Tornado Warning 29, NWS Paducah, KY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1235 PM CDT Tue Apr 2 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Additional storm development remains possible through the
  afternoon, mainly east of the Mississippi River and in far
  southeast SEMO, as the cold front passes. Damaging winds,
  hail, and a few spin-up tornadoes are possible.

- Wind gusts of 30-40 mph are possible today and Wednesday,
  even outside of thunderstorm activity.

- Temperatures will be about 10 degrees below normal by the
  middle of the week in the 50s/30s. Frost and possibly freeze
  headlines are possible, with the best chance Friday night.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Tue Apr 2 2024

Updated the aviation section for the 18Z TAF issuance.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 342 AM CDT Tue Apr 2 2024

A surface low near or just north of St. Louis MO this morning is
expected to lift north-northeastward this morning as it reaches
southern Lake Michigan this afternoon. The low is expected to
rapidly deepen as a deep upper-level low drops south from the
northern Plains. As the low intensifies, a cold front will pass
through the CWA from west to east, reaching the Mississippi River by
or around 17Z. Hi-Res guidance suggest additional development will
be possible by early afternoon across portions of western KY,
southern IL into southwest IN. It does look like there may be enough
of a gap between this mornings convection and the afternoon frontal
passage to bring a second round of strong to severe storms.
Dewpoints ahead of the cold front are expected to remain in the mid
60s, which is plenty moist for severe weather. Around 1500 J/kg of
instability is forecast ahead of the front with wind shear values
around 40 to 50 kts! This combination, especially with any breaks in
the cloud cover, will lead to an increased risk for organized severe
weather from western KY to southern IL and points east. All modes of
severe weather are possible with shear vectors oriented orthogonal
to the cold front. 0-3 km shear vectors are also around 30-40 kts
with a good portion of that perpendicular to the line of storms
again leading to bowing along the line and spin-ups. Helicity is is
progged to be around 200-300 m2/s2, indicating a good possibility of
rotating updrafts/supercells! All this has led to SPC issuing an
enhanced risk of severe weather for western KY into southwest IN,
where the the aforementioned ingredients overlap. Very heavy
downpours will be possible with at least an isolated threat of flash
flooding.

Outside of thunderstorms, winds are expected to remain fairly gusty
out of the south this morning before shifting to the west then
northwest this afternoon and tonight. Gusts as high as 25 to 30 mph
will be possible today before possibly gusting as high as 40 mph on
Wednesday on cold air advection.

The broad upper-level low will be centered over Lake Michigan
Wednesday as vort lobes rotate through the CWA. The combination of
increased moisture, forcing and weak instability will result in
another round of showers and some thunderstorms by Wednesday
afternoon. This will be a much cooler system with high temperatures
only in the 40s and low 50s! Again, wind gusts throughout the day
could be as high as 40 mph, even outside of any thunderstorm
activity. The troughing pattern will remain in place across the area
through Thursday night, keeping much cooler temperatures in place
along with a few showers and increased cloud cover. It may be cold
enough that a few wet snow flakes may mix in over southwest IN late
Wednesday night into early Thursday morning. No real impacts
expected from that. If there is any clearing, there could be some
frost or possibly a freeze Thursday night and especially Friday
night.

Brief ridging will slide through the area Friday night into through
Saturday night bringing a break in the cloud cover and also in the
precipitation chances. Temperatures will only warm to the upper 50s
and low 60s.

Looking toward the Sunday/Monday time period the next low is
expected to shift across the central Plains as a frontal boundary
shifts through the CWA from west to east. The frontal passage looks
to be during the day Sunday into Sunday evening, leading to the next
chance for rain across the CWA. There are significant model
differences in exactly where the low treks after Sunday night, so
there continues to be some question as to how much cloud cover
lingers for the eclipse on Monday. The latest EC would suggest
clearing across a good portion of the CWA; however, the GFS is
farther south and more progressive with the low...bringing more
cloud cover. The next few model runs will help to get a better
handle on the weather for early next week!

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Tue Apr 2 2024

Thunderstorms are beginning to develop along the cold front, and
are expected to continue to fill in during the early afternoon.
Strong to severe storms are possible through the afternoon
hours as the line slowly advances southeastward. Breezy winds
continue out of the S/SW, shifting to westerly following the
front, with gusts up to 30 kts today. Vsby drops are likely with
thunderstorms, while cigs remain mainly MVFR today and tonight
with partial clearing/lifting in the south. Wrap-around light
showers move in late in the TAF period tomorrow with a
resurgence in MVFR cigs.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

UPDATE...ATL
DISCUSSION...
AVIATION...ATL

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Paducah KY
432 AM CDT Tue Apr 2 2024

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-030945-
Jefferson-Wayne IL-Edwards-Wabash-Perry IL-Franklin-Hamilton-
White-Jackson-Williamson-Saline-Gallatin-Union-Johnson-Pope-
Hardin-Alexander-Pulaski-Massac-Gibson-Pike-Posey-Vanderburgh-
Warrick-Spencer-Fulton-Hickman-Carlisle-Ballard-McCracken-Graves-
Livingston-Marshall-Calloway-Crittenden-Lyon-Trigg-Caldwell-
Union KY-Webster-Hopkins-Christian-Henderson-Daviess-McLean-
Muhlenberg-Todd-Perry MO-Bollinger-Cape Girardeau-Wayne MO-Carter-
Ripley-Butler-Stoddard-Scott-Mississippi-New Madrid-
432 AM CDT Tue Apr 2 2024 /532 AM EDT Tue Apr 2 2024/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southern
Illinois, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and southeast
Missouri.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Severe weather is occurring this morning with all modes possible,
including damaging winds, tornadoes, and large hail.

Another round of severe weather may also develop later in the
morning through early afternoon ahead of an approaching cold
front. The greatest risk for additional severe weather will be in
southwest Indiana and western Kentucky. Again, all modes of severe
weather will be possible with the second round.

Outside of thunderstorms, strong wind gusts to 30 to 40 mph are
possible today.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

Isolated thunderstorms are possible Wednesday afternoon; however,
severe weather is not expected. Outside of thunderstorms, strong
wind gusts to 40 mph are possible Wednesday.

Much colder air arrives for the mid to late week, which will
bring the potential for frost and freezing temperatures. Thursday
night offers the best chance of this occurrence.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Skywarn spotters are encouraged to report any large hail or wind
damage this morning and again this afternoon.

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1249 PM CDT Tue Apr 2 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1240 PM     Hail             Carterville             37.76N 89.08W
04/02/2024  E1.00 Inch       Williamson         IL   Broadcast Media

            Hail up to quarter size falling at WSIL-TV
            in Carterville.

&&

DWS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1259 PM CDT Tue Apr 2 2024

ILZ076-077-082-083-086-INZ085-021845-
White IL-Saline IL-Edwards IL-Hamilton IL-Wayne IL-Posey IN-
1259 PM CDT Tue Apr 2 2024

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT WHITE...SOUTHEASTERN WAYNE...
SOUTHWESTERN EDWARDS...NORTHWESTERN SALINE...SOUTHERN HAMILTON AND
NORTHWESTERN POSEY COUNTIES THROUGH 145 PM CDT...

At 1258 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Thompsonville, or 13 miles east of West Frankfort, moving northeast
at 75 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Carmi, Mcleansboro, Norris City, Galatia, New Harmony, Crossville,
Enfield, Broughton, Springerton, Burnt Prairie, and Phillipstown.

This includes Interstate 64 in Illinois between Mile Markers 115 and
129.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 600 PM CDT for south central,
southern and southeastern Illinois...and southwestern Indiana.

&&

LAT...LON 3813 8792 3779 8871 3800 8871 3836 8811
TIME...MOT...LOC 1758Z 236DEG 66KT 3790 8868

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

DRS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Paducah KY
131 PM CDT Tue Apr 2 2024

ILZ083-086-087-INZ085-KYZ014-021900-
White IL-Saline IL-Gallatin IL-Posey IN-Union KY-
131 PM CDT Tue Apr 2 2024

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN WHITE...EASTERN
SALINE...GALLATIN...SOUTHWESTERN POSEY AND NORTH CENTRAL UNION
COUNTIES THROUGH 200 PM CDT...

At 130 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Harrisburg, moving northeast at 75 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Harrisburg, Eldorado, Shawneetown, Ridgway, Equality, New Haven,
Omaha, Maunie, Junction, and Muddy.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 600 PM CDT for southern and
southeastern Illinois...southwestern Indiana...and northwestern
Kentucky.

&&

LAT...LON 3760 8856 3776 8862 3806 8801 3781 8791
TIME...MOT...LOC 1830Z 238DEG 65KT 3773 8847

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

DRS

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Paducah KY
132 PM CDT Tue Apr 2 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0131 PM     Hail             Harrisburg              37.74N 88.55W
04/02/2024  M0.88 Inch       Saline             IL   Law Enforcement

&&

DWS

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Paducah KY
134 PM CDT Tue Apr 2 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0133 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     Harrisburg              37.74N 88.55W
04/02/2024  M55 MPH          Saline             IL   Law Enforcement

&&

DWS

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