Flash Flood Warning 14, NWS Paducah, KY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
559 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and thunderstorms continue today; can't rule out a severe
  storm this afternoon.

- Some lingering showers continue tonight into Wednesday, and
  then another system spreads additional showers and storms into
  the region Thursday through Friday.

- Uncertainty exists regarding precip chances this weekend, but
  it is trending drier.

- Temperatures will start off near to slightly below normal the
  next couple of days, then warm above normal this weekend as
  highs reach the mid 80s.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 555 PM CDT TueMay 14 2024

Updated Aviation discussion for 00Z TAF Issuance.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 115 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024

Thunderstorms are growing a little stronger and better organized
over Livingston County and vicinity. A few breaks in the
overcast have allowed for better surface heating and about
800-1000 J/kg of MLCAPE is forming up across the area. Similar
instability is forming ahead of a broken line of showers across
SEMO. With modest deep layer shear but just a little directional
low level shear invof the surface low will have to monitor for
a stray severe storm or two this afternoon. Antecedent soil
conditions will also make at least a few areas primed for flash
flooding if they happen to get storms once again this afternoon.
Mainly a corridor from about Evansville to Cairo, IL that saw
repeated activity through the midday hours Tuesday.

Wednesday looks a little drier although some wraparound showers
and clouds appear possible in the eastern half of the CWA.
Friday a quick moving shortwave moves overhead. GFS/NAM have us
in a little more large scale ascent zone of the upper jet Friday
where the ECMWF is a little flatter with the wave. Rain and
thunderstorms look quite likely. The shear environment will be
more favorable than today, and instability may be slightly
larger. That will be the main ticket to any severe potential
Friday is if we end up with slightly more than currently
advertised MLCAPE a more organized severe threat may result.
Heavy rainfall will be a watch item as well with the
increasingly wet soil conditions and fairly deep column
moisture.

A front moves through behind this system and looks to mostly dry
us out for the weekend. By Saturday highs look to climb back
into the middle 80s. 12z deterministic and ensemble members are
still in very poor agreement on the details, but the broader
moisture return, trough positioning and climatology would
suggest it be monitored for severe weather and heavy rain
potential as well.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 553 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024

Scattered showers/storms remain possible in the vicinity of low
pressure drifting across the terminals. Restricted cigs/vsbys
can be expected with any storm. Activity should diminish with
nightfall, or at least wane. The recent heavy rainfall may allow
for some patchy fog or low cloud to develop overnight where
skies clear or at least bases scatter. Winds will pick up
toward daybreak, transitioning to an IFR cloud base before
daytime heating increases that to MVFR. Scattered showers/storms
are again possible tmrw, but mainly for eastern terminals
(KEVV/KOWB).

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Paducah KY
513 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-151000-
Jefferson-Wayne IL-Edwards-Wabash-Perry IL-Franklin-Hamilton-
White-Jackson-Williamson-Saline-Gallatin-Union-Johnson-Pope-
Hardin-Alexander-Pulaski-Massac-Gibson-Pike-Posey-Vanderburgh-
Warrick-Spencer-Fulton-Hickman-Carlisle-Ballard-McCracken-Graves-
Livingston-Marshall-Calloway-Crittenden-Lyon-Trigg-Caldwell-
Union KY-Webster-Hopkins-Christian-Henderson-Daviess-McLean-
Muhlenberg-Todd-Perry MO-Bollinger-Cape Girardeau-Wayne MO-Carter-
Ripley-Butler-Stoddard-Scott-Mississippi-New Madrid-
513 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024 /613 PM EDT Tue May 14 2024/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southern
Illinois, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and southeast
Missouri.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

The strongest storms early this evening will be capable of
becoming marginally severe, with up to 1 inch hail and gusty
winds. Nearby low pressure is also inducing reports of cold-air
funnel clouds; usually these do not make it all the way to the
ground, but be aware as you may see one. Flooding from repeat or
locally heavy rainfall is also possible. Be sure to heed any Flood
Advisories, Warnings, and Road Closures.

River flooding continues, see the river flood products for
details.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

Thunderstorm chances are in the forecast on Thursday and Friday.
A few strong to severe storms are possible Thursday afternoon and
evening. Another storm system may approach early next week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter are encouraged to relay any significant storm related
reports to the NWS.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Paducah KY
522 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024

INZ087-142245-
Warrick IN-
522 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN WARRICK COUNTY
THROUGH 545 PM CDT...

At 520 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Newburgh, moving northeast at 20 mph. This storm may have a cold air
funnel cloud associated with it, due to nearby low pressure. Cold
air funnels are possible today, but they do not usually touch all
the way to the ground.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Newburgh and Chandler.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3794 8739 3800 8745 3809 8731 3795 8730
TIME...MOT...LOC 2220Z 225DEG 11KT 3797 8737

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

07

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Paducah KY
552 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024

INZ087-088-KYZ018-019-142330-
Warrick IN-Spencer IN-Henderson KY-Daviess KY-
552 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHERN WARRICK...SOUTHWESTERN
SPENCER...NORTHWESTERN DAVIESS AND NORTHEASTERN HENDERSON COUNTIES
THROUGH 630 PM CDT...

At 551 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Stanley, or 8 miles south of Newburgh, moving east at 15 mph. This
storm may have a cold air funnel cloud associated with it, due to
nearby low pressure. Cold air funnels are possible today, but they
do not usually touch all the way to the ground.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Eureka and Stanley.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3781 8741 3792 8742 3794 8717 3780 8717
TIME...MOT...LOC 2251Z 271DEG 13KT 3786 8735

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

DW

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Paducah KY
603 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024

INZ087-088-142345-
Warrick IN-Spencer IN-
603 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTH CENTRAL WARRICK AND WEST
CENTRAL SPENCER COUNTIES THROUGH 645 PM CDT...

At 602 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Newburgh, moving northeast at 15 mph. This storm may have a cold air
funnel cloud associated with it, due to nearby low pressure. Cold
air funnels are possible today, but they do not usually touch all
the way to the ground.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Newburgh.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3792 8736 3794 8738 3795 8737 3808 8718
      3794 8717
TIME...MOT...LOC 2302Z 224DEG 11KT 3793 8731

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

DW

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Paducah KY
612 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024

ILZ090-KYZ007-010-011-150000-
Pope IL-Crittenden KY-Lyon KY-Livingston KY-
612 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN POPE...SOUTHWESTERN
CRITTENDEN...CENTRAL LIVINGSTON AND NORTHWESTERN LYON COUNTIES
THROUGH 700 PM CDT...

At 611 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Burna, or 11 miles north of Calvert City, moving east at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Salem, Burna, Smithland, Dycusburg, and Hamletsburg.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Conditions are favorable for the development of weak, brief funnel
clouds. This type of funnel cloud is harmless, but on rare occasions
they can briefly touch down, producing wind gusts over 50 mph. If a
funnel cloud is spotted move indoors and report your sighting to the
National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3709 8845 3731 8847 3731 8812 3708 8811
TIME...MOT...LOC 2311Z 270DEG 20KT 3718 8841

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

DW

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