Wind Advisory 15, NWS Norman, OK

Alfalfa County, OK, Beckham County, OK, Blaine County, OK, Caddo County, OK, Canadian County, OK, Cleveland County, OK, Comanche County, OK, Cotton County, OK, Custer County, OK, Dewey County, OK, Ellis County, OK, Garfield County, OK, Grady County, OK, Grant County, OK, Greer County, OK, Harmon County, OK, Harper County, OK, Jackson County, OK, Kay County, OK, Kingfisher County, OK, Kiowa County, OK, Logan County, OK, Major County, OK, McClain County, OK, Noble County, OK, Oklahoma County, OK, Payne County, OK, Roger Mills County, OK, Tillman County, OK, Washita County, OK, Woods County, OK, Woodward County, OK, Hardeman County, TX, Wichita County, TX, Wilbarger County, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1245 PM CDT Sun Oct 27 2024

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1227 PM CDT Sun Oct 27 2024

	- Windy conditions on Monday and Tuesday

 	- Fire weather conditions return Monday (near critical) and
      Tuesday (elevated)

	- Severe storms possible Wednesday

    - Rain in the forecast during latter half of this week

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 253 AM CDT Sun Oct 27 2024

Warmer today with highs mainly in the 80s. South central Oklahoma
will see some stratus build in this morning, with most of it
clearing off by noon. Low chance for some brief patchy fog as well
right around dawn. Winds will be generally light and southerly.

As the pressure gradient starts to tighten, winds will actually
increase through the night tonight leading into a very windy Monday.
Lows will generally be in the 60s.

Day

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Monday through Tuesday night)
Issued at 253 AM CDT Sun Oct 27 2024

A strong pressure gradient will lead to near advisory level winds on
Monday. This combined with RH values in the 20s and 30s and ERCs in
the 80th-90th percentile will result in wind-driven elevated to near
critical fire weather conditions, primarily across northern,
western, and portions of central Oklahoma as well as adjacent north
Texas. Monday is forecast to be the hottest day this week with highs
in the mid 80s to low 90s. Some cirrus may help take the edge off
those temperatures.

Tuesday looks slightly windier yet, though higher RH values (as
southerly surface flow continues to bring in moisture) may provide
some mitigating effect on fire danger. The current forecast calls
for elevated RFTIs across mainly our western counties.

Day

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 253 AM CDT Sun Oct 27 2024

Rain chances are expected to return early Wednesday and continue
through the day and into late Wednesday night as a cold front moves
through the area ahead of an upper level trough. Most areas along
and east of I-35 have a medium to high probability (60-80%) of
getting appreciable (greater than 0.25 inches) rain, with south
central Oklahoma showing 50-60% chance getting over an inch. As you
move farther west, rain chances quickly dwindle. Additional rain
chances (40-60%) are expected Friday into the weekend under the
influence of southwest upper level flow and warm air advection.

Cooler temperatures will accompany this front and will continue
through the end of the week. Wednesday shows the most uncertainty
due to frontal timing producing a sharp temperature gradient. By
Thursday and continuing into the weekend we'll see more fall-like
60s and 70s for highs.

Day

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1227 PM CDT Sun Oct 27 2024

All of our terminals should remain under VFR conditions through
the forecast period. High pressure across the Eastern U.S. will
return southerly surface winds across our terminals up to 10 kts.
Surface winds back southeast after 00Z but start veering southerly
by 12Z with increasing wind speeds and gusts up to 25 kts by 15Z.
A strong low-level jet orientated south to north will be
increasing overnight after 06Z which may produce low-level wind
shear of 35-40 kts at level 020 over most of our terminals.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  80  64  87  67 /   0   0   0   0
Hobart OK         83  63  89  65 /   0   0   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  86  65  90  67 /   0   0   0   0
Gage OK           81  60  92  61 /   0   0   0   0
Ponca City OK     79  62  89  68 /   0   0   0   0
Durant OK         82  64  87  66 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Fire Weather Watch from Monday afternoon through Monday evening
     for OKZ004>024-027-033>038-044.

TX...Fire Weather Watch from Monday afternoon through Monday evening
     for TXZ083-085-086.

&&

NEAR TERM...14
SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...68

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Norman OK
305 AM CDT Sun Oct 27 2024

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-280815-
Harper-Woods-Alfalfa-Grant-Kay-Ellis-Woodward-Major-Garfield-
Noble-Roger Mills-Dewey-Custer-Blaine-Kingfisher-Logan-Payne-
Beckham-Washita-Caddo-Canadian-Oklahoma-Lincoln-Grady-McClain-
Cleveland-Pottawatomie-Seminole-Hughes-Harmon-Greer-Kiowa-Jackson-
Tillman-Comanche-Stephens-Garvin-Murray-Pontotoc-Coal-Cotton-
Jefferson-Carter-Johnston-Atoka-Love-Marshall-Bryan-Hardeman-
Foard-Wilbarger-Wichita-Knox-Baylor-Archer-Clay-
305 AM CDT Sun Oct 27 2024

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northern...
western...central...and southern Oklahoma...and western north
Texas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight...

No hazardous weather is expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday...

.Fire weather...
Strong south winds, hot temperatures, and low humidity will create
elevated to near critical fire weather conditions on Monday and
Tuesday afternoons.

.Strong winds...
Strong south winds with gusts over 40 mph are expected both Monday
afternoon and Tuesday afternoons.

.Thunderstorms...
Thunderstorms will be possible across much of the area Wednesday and
Thursday followed by lesser chances on Friday and Saturday.

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