Tornado Warning 55, NWS Paducah, KY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
648 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A dangerous severe weather outbreak will continue through
  late tonight. All modes of severe weather remain possible,
  including the possibility of strong tornadoes, very large
  hail, and destructive straight-line winds.

- Threat for flash flooding will ramp up tonight through early
  Thursday morning as intense storms train over the same
  locations. The Flood Watch has been expanded to include parts
  of southwest IN, southern IL, and southeast MO, in addition to
  west KY.

- Much more tranquil weather is forecast Thursday through early
  next week, with the next chance of showers and isolated storms
  arriving Monday into Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 304 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024

This afternoon and tonight...A dangerous severe weather setup
will persist across much of the forecast area through late
tonight. Currently, scattered to numerous supercells are
developing in the open warm sector across west KY and southern
IL. Expect the warm sector supercellular convection to continue
with an associated large hail, damaging wind, and tornado risk
through late this afternoon.

Further northwest, an intense bow echo is approaching southwest
IL from the south STL metro, with a history of producing very
large hail, straight line wind damage, and attempts at
tornadogenesis. This activity will impact the Route 13 to I-64
corridors through this afternoon through early tonight.

A final and perhaps more widespread straight-line wind risk will
develop ahead of the surface cold front over southwest MO this
afternoon and race into southwest MO, southern IL, southwest IN,
and west KY through 00-06z or so. These storms will likely have
the greatest chance of producing widespread straight-line wind
damage, as the storms will take advantage of an intensifying LLJ
of 30-50 kts.

In addition to the severe risk, the concern for flash flooding
will ramp up tonight as multiple round of intense training
convection will possible. Latest CAMs shows corridors of 2-4" of
QPF through 12z Thursday, with locally higher amounts possible
over the southern KY Pennyrile. For these reasons, opted to
expand the Flood Watch to include much of southeast MO, southern
IL, and southwest IN, in addition to existing Flood Watch in
west KY.

One area that may miss out on the severe storms is the area
north of I-64. The warm front has stalled just south of this
area, and is unlikely to progress further north due to ongoing
rounds of convection. Will need to monitor trends over the next
few hours.

Thursday through Tuesday...An extended period of quiet weather
can be expected Thursday through Sunday as high pressure builds
over the region. Temperatures look to remain near to slightly
above normal, with highs in the 70s to lower 80s and overnight
low temperatures in the 50s.

Our next chance of precipitation will arrive Monday into
Tuesday next week as a surface low tracks over the region. The
path of the surface low will likely preclude organized
convection as it stands, though there will be a slight chance of
thunderstorms. Temperatures will remain near to slightly above
normal with high temperatures in the 70s to lower 80s and
overnight lows in the 50s and 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 647 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024

Another round of thunderstorms with damaging wind potential is
expected to move quickly eastward through the region this
evening...and into the overnight hours in the east. An area of
MVFR ceilings will come in a few hours behind the precipitation
and then scatter/lift to VFR by midday. Northwest winds will
gust 20-25kts at times in the afternoon.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...Flood Watch through Thursday morning for ILZ080>094.
MO...Flood Watch through Thursday morning for MOZ076-086-087-100-
     110>112-114.
IN...Flood Watch through Thursday morning for INZ085>088.
KY...Flood Watch through Thursday morning for KYZ001>022.

&&

DISCUSSION...DWS
AVIATION...DRS

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Paducah KY
311 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-092015-
Jefferson-Wayne IL-Edwards-Wabash-Perry IL-Franklin-Hamilton-
White-Jackson-Williamson-Saline-Gallatin-Union-Johnson-Pope-
Hardin-Alexander-Pulaski-Massac-Gibson-Pike-Posey-Vanderburgh-
Warrick-Spencer-Fulton-Hickman-Carlisle-Ballard-McCracken-Graves-
Livingston-Marshall-Calloway-Crittenden-Lyon-Trigg-Caldwell-
Union KY-Webster-Hopkins-Christian-Henderson-Daviess-McLean-
Muhlenberg-Todd-Perry MO-Bollinger-Cape Girardeau-Wayne MO-Carter-
Ripley-Butler-Stoddard-Scott-Mississippi-New Madrid-
311 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024 /411 PM EDT Wed May 8 2024/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southern
Illinois, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and southeast
Missouri.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

A Tornado Watch is in effect until early this evening for parts
of southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, and western Kentucky,
and southwest Indiana. Refer to the Tornado Watch for details.

A Flood Watch is in effect until 7 AM CDT Thursday for parts
of southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, and western Kentucky,
and southwest Indiana.. Refer to the Flood Watch for details.

An outbreak of severe thunderstorms will continue for much of the
region this afternoon and evening. Tornadoes, some of which could
be strong, destructive straight line winds, and very large hail
are all possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is requested through late tonight. Spotters
should relay storm reports to NWS Paducah through the spotter
hotline, spotter text line, or via social media.

DWS

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