Flash Flood Warning 50, NWS Paducah, KY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
329 AM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- An isolated shower or storm is possible today but most areas
  likely staying dry.

- Above normal temperatures expected this weekend into early
  next week with heat indices around 100 degrees, and possibly
  around 105 degrees Monday and Tuesday.

- Chances of showers and storms return by the middle of next
  week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 328 AM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024

Upper level troughing remains in place early this morning with
WV imagery showing a positively tilted trough axis from the
middle Mississippi Valley northeast into the Great Lakes. WV
imagery also reveals a disturbance directly overhead the Quad
State this morning with additional waves embedded upstream.
Conditions are mostly quiet this morning with temperatures in
the upper 60's to lower 70's. There are a few isolated showers
around and this may continue for the next couple of hours given
the upper level disturbance across the region.

By the afternoon hours, models have the upper disturbance
exiting the area, largely limiting ascent. With that said, there
may still be some weak upper level divergence to work with so a
few isolated showers are still possible across portions of the
area. Temperatures will be warmer today with highs in the lower
90's. Dewpoints in the lower 70's will allow heat indices to
rise into the upper 90's to near 100 degrees.

Upper troughing moves well east of the region on Sunday with
ridging extending across much of the central CONUS. Dry weather
is expected Sunday through much of Tuesday beneath ridging
aloft. The main story will be the warm temperatures as highs
rise into the mid 90's. Continued southerly flow will bring
higher dewpoints into the region increasing heat indices to near
or exceeding 105 degrees. By Tuesday night into Wednesday the
upper levels amplify as a strong trough moves across the Great
Lakes sending a cold front through the region. This will bring
increasing chances of showers and storms to the area Wednesday
and Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1140 PM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024

Fog formation will be a primary flight concern overnight
tonight. A passing 5000-6000 ft swirl of clouds may delay the
onset but conditions appear favorable for at least patchy fog
with IFR visibilities possible and locally dense fog can't be
ruled out. Any fog should mix out fairly quickly after sunrise
with light southwest winds developing by mid to late morning.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...AD
AVIATION...JGG

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Paducah KY
314 AM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-140815-
Jefferson-Wayne IL-Edwards-Wabash-Perry IL-Franklin-Hamilton-
White-Jackson-Williamson-Saline-Gallatin-Union-Johnson-Pope-
Hardin-Alexander-Pulaski-Massac-Gibson-Pike-Posey-Vanderburgh-
Warrick-Spencer-Fulton-Hickman-Carlisle-Ballard-McCracken-Graves-
Livingston-Marshall-Calloway-Crittenden-Lyon-Trigg-Caldwell-
Union KY-Webster-Hopkins-Christian-Henderson-Daviess-McLean-
Muhlenberg-Todd-Perry MO-Bollinger-Cape Girardeau-Wayne MO-Carter-
Ripley-Butler-Stoddard-Scott-Mississippi-New Madrid-
314 AM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024 /414 AM EDT Sat Jul 13 2024/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southern
Illinois, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and southeast
Missouri.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

An isolated shower or storm is possible today. Any storm that can
develop could contain heavy downpours and lightning as the main
threats.

Minor river flooding is forecast to continue at points on the
Mississippi River.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

Minor river flooding is forecast to continue at points on the
Mississippi River.

Triple digit heat indices will be possible throughout the region
Sunday through Tuesday.

Thunderstorms will be possible Wednesday into Thursday. Some of
the storms could become strong to severe.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Paducah KY
414 AM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0409 AM     Rain             1 NNW Murphysboro       37.78N 89.34W
07/13/2024  M2.33 Inch       Jackson            IL   Mesonet

            One hour rainfall at mesonet station MURBO
            Murphysboro IL.

&&

DWS

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Paducah KY
415 AM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0330 AM     Rain             1 SE Murphysboro        37.76N 89.33W
07/13/2024  M2.01 Inch       Jackson            IL   Mesonet

            One hour rainfall at mesonet station MURI2
            0.8 SE Murphysboro.

&&

DWS

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