Small Craft Advisory 81, NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly

855 
WHUS71 KPHI 080816
MWWPHI

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
316 AM EST Fri Nov 8 2024

ANZ450>453-082300-
/O.EXT.KPHI.SC.Y.0081.241108T2300Z-241109T1400Z/
Coastal waters from Sandy Hook to Manasquan Inlet NJ out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Manasquan Inlet to Little Egg Inlet NJ out
20 nm-
Coastal waters from Little Egg Inlet to Great Egg Inlet NJ out
20 nm-
Coastal waters from Great Egg Inlet to Cape May NJ out 20 nm-
316 AM EST Fri Nov 8 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO
9 AM EST SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Northwest winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt and 
  seas 3 to 5 ft expected.

* WHERE...Coastal waters from Sandy Hook to Manasquan Inlet NJ 
  out 20 nm, Coastal waters from Manasquan Inlet to Little Egg 
  Inlet NJ out 20 nm, Coastal waters from Little Egg Inlet to 
  Great Egg Inlet NJ out 20 nm and Coastal waters from Great Egg 
  Inlet to Cape May NJ out 20 nm.

* WHEN...From 6 PM this evening to 9 AM EST Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ454-455-082300-
/O.EXT.KPHI.SC.Y.0081.241108T2300Z-241109T1400Z/
Coastal waters from Cape May NJ to Cape Henlopen DE out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Cape Henlopen to Fenwick Island DE out 20 nm-
316 AM EST Fri Nov 8 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO
9 AM EST SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Northwest winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt and 
  seas 3 to 5 ft expected.

* WHERE...Coastal waters from Cape May NJ to Cape Henlopen DE 
  out 20 nm and Coastal waters from Cape Henlopen to Fenwick 
  Island DE out 20 nm.

* WHEN...From 6 PM this evening to 9 AM EST Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ430-431-082300-
/O.EXT.KPHI.SC.Y.0081.241108T2300Z-241109T1200Z/
Delaware Bay waters north of East Point NJ to Slaughter Beach DE-
Delaware Bay waters south of East Point NJ to Slaughter Beach DE-
316 AM EST Fri Nov 8 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO
7 AM EST SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Northwest winds 10 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt and 
  choppy waters expected.

* WHERE...Delaware Bay waters north of East Point NJ to 
  Slaughter Beach DE and Delaware Bay waters south of East Point 
  NJ to Slaughter Beach DE.

* WHEN...From 6 PM this evening to 7 AM EST Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

MPS

690 
WHUS71 KPHI 082009
MWWPHI

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
309 PM EST Fri Nov 8 2024

ANZ450>453-091000-
/O.CON.KPHI.SC.Y.0081.241108T2300Z-241109T1400Z/
Coastal waters from Sandy Hook to Manasquan Inlet NJ out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Manasquan Inlet to Little Egg Inlet NJ out
20 nm-
Coastal waters from Little Egg Inlet to Great Egg Inlet NJ out
20 nm-
Coastal waters from Great Egg Inlet to Cape May NJ out 20 nm-
309 PM EST Fri Nov 8 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM EST
SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Northwest winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt and 
  seas 3 to 5 ft expected.

* WHERE...Coastal waters from Sandy Hook to Cape May NJ out 20 
  nm.

* WHEN...Until 9 AM EST Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ454-455-091000-
/O.CON.KPHI.SC.Y.0081.241108T2300Z-241109T1400Z/
Coastal waters from Cape May NJ to Cape Henlopen DE out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Cape Henlopen to Fenwick Island DE out 20 nm-
309 PM EST Fri Nov 8 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM EST
SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Northwest winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt and 
  seas 3 to 5 ft expected.

* WHERE...Coastal waters from Cape May NJ to Fenwick Island DE 
  out 20 nm.

* WHEN...Until 9 AM EST Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ430-431-091000-
/O.CON.KPHI.SC.Y.0081.241108T2300Z-241109T1200Z/
Delaware Bay waters north of East Point NJ to Slaughter Beach DE-
Delaware Bay waters south of East Point NJ to Slaughter Beach DE-
309 PM EST Fri Nov 8 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST
SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Northwest winds 10 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt and 
  choppy waters expected.

* WHERE...Delaware Bay.

* WHEN...Until 7 AM EST Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

981 
WHUS71 KPHI 090101
MWWPHI

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
801 PM EST Fri Nov 8 2024

ANZ450>453-091300-
/O.CON.KPHI.SC.Y.0081.000000T0000Z-241109T1400Z/
Coastal waters from Sandy Hook to Manasquan Inlet NJ out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Manasquan Inlet to Little Egg Inlet NJ out
20 nm-
Coastal waters from Little Egg Inlet to Great Egg Inlet NJ out
20 nm-
Coastal waters from Great Egg Inlet to Cape May NJ out 20 nm-
801 PM EST Fri Nov 8 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM EST
SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Northwest winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt and 
  seas 3 to 5 ft.

* WHERE...Coastal waters from Sandy Hook to Cape May NJ out 20 
  nm.

* WHEN...Until 9 AM EST Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft. Winds
  will increase by midnight with a few gusts of 30 to 35 kts
  possible. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ454-455-091300-
/O.CON.KPHI.SC.Y.0081.000000T0000Z-241109T1400Z/
Coastal waters from Cape May NJ to Cape Henlopen DE out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Cape Henlopen to Fenwick Island DE out 20 nm-
801 PM EST Fri Nov 8 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM EST
SATURDAY...

* WHAT...North winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt and seas 
  3 to 5 ft.

* WHERE...Coastal waters from Cape May NJ to Fenwick Island DE 
  out 20 nm.

* WHEN...Until 9 AM EST Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft. Winds
  will increase shortly after midnight with a few gusts of 30 to 
  35 kts possible.
  

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ430-431-091200-
/O.CON.KPHI.SC.Y.0081.000000T0000Z-241109T1200Z/
Delaware Bay waters north of East Point NJ to Slaughter Beach DE-
Delaware Bay waters south of East Point NJ to Slaughter Beach DE-
801 PM EST Fri Nov 8 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST
SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Northwest winds 10 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt and 
  choppy waters.

* WHERE...Delaware Bay.

* WHEN...Until 7 AM EST Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft. Winds
  will increase by midnight with a few gusts of 30 to 35 kts
  possible. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

437 
WHUS71 KPHI 090816
MWWPHI

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
316 AM EST Sat Nov 9 2024

ANZ450>453-091500-
/O.EXT.KPHI.SC.Y.0081.000000T0000Z-241109T1800Z/
Coastal waters from Sandy Hook to Manasquan Inlet NJ out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Manasquan Inlet to Little Egg Inlet NJ out
20 nm-
Coastal waters from Little Egg Inlet to Great Egg Inlet NJ out
20 nm-
Coastal waters from Great Egg Inlet to Cape May NJ out 20 nm-
316 AM EST Sat Nov 9 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...North winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt and seas 
  3 to 6 ft.

* WHERE...Coastal waters from Sandy Hook to Manasquan Inlet NJ 
  out 20 nm, Coastal waters from Manasquan Inlet to Little Egg 
  Inlet NJ out 20 nm, Coastal waters from Little Egg Inlet to 
  Great Egg Inlet NJ out 20 nm and Coastal waters from Great Egg 
  Inlet to Cape May NJ out 20 nm.

* WHEN...Until 1 PM EST this afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ454-455-091500-
/O.EXT.KPHI.SC.Y.0081.000000T0000Z-241109T1800Z/
Coastal waters from Cape May NJ to Cape Henlopen DE out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Cape Henlopen to Fenwick Island DE out 20 nm-
316 AM EST Sat Nov 9 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...North winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt and seas 
  3 to 6 ft.

* WHERE...Coastal waters from Cape May NJ to Cape Henlopen DE 
  out 20 nm and Coastal waters from Cape Henlopen to Fenwick 
  Island DE out 20 nm.

* WHEN...Until 1 PM EST this afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ430-431-091500-
/O.EXT.KPHI.SC.Y.0081.000000T0000Z-241109T1500Z/
Delaware Bay waters north of East Point NJ to Slaughter Beach DE-
Delaware Bay waters south of East Point NJ to Slaughter Beach DE-
316 AM EST Sat Nov 9 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS
MORNING...

* WHAT...North winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt and 
  rough waters.

* WHERE...Delaware Bay waters north of East Point NJ to 
  Slaughter Beach DE and Delaware Bay waters south of East Point 
  NJ to Slaughter Beach DE.

* WHEN...Until 10 AM EST this morning.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

MPS

540 
WHUS71 KPHI 091449
MWWPHI

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
949 AM EST Sat Nov 9 2024

ANZ430-431-091600-
/O.EXP.KPHI.SC.Y.0081.000000T0000Z-241109T1500Z/
Delaware Bay waters north of East Point NJ to Slaughter Beach DE-
Delaware Bay waters south of East Point NJ to Slaughter Beach DE-
949 AM EST Sat Nov 9 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 10 AM EST THIS MORNING...

Winds will continue to diminish through this morning into the
afternoon. Therefore the Small Craft Advisory will be allowed to
expire at 10 am.

$$

ANZ450>453-091800-
/O.CON.KPHI.SC.Y.0081.000000T0000Z-241109T1800Z/
Coastal waters from Sandy Hook to Manasquan Inlet NJ out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Manasquan Inlet to Little Egg Inlet NJ out
20 nm-
Coastal waters from Little Egg Inlet to Great Egg Inlet NJ out
20 nm-
Coastal waters from Great Egg Inlet to Cape May NJ out 20 nm-
949 AM EST Sat Nov 9 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...North winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts 25 to 30 kt and seas 
  3 to 6 ft.

* WHERE...Coastal waters from Sandy Hook to Manasquan Inlet NJ 
  out 20 nm, Coastal waters from Manasquan Inlet to Little Egg 
  Inlet NJ out 20 nm, Coastal waters from Little Egg Inlet to 
  Great Egg Inlet NJ out 20 nm and Coastal waters from Great Egg 
  Inlet to Cape May NJ out 20 nm.

* WHEN...Until 1 PM EST this afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ454-455-091800-
/O.CON.KPHI.SC.Y.0081.000000T0000Z-241109T1800Z/
Coastal waters from Cape May NJ to Cape Henlopen DE out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Cape Henlopen to Fenwick Island DE out 20 nm-
949 AM EST Sat Nov 9 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...North winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts 25 to 30 kt and seas 
  3 to 6 ft.

* WHERE...Coastal waters from Cape May NJ to Cape Henlopen DE 
  out 20 nm and Coastal waters from Cape Henlopen to Fenwick 
  Island DE out 20 nm.

* WHEN...Until 1 PM EST this afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

850 
WHUS71 KPHI 091759
MWWPHI

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
1259 PM EST Sat Nov 9 2024

ANZ450>453-091900-
/O.EXP.KPHI.SC.Y.0081.000000T0000Z-241109T1800Z/
Coastal waters from Sandy Hook to Manasquan Inlet NJ out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Manasquan Inlet to Little Egg Inlet NJ out
20 nm-
Coastal waters from Little Egg Inlet to Great Egg Inlet NJ out
20 nm-
Coastal waters from Great Egg Inlet to Cape May NJ out 20 nm-
1259 PM EST Sat Nov 9 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON...

Winds will continue to diminish through this morning into the
afternoon. Therefore the Small Craft Advisory will be allowed to
expire.

$$

ANZ454-455-092100-
/O.EXT.KPHI.SC.Y.0081.000000T0000Z-241109T2100Z/
Coastal waters from Cape May NJ to Cape Henlopen DE out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Cape Henlopen to Fenwick Island DE out 20 nm-
1259 PM EST Sat Nov 9 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...North winds 10 to 15 kt with seas around 5 ft.

* WHERE...Coastal waters from Cape May NJ to Cape Henlopen DE 
  out 20 nm and Coastal waters from Cape Henlopen to Fenwick 
  Island DE out 20 nm.

* WHEN...Until 4 PM EST this afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

554 
WHUS71 KPHI 091956
MWWPHI

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
256 PM EST Sat Nov 9 2024

ANZ454-455-100900-
/O.CAN.KPHI.SC.Y.0081.000000T0000Z-241109T2100Z/
/O.NEW.KPHI.SC.Y.0082.241110T1800Z-241111T1100Z/
Coastal waters from Cape May NJ to Cape Henlopen DE out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Cape Henlopen to Fenwick Island DE out 20 nm-
256 PM EST Sat Nov 9 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM SUNDAY TO 6 AM EST
MONDAY...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts 25 to 30 kt and
  seas 4 to 6 ft expected.

* WHERE...Coastal waters from Cape May NJ to Cape Henlopen DE 
  out 20 nm and Coastal waters from Cape Henlopen to Fenwick 
  Island DE out 20 nm.

* WHEN...From 1 PM Sunday to 6 AM EST Monday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ450>453-100900-
/O.NEW.KPHI.SC.Y.0082.241110T1800Z-241111T1100Z/
Coastal waters from Sandy Hook to Manasquan Inlet NJ out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Manasquan Inlet to Little Egg Inlet NJ out
20 nm-
Coastal waters from Little Egg Inlet to Great Egg Inlet NJ out
20 nm-
Coastal waters from Great Egg Inlet to Cape May NJ out 20 nm-
256 PM EST Sat Nov 9 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM SUNDAY TO 6 AM EST
MONDAY...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts 25 to 30 kt and
  seas 4 to 6 ft expected.

* WHERE...Coastal waters from Sandy Hook to Manasquan Inlet NJ 
  out 20 nm, Coastal waters from Manasquan Inlet to Little Egg 
  Inlet NJ out 20 nm, Coastal waters from Little Egg Inlet to 
  Great Egg Inlet NJ out 20 nm and Coastal waters from Great Egg 
  Inlet to Cape May NJ out 20 nm.

* WHEN...From 1 PM Sunday to 6 AM EST Monday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ430-431-100900-
/O.NEW.KPHI.SC.Y.0082.241110T2300Z-241111T1100Z/
Delaware Bay waters north of East Point NJ to Slaughter Beach DE-
Delaware Bay waters south of East Point NJ to Slaughter Beach DE-
256 PM EST Sat Nov 9 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM SUNDAY TO 6 AM EST
MONDAY...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 10 to 20 kt with gusts 25 to 30 kt and 
  choppy waters expected.

* WHERE...Delaware Bay waters north of East Point NJ to 
  Slaughter Beach DE and Delaware Bay waters south of East Point 
  NJ to Slaughter Beach DE.

* WHEN...From 6 PM Sunday to 6 AM EST Monday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
1101 AM EST Thu Nov 7 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold front will cross our through the evening before it
dissipates just to our south tonight. Another weak and dry cold
front moves through Friday. A warm front lifts north of our area
later Sunday, then a cold front crosses our area during Monday.
High pressure then builds in for Tuesday into Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
The front is crossing the area with few clouds and just a wind
shift associated. The chance for any rains have passed and were
removed from todays grids. Minor wind and temps edits however to
adjust to current obs.

Behind the front, northwest winds increase to around 15 mph
with 20 to 25 mph gusts. Cold air advection will not develop
until late tonight, so another warm day is on tap for the area.
Highs will top off in the low 70s north and west of the Fall
Line, and in the mid and upper 70s south and east of the Fall
Line. A few high temperature records may be set today, but not
nearly as many that were set on Wednesday.

Although cold air advection will not develop until tonight, a
drier airmass will spread into the region this afternoon with
dew points falling into the upper 40s and low 50s, except dew
points remain in the upper 50s to around 60 for Delmarva and
extreme southeast New Jersey.

Winds diminish fairly quickly after sunset with loss of diurnal
heating. With winds becoming nearly calm and with skies
clearing out, temperatures should drop into the 40s to low 50s
prior to midnight, and then overnight lows will be in the upper
30s to low 40s, except for Philadelphia, Delmarva, and along the
coasts where lows will be in the mid and upper 40s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
The warmth continues Friday followed by cooling to start the
weekend. Dry conditions also continue, with the core of the very dry
air occurring on Saturday.

An upper-level trough is forecast to amplify Friday across the
Northeast, taking surface low pressure north of northern New
England. An associated weak cold front looks to cross our area later
in the day Friday, although the forcing is to our north and moisture
is lacking and therefore a dry frontal passage is expected. There
will be a notable tightening of the pressure gradient associated
with this system, and with a warming boundary layer the vertical
mixing will deepen during the daytime hours. As a result, a breezy
day is expected with wind gusts in the 20-30 mph range. The air mass
will dry out more during the course of the day as dew points lower
through the 40s and 30s, with even drier air arriving at night. A
cooler air mass then settles in Friday night as the winds gradually
diminish.

As we go through Saturday, a ridge aloft crests over our region
Saturday night and sprawling surface high pressure initially over
our area then shifts offshore by Sunday morning. While a much cooler
air mass will accompany the surface high, temperatures should be at
or just above average. A very dry air mass is forecast to be in
place with dew points down into the 20s for much of the region
during the day. As the low-level flow (light) starts to turn out of
the southeast at night, the surface dew points should start to
increase some especially across the coastal plain. The main arrival
of increasing low-level moisture however looks delayed until during
Sunday. Mostly some high level clouds will start to increase at
night.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Summary...Above average temperatures are forecast; Some much needed
rain is probable later Sunday into Monday.

Synoptic Overview...The axis of an upper-level ridge is forecast to
slide offshore of the East Coast to start Sunday. As this is occurs,
an upper-level trough or even a closed low is forecast to lift
across the Plains to the Midwest through Sunday and then slide
across New England and vicinity on Monday. The flow aloft goes more
zonal later Monday into Tuesday, however a trough amplifies across
the Northeast Tuesday before upper-level ridging arrives Wednesday.
At the surface, high pressure is forecast to be centered offshore
Sunday and this assists in more of a return flow. A warm front lifts
north across our area later Sunday, then a cold front moves through
during Monday. High pressure then arrives for Tuesday into Wednesday.

For Sunday and Monday...An upper-level trough or closed low tracks
from the Central Plains to the Midwest through Sunday then it
continues to lift northeastward across New England and vicinity
through Monday. Surface low pressure associated with it is forecast
to track to our north with a cold front crossing our area Monday.
Some of the guidance that had a weaker and farther north track of
the upper-level trough/closed low have trended stronger and farther
east with it now. The more eastward and stronger guidance provides
more forcing for ascent across our area with much more shower
activity. At least some mid to high level moisture from Hurricane
Rafael in the Gulf of Mexico may get drawn into this system, however
these details are less certain given split guidance on where the
hurricane actually tracks. There continues to be an increasing
chance for widespread shower activity later Sunday into Monday,
which would bring much needed rain to the our region. As of now,
0.25-0.50 inches of rain for the area. Showers look to start during
mostly the second half of Sunday, especially at night, with the
arrival of a warm front, an upper-level jet approaching with some
forcing and with a low-level jet aiding in stronger warm air
advection (PoPs increase to the 70-80 percent range). Instability
looks very minimal as the air mass will be recovering from the
initially rather dry low to mid level environment and therefore no
thunder included in the forecast. Temperatures are forecast to be at
or above average ahead of this cold front Sunday, then well above
average Monday with a lag in the cold air advection. Some clearing
should take place from northwest to southeast Monday as drier air
starts to overspread the area in the wake of the cold front.

For Tuesday and Wednesday...The flow aloft may try to go more zonal
for a time however a trough may amplify some across the Northeast
Tuesday. Some ridging aloft then arrives from the west into
Wednesday. This will drive surface high pressure into our area
during this time, although its center may become more shifted to our
north into Wednesday. The next upper-level trough across the Plains
and Midwest will drive surface low pressure across the Midwest to
north of the upper Great Lakes during Wednesday and Wednesday night.
An associated warm front and then cold front are forecast to be
approaching our area later Wednesday night. While some cooling takes
place, temperatures are still forecast to be above average.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Today...VFR with skies mostly SKC or perhaps SCT050. NW winds
increasing to around 15 kt with 20 to 25 kt gusts shortly. High
confidence.

Tonight...VFR/SKC. NW winds 5 kt or less. High confidence.

Outlook...

Friday and Saturday...VFR. Westerly winds 10-15 knots with gusts 20-
25 knots Friday diminishing at night, then northerly and lighter on
Saturday.

Sunday and Monday...A period of sub-VFR conditions probable along
with some showers, mainly later Sunday into Monday morning.

&&

.MARINE...
Sub-Small Craft Advisory conditions on tap for today and tonight. A
cold front will move across the waters late this morning. SW winds 5
to 10 kt ahead of the front, becoming NW 10 to 15 kt with gusts up
to 20 kt this afternoon. Winds become N tonight. Seas around 3
ft.

Outlook...

Friday and Saturday...Small Craft Advisory conditions, mainly wind
gusts, are forecast Friday night into Saturday morning.

Sunday and Monday...A mainly brief period of near Small Craft
Advisory wind gusts are possible later Sunday into Monday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A cold front will move through the region later this morning,
and a drier airmass will spread into the region this afternoon.
Surface dew points drop from the upper 50s to low 60s early this
morning to the 40s to low 50s for most of the area this
afternoon, except for Delmarva, where it will take some time for
the drier air to arrive. It will still be warm with highs in
the 70s to near 80. This results in MinRH values generally 35 to
45 percent. Northwest winds will increase this afternoon to 10
to 15 mph with 20 to 25 mph gusts. Winds diminish fairly quickly
after sunset this evening.

For Friday and Saturday, daytime minimum relative humidity
values are forecast to range from 25 to 35 percent. Westerly
winds increase to 10-20 mph with gusts 25-30 mph during the day
Friday, then gradually diminish Friday night. A lighter
northerly wind is forecast for Saturday. Given the continued
very dry conditions and increased winds, there is an increased
risk for rapid fire spread on Friday.

Showers are forecast to result in a wetting rain later Sunday
into Monday.

Continue to follow burn restrictions and check with your state
and local fire officials for more information.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Temperatures may near record territory today in some spots.

Record High Temperatures for November 7th:

SITE                 RECORD / YEAR
Allentown (ABE)..........74 / 1938
AC Airport (ACY).........81 / 2022
AC Marina (55N)..........80 / 2022
Georgetown (GED..........83 / 2022
Mount Pocono (MPO).......71 / 2020
Philadelphia (PHL).......79 / 2022
Reading (RDG)............76 / 2022
Trenton (TTN)............76 / 2022
Wilmington (ILG).........80 / 2022

Record stretch (consecutive days) without measurable
precipitation:

                                            CURRENT
SITE                 RECORD  RECORD DATES  THRU 11/6
AC Airport (ACY)    34 days  Aug-Sep 1995   35 days
AC Marina (55N)     39 days  Aug-Sep 1995   36 days
Georgetown (GED)    34 days  Oct-Nov 2001   40 days
Philadelphia (PHL)  29 days  Oct-Nov 1874   39 days
Trenton (TTN)       38 days  Apr-May 1903   39 days
Wilmington (ILG)    34 days  Jan-Feb 1909   39 days

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Gorse
NEAR TERM...MPS/po
SHORT TERM...Gorse
LONG TERM...Gorse
AVIATION...Gorse/MPS/po
MARINE...Gorse/MPS
FIRE WEATHER...
CLIMATE...