Coastal Flood Warning 5, NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
129 PM EDT Sun Mar 24 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure to the north will extend into the Mid-Atlantic region.
Meanwhile, an area of low pressure strengthens well offshore of the
East Coast. An approaching front looks to arrive from the west around
midweek with the potential for a coastal low to develop along it and
track northward along the coast by Thursday into Friday. High pressure
may return late Friday before a disturbance arrives for next weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Strong low pressure near the Gulf of St. Lawrence and high pressure
south of Hudsons Bay remain the main synoptic players with the
near term part of the forecast. While the strongest winds are
over, it will still remain gusty and chilly today with north winds
10 to 20 gusting up to 25 mph into the early afternoon before subsiding
a bit. The other story will be the colder temperatures. Readings
will remain below normal as we tap the cold and dry Canadian airmass
residing underneath the high . High temperatures will be in
upper 40s to around 50 for most under mainly sunny skies.

For tonight, high pressure will be centered north of the area
over southern Quebec into New England. Meanwhile, an area of low
pressure spawned from our storm earlier this weekend will be
sitting and spinning well out over the Atlantic as it becomes a
closed low aloft cut off from the main flow. The tendency in
fact will be for it to drift westward slightly closer to the
region. It won't bring us any more precipitation but it will
result in winds increasing some once again out of the northeast.
Generally expect northeast winds of 10 to 15 gusting upwards of
20 to 25 mph along the coast by Monday morning. This, however,
will keep temperatures from bottoming out so we expect lows
mainly in the upper 20s to low 30s except a bit warmer near the
coast due to the onshore flow.

For Monday, not much change expected as winds will remain a bit
blustery out of the northeast, especially near the coast, while
another mainly sunny day is expected. Generally expect highs in the
low to mid 50s except a bit cooler near the coast and over the
southern Poconos.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
The high to our north begins to retreat Monday night into Tuesday
before a weakening cold front begins to approach the area from the
west Tuesday night. Meanwhile there will also be some moisture
spinning westward into the area from the stalled low out over the
Atlantic. The upshot of this is that skies look to become mainly
cloudy by Tuesday though it should stay dry through the daylight
hours. Expect highs for Tuesday once again mainly in the low to mid
50s except a bit cooler near the coast and over the southern
Poconos, similar to Monday. Some rain showers look to be possible
across the area beginning Tuesday night though any precipitation
should be pretty light. The best chances for precip will be over NE
PA into northern NJ. Expect lows Tuesday night mostly in the low to
mid 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Conditions look to potentially become more unsettled by Wednesday
into Thursday. The weakening cold front discussed in the short term
section looks to move slowly eastward through the area into
Wednesday with the potential for a coastal low to develop along it
and move northward near or off the coast by Thursday. As a result of
this set up, some showers are likely with the front for Wednesday,
especially over eastern PA into northern NJ. The southerly winds
ahead of the front will also bring warmer temperatures for Wednesday
with highs generally ranging from around 55 up to 60, except cooler
over the southern Poconos. By Wednesday night into Thursday,
the best chances for rain will shift towards the coast due to
the coastal low where we currently have POPs in the 60 to 70
percent range.

We should see a drying trend through Friday as the coastal low
departs. Then by Saturday a warm front could bring a few showers
returning to the area. Confidence is low on this though with
POPs only in the 15 to 20 percent range at this time.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas...

.Tonight... VFR with clear skies expected. Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. High
confid.

.Monday... VFR with clear skies. Northeast to East winds increasing to 10 to 15
knots with some gusts around 20 knots. High confid.

Outlook...

Tuesday-Tuesday night...Sub VFR conditions are possible with a
chance of showers. Northeast to east winds 5-10 knots, with
gusts 15- 20 knots possible, especially Tuesday. Low confidence.

Wednesday-Wednesday night...Sub VFR conditions are possible with a
chance of showers. Winds shift to southeast then south during the
day Wednesday, then shift to west and  northwest during the night.
Wind speeds mainly 5-10 knots. Low confidence.

Thursday...Sub VFR conditions are possible with a chance of
rain, especially at ACY and MIV. NNW winds 10-15 knots with
gusts 15-20 knots. Low confidence.

&&

.MARINE...
Took the SCA flag for northern Delaware Bay down. The southern
part of the bay has a SCA in effect thru 6 PM. It'll likely be
extended in time with seas and gusts from the nearby system
affecting the mouth of the bay. Fair weather.

We'll take the Gale for the ocean waters down at 2PM and replace
it with s SCA flag. This SCA will go at least until daybreak
Tuesday. Fair weather thru Monday.

Outlook...

Monday through Tuesday night...An extended period of Small
Craft Advisory conditions looks to continue.

Wednesday-Wednesday night...While winds could drop below advisory
levels, seas may remain above Small Craft Advisory levels.

Thursday...Winds and waves may both briefly drop below advisory
levels, before increasing again Thursday night.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
The coastal low that brought the heavy rain Saturday has
departed to the north and east but a second low has developed
along its cold front and is located off the southeast coast.
This low will strengthen while moving north and then lingering
out over the Atlantic. This will result in an extended duration
of long period swells and rough surf impacting the Atlantic
coast. Surge values of 2-3 feet are currently forecast by
Monday. This will result in widespread minor coastal flooding
with potential for fairly widespread moderate flooding along the
oceanfront and Delaware side of the Delaware Bay. Thus, we have
issued Coastal Flood Watches starting early Monday, but right
now the highest tide appears to be Monday evening's. Some
guidance has moderate flooding lingering several cycles, but for
now have cut off the watch at 2 PM Tuesday.

Coastal flooding is not anticipated along the eastern shore of
Maryland. However, strong northerly winds will result in tidal
anomalies near 1 to 1.5 feet below normal. Water levels are
forecast to reach their lowest point at the midday low tide
today around 1 to 1.5 feet below MLLW. Mariners should use
caution navigating during low water conditions to avoid running
aground.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...Coastal Flood Watch from Monday morning through Tuesday
     afternoon for NJZ020-022>027.
     Coastal Flood Watch from Monday evening through late Monday
     night for NJZ012>014.
DE...Coastal Flood Watch from Monday morning through Tuesday
     afternoon for DEZ002>004.
MD...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ431.
     Gale Warning until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ450>453.
     Gale Warning until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ454-455.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Fitzsimmons/PO
NEAR TERM...Fitzsimmons/PO
SHORT TERM...Fitzsimmons
LONG TERM...Fitzsimmons
AVIATION...OHara
MARINE...Fitzsimmons/PO
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

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