Flash Flood Warning 47, NWS Paducah, KY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
104 PM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated to scattered showers and storms into this evening.
  Strong to isolated severe storms will be possible, with
  damaging winds and heavy rainfall the main threats.

- Above normal temperatures are expected this weekend and early
  next week with heat indices around 100 degrees, and possibly
  around 105 degrees Monday and Tuesday.

- Chances of showers and storms return by the middle of next
  week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 103 PM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024

Visible satellite and water vapor imagery shows an MCV sliding
across southern MO toward the CWA this afternoon. Along and ahead of
that feature, isolated to scattered showers and storms have
developed. Very little shear is around for the storms to work with;
however, there is a decent amount of instability around 2000-3000
J/kg of SBCAPE. That may lead to a brief pulse-type severe storm or
two, but it is not expected to be widespread. The main threat would
be damaging winds as the storms collapse. In fact, the area is still
under a marginal risk of severe through this evening. The added
moisture from any rainfall, along with light winds overnight, will
lead to at least patchy fog across the area. Some locally dense fog
is not out of the question, again, where the rain occurs this
afternoon.

As weak troughing lingers aloft across the area for Saturday, expect
some scattered afternoon cloud cover along with a an isolated shower
or storm in the afternoon. Coverage will likely be reduced from what
it was this afternoon.

The focus then turns to broad upper-level ridging across most of the
central CONUS. This will lead to a steady increase in temperatures
through the middle of the work week. This will begin on Sunday and
then linger through at least Tuesday/Wednesday. Southerly flow will
steadily increase through that time period as well, pushing relative
humidity values up along with heat index values. High temperatures
will push into the mid to upper 90s with heat index values reaching
and exceeding 105 degree Sunday through at least Tuesday. This will
easily be in the Heat Advisory headline criteria. A cold front will
arrive for Wednesday into Thursday increasing the chances for
showers and storms while allowing for a bit cooler weather for
Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1217 PM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024

Isolated thunderstorms will impact the TAF sites this afternoon
before diminishing this evening. The storms may briefly lead to
reduced visibility and erratic winds. Otherwise, some patchy fog
may develop overnight, especially where any rain falls today.
Improving conditions with light winds expected for Saturday.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Paducah KY
120 PM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-131830-
Jefferson-Wayne IL-Edwards-Wabash-Perry IL-Franklin-Hamilton-
White-Jackson-Williamson-Saline-Gallatin-Union-Johnson-Pope-
Hardin-Alexander-Pulaski-Massac-Gibson-Pike-Posey-Vanderburgh-
Warrick-Spencer-Fulton-Hickman-Carlisle-Ballard-McCracken-Graves-
Livingston-Marshall-Calloway-Crittenden-Lyon-Trigg-Caldwell-
Union KY-Webster-Hopkins-Christian-Henderson-Daviess-McLean-
Muhlenberg-Todd-Perry MO-Bollinger-Cape Girardeau-Wayne MO-Carter-
Ripley-Butler-Stoddard-Scott-Mississippi-New Madrid-
120 PM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024 /220 PM EDT Fri Jul 12 2024/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southern
Illinois, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and southeast
Missouri.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Isolated to scattered storms are expected through early this
evening. Brief heavy downpours and lightning will be the main
hazards, although a few damaging wind gusts and localized flooding
cannot be ruled out.

Minor to moderate river flooding is forecast to continue at
points on the Mississippi River.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

Minor to moderate river flooding is forecast to continue at
points on the Mississippi River.

Triple digit heat indices will be possible throughout the region
Sunday through Tuesday.

Thunderstorms will be possible Wednesday into Thursday. Some of
the storms could become strong to severe.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report any severe weather or flooding
to the National Weather Service this afternoon and evening.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Paducah KY
947 AM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024

MOZ107-121530-
Carter MO-
947 AM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN CARTER COUNTY
THROUGH 1030 AM CDT...

At 946 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Garwood, or near Van Buren, moving northeast at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of northeastern Carter
County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3705 9073 3700 9073 3700 9071 3697 9072
      3697 9070 3696 9070 3695 9094 3704 9096
TIME...MOT...LOC 1446Z 245DEG 13KT 3702 9089

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

DRS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1134 AM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024

ILZ080-121715-
Perry IL-
1134 AM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN PERRY COUNTY
THROUGH 1215 PM CDT...

At 1134 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Pinckneyville, moving east at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Pinckneyville and Tamaroa.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3813 8944 3821 8943 3821 8915 3802 8915
TIME...MOT...LOC 1634Z 279DEG 13KT 3817 8935

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

DRS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1145 AM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024

MOZ100-109-121730-
Butler MO-Wayne MO-
1145 AM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN WAYNE AND NORTH
CENTRAL BUTLER COUNTIES THROUGH 1230 PM CDT...

At 1144 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Lake Wappapello State Park, moving east at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Lake Wappapello State Park, Shook, and Wappapello.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3695 9049 3704 9047 3706 9020 3692 9025
      3692 9026 3691 9026 3691 9025 3685 9027
TIME...MOT...LOC 1644Z 279DEG 13KT 3698 9041

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

DRS

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