Tornado Warning 123, NWS Paducah, KY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
127 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- The best potential for strong to severe storms is 4-9 PM.
  Storm chances will linger into the night and may continue the
  strong-severe storm threat, should it materialize.

- Heat index values between 100-105 degrees are possible again
  Friday across portions of southeast Missouri, far southern
  Illinois, and far western Kentucky.

- Storm chances linger thru week's end, but cooler and drier,
  less humid air is forecast to be incoming next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 122 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024

The 12Z modeling suggests the 21z-03z time frame as still the
opportune time of development owing to peak instability, but the
CAM's at least do suggest perhaps a slightly slower onset time
of development, maybe a little further north and west with it
too. This might push it back to 22-24z... something to watch
closely. A couple of the CAM's suggest it will come later, and
thus perhaps, carry less of a severe risk. Pops do spike
overnight as the wave makes its way across central IL. All the
severe weather parameters are basically unchanged and so
damaging winds will continue to be the primary severe weather
potential hazard, should one occur, with heavy rain/localized
flooding also a highlight hazard.

Pops will linger thru the end of the week as the primary long
wave trof driving all of the storm activity makes its way across
the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. This may contain a marginal
risk of a strong-svr storm during peak heating Friday but the
best threat for that is today-tonight.

Heat/humidity may threaten Advisory levels near 105 again tmrw
but continued clouds/pcpn chances preclude us from a more
widespread headline issuance. Similarly the FFG is so high that
we'll take a short fuse vs Watch headline approach to heavy
rain/flooding potential as well.

Eventually some slightly cooler/drier air works in for next
week, and we see some 50s dew points return to the forecast by
the back end of the week...that'll be an incredible 2nd bout of
50s dew points in August.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 122 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024

Restricted bases and vsbys are possible with thunderstorm
chances heightening late this afternoon into tonight. Periods of
Visual Flight Rules will temporarily restrict to at least
Marginal Visual Flight Rules if/where storms occur. Tmrw looks
like a near repeat of today.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1155 AM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-161000-
Jefferson-Wayne IL-Edwards-Wabash-Perry IL-Franklin-Hamilton-
White-Jackson-Williamson-Saline-Gallatin-Union-Johnson-Pope-
Hardin-Alexander-Pulaski-Massac-Gibson-Pike-Posey-Vanderburgh-
Warrick-Spencer-Fulton-Hickman-Carlisle-Ballard-McCracken-Graves-
Livingston-Marshall-Calloway-Crittenden-Lyon-Trigg-Caldwell-
Union KY-Webster-Hopkins-Christian-Henderson-Daviess-McLean-
Muhlenberg-Todd-Perry MO-Bollinger-Cape Girardeau-Wayne MO-Carter-
Ripley-Butler-Stoddard-Scott-Mississippi-New Madrid-
1155 AM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024 /1255 PM EDT Thu Aug 15 2024/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southern
Illinois, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and southeast
Missouri.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Strong to potentially severe storms this afternoon into tonight
will have damaging winds as the primary severe hazard should one
occur, while heavy rainfall may cause some localized flooding.

Heat indices of 100 to 105 degrees will be possible mainly across
southeast Missouri but also adjacent locales in far western
Kentucky and southwest Illinois.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

Additional thunderstorm chances are forecast Friday into Saturday.
An isolated stronger storm cannot be ruled out.

Heat index values from 100 to 105 degrees will be possible again
Friday afternoon across southeast Missouri and adjacent parts of
southern Illinois and western Kentucky.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters should stay abreast of the latest forecasts and updates
in case their activation is requested.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Paducah KY
351 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024

MOZ076-152115-
Perry MO-
351 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTH CENTRAL PERRY COUNTY
THROUGH 415 PM CDT...

At 350 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm just
southeast of St. Mary, or south of Chester, moving east at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Chester, St. Mary, and Lithium.

This includes Interstate 55 between Mile Markers 135 and 136.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3788 8980 3786 8980 3785 8979 3785 8974
      3782 8971 3780 8967 3777 8966 3775 8967
      3777 8995 3787 8995 3787 8990 3791 8984
TIME...MOT...LOC 2050Z 260DEG 13KT 3782 8985

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

RJP