Severe Thunderstorm Warning 21, NWS Paducah, KY

720 
WWUS53 KPAH 150119
SVSPAH

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Paducah KY
819 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

MOC143-207-150129-
/O.CAN.KPAH.SV.W.0021.000000T0000Z-240315T0145Z/
New Madrid MO-Stoddard MO-
819 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHERN NEW MADRID AND
SOUTHEASTERN STODDARD COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until midnight CDT for southern
Illinois...western Kentucky...and southeastern Missouri.

&&

LAT...LON 3667 8936 3670 8937 3670 8939 3680 8947
      3690 8950 3700 8926 3707 8931 3710 8925
      3723 8927 3733 8922 3733 8924 3745 8906
      3759 8906 3760 8871 3702 8885 3665 8915
      3664 8919 3658 8921 3657 8927
TIME...MOT...LOC 0119Z 269DEG 45KT 3748 8903 3703 8910 3668 8941 

$$

ILC003-087-127-153-181-KYC007-039-105-145-MOC133-150145-
/O.CON.KPAH.SV.W.0021.000000T0000Z-240315T0145Z/
Union IL-Pulaski IL-Massac IL-Johnson IL-Alexander IL-Carlisle KY-
Hickman KY-Ballard KY-McCracken KY-Mississippi MO-
819 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 845 PM CDT
FOR SOUTHEASTERN UNION...PULASKI...NORTHWESTERN MASSAC...JOHNSON...
EASTERN ALEXANDER...WESTERN CARLISLE...NORTHWESTERN HICKMAN...
BALLARD...NORTHWESTERN MCCRACKEN AND MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES...

At 819 PM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from near Goreville to near Barlow to near Farrenburg,
moving east at 50 mph.

HAZARD...70 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect considerable tree damage. Damage is likely to mobile 
         homes, roofs, and outbuildings.

Locations impacted include...
Charleston, East Prairie, Cairo, Vienna, La Center, Bardwell,
Wickliffe, Towosahgy State Historic Site, Big Oak Tree State Park,
Goreville, Bertrand, Mounds, Dongola, Barlow, Tamms, Mound City,
Karnak, Wyatt, Anniston, and Dorena.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 24 in Illinois between Mile Markers 2 and 23.
 Interstate 57 in Illinois between Mile Markers 1 and 25, and between
Mile Markers 38 and 42.
 Interstate 57 in Missouri between Mile Markers 3 and 21.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until midnight CDT for southern
Illinois...western Kentucky...and southeastern Missouri.

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3667 8936 3670 8937 3670 8939 3680 8947
      3690 8950 3700 8926 3707 8931 3710 8925
      3723 8927 3733 8922 3733 8924 3745 8906
      3759 8906 3760 8871 3702 8885 3665 8915
      3664 8919 3658 8921 3657 8927
TIME...MOT...LOC 0119Z 269DEG 45KT 3748 8903 3703 8910 3668 8941 

THUNDERSTORM DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE
HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...<.75 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...70 MPH

$$

CN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
402 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Another warm day will give way to unsettled weather as a round
  of thunderstorms are forecasted late today into tonight.
  Conditions will be favorable for some storms to turn severe
  with large hail, damaging winds, and isolated tornadoes. 4PM
  to 1AM is when the risk will be the greatest. Localized flash
  flooding is also possible with heavy downpours.

- Conditions will be breezy today with southerly winds. Winds
  gusts between 25 to 35 mph are possible through the afternoon.

- Dry weather returns for the weekend before another cold front
  arrives Sunday night that will cause lows to fall back below
  freezing through Monday night. Temperatures quickly rebound by
  the middle of the week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 352 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

Updated Aviation discussion for 00Z TAF Issuance.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 202 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

Large scale ascent is increasing over MO/AR/OK as evidenced by
the large convective clusters forming there. More subtle
towering cumulus is evident along the I-44 corridor in
Missouri. 18z SGF sounding has about 2200 J/kg of MLCAPE
starting to approach the convective temperature even with a
residual inversion. ACARS soundings from flights in the region
show that cap is slowly eroding overhead as well, probably
collocated with the clouds clearing in the northwest on
satellite as that cumuloustratus was presumably trapped just
under the inversion. That cloud layer did limit our heating
today, but we will be pulling a south and southwest wind out of
west Tennessee where it is 81 degrees with mid 60s dewpoints.
Deep layer shear is quite strong, at 50-55 kts. Lower layer
shear is also relatively strong although not quite as top-end at
30kts in the 0-1km layer with SRH calculated around 200 m2/s2
on KPAHs VWP. Significant Tornado Parameter is about 1 to 2 to
our west and will probably be in that range for much of the
afternoon once warmer air moves in.

Long story short we will be watching the TCU in Missouri to
develop into more discrete cells. CAMs/WoFs really want to
develop a few longer tracked discrete cells from this activity
into our northwestern counties by 3-5 pm. If that were to happen
it would obviously carry an all-hazards threat of
tornado/wind/hail. The instability over southern MO and northern
Arkansas would also potentially allow for some development
ahead of the main MCS complex that could track into the area.
The main MCS would then track this direction by this evening.
That system would carry a continued severe weather risk mainly
in the form of wind and hail but QLCS tornado can't be ruled out
given the available instability and shear. Wet bulb zero heights
are also quite low at 8000-9000 ft so hail will be possible with
any deep convection. The heaviest rain signal is to our south
but will need to keep at least one eye peeled to flood potential
although ground conditions are pretty dry.

Cold front works through by the morning leaving a cooler and
cloudy day. The only other real item of concern in the forecast
is a strong cold front on Sunday that will leave behind some
sub-freezing low temperatures on Sunday night and Monday night
before southwesterly flow builds back in and moderates
temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 352 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

MVFR-low VFR bases will lower/deteriorate this evening/overnight
as a cold front's approach initiates a convective line of storms
with its passage. Further restrictions to IFR CIGS/VSBYS is
anticipated with the thunderstorms. After the front's passage,
winds will shift to the west, then to the north, as bases
deteriote while some VCTS/VCSH lingers awhile. Time/height cross
sections suggest restricted CIGS will hold for the bulk of the
forecast.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Paducah KY
532 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-151000-
Jefferson-Wayne IL-Edwards-Wabash-Perry IL-Franklin-Hamilton-
White-Jackson-Williamson-Saline-Gallatin-Union-Johnson-Pope-
Hardin-Alexander-Pulaski-Massac-Gibson-Pike-Posey-Vanderburgh-
Warrick-Spencer-Fulton-Hickman-Carlisle-Ballard-McCracken-Graves-
Livingston-Marshall-Calloway-Crittenden-Lyon-Trigg-Caldwell-
Union KY-Webster-Hopkins-Christian-Henderson-Daviess-McLean-
Muhlenberg-Todd-Perry MO-Bollinger-Cape Girardeau-Wayne MO-Carter-
Ripley-Butler-Stoddard-Scott-Mississippi-New Madrid-
532 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024 /632 PM EDT Thu Mar 14 2024/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southern
Illinois, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and southeast
Missouri.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Active strong to severe storms are approaching the Quad State
region, where a Tornado Watch is in effect. Refer to the Watch
and any subsequent Warnings and statements for details.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is requested.

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Paducah KY
739 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0737 PM     Hail             1 SW Mount Vernon       38.30N 88.93W
03/14/2024  M1.00 inch       Jefferson          IL   Public

&&

bm

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Paducah KY
740 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0739 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     1 SW Mount Vernon       38.30N 88.93W
03/14/2024  M60 MPH          Jefferson          IL   Public

&&

bm

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Paducah KY
746 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0743 PM     Hail             1 WSW Mount Vernon      38.31N 88.93W
03/14/2024  E0.50 inch       Jefferson          IL   Public

            Report from mPING: Half-inch (0.50 in.).

&&

bm

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Paducah KY
748 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0746 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     3 SSE Dix               38.40N 88.92W
03/14/2024                   Jefferson          IL   Emergency Mngr

            power outages reported.

&&

bm

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Paducah KY
754 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0751 PM     Hail             3 N Belle Rive          38.27N 88.74W
03/14/2024  E1.00 inch       Jefferson          IL   Public

            Report from mPING: Quarter (1.00 in.).

&&

bm

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Paducah KY
756 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0750 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     3 NW Mount Vernon       38.34N 88.96W
03/14/2024                   Jefferson          IL   Emergency Mngr

            Trees down.

&&

bm