are the other records for reference.

Record High Temperatures for August 28th:

SITE               RECORD/YEAR
Allentown (ABE)........97/1973
AC Airport (ACY).......97/1973
AC Marina (55N)........96/1973
Georgetown (GED).......98/1948 * Tied today.
Mount Pocono (MPO).....90/1953
Philadelphia (PHL).....99/1973
Reading (RDG)..........99/1948
Trenton (TTN)..........98/1973
Wilmington (ILG)......100/1973

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Air Quality Alert until 11 PM EDT this evening for PAZ070-071-
     101>106.
NJ...Air Quality Alert until 11 PM EDT this evening for NJZ012>027.
DE...None.
MD...Air Quality Alert until 11 PM EDT this evening for MDZ012-015-
     019-020.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM Thursday to 6 AM EDT Friday for
     ANZ450>455.

&&

SYNOPSIS...DeSilva/RCM/po
NEAR TERM...RCM/po
SHORT TERM...DeSilva/Wunderlin
LONG TERM...DeSilva/Wunderlin
AVIATION...DeSilva/RCM/po
MARINE...DeSilva/RCM
CLIMATE...Staff

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