Special Weather Statement, NWS Norman, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1106 PM CDT Thu Aug 1 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 347 PM CDT Thu Aug 1 2024

Heat will remain the primary sensible concern for most, though the
probability of scattered thunderstorms continues to increase for
portions of northern Oklahoma this evening/tonight. While the upper
ridge axis has retrograded some today, a combination of mesoscale
factors: low-level thermal ridge axis expanding across the area,
pre-frontal compressional warming/"torching" and moisture pooling
in vicinity of a weak front has promoted a corridor of
>110-degree heat indices across western-central into northern
Oklahoma. In addition, as surface winds are weak near the front,
wet-bulb globe temperature risk is 'extreme' across much of this
area. Accordingly, an Excessive Heat Warning continues here until
9 PM this evening. Heat indices (and ambient temperatures across
southwest Oklahoma/north Texas) of >105-degrees are expected
elsewhere, where a Heat Advisory also continues through 9 PM.

The probability of scattered thunderstorms continues to increase
(now 30-40%) in vicinity of the surface front this evening. Given
the current location of the front, from ~Arnett-to-Red Rock, the
northern one-third of the forecast area is favored for
thunderstorms through early Friday morning. An environment
characterized by weak (15-25 knots) deep-layer shear should
promote generally disorganized (single/multi-cell) storm modes
this evening. Still, amidst a hot and dry (well-mixed) boundary
layer, a few severe-caliber (60-80 mph) downburst events are
likely with stronger storms through sunset. Any concern for severe
weather should diminish shortly after sunset, though gusty winds
and perhaps a few instances of small hail are possible through
daybreak Friday across northern/north-central Oklahoma.

Friday will represent a transitional day of sensible impact, with a
bifurcation of heat across the area (warmer south). The weak
frontal boundary will continue to slowly drop south, towards the
Red River Valley, through the day. Local compressional warming
will again foster a corridor of locally higher ambient
temperatures (>105-degrees) across the southern one-half of the
forecast area. This necessitates another day with a Heat Advisory
(from 1-8 PM) here. Further north, a "cooler" afternoon (high
temperatures in the upper-90s with lower humidity) is expected.

A corridor of scattered rain showers and thunderstorms may
ultimately continue in vicinity of the front through the
afternoon on Friday across central Oklahoma, though
predictability/probability remains low (20-30%), especially after
the mid-morning hours. Additional, diurnally-driven, scattered
convective chances are also possible near and south of the Red
River Friday evening. Severe weather concern is low on Friday.

Ungar

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 347 PM CDT Thu Aug 1 2024

Heat concern will escalate into next week, with no evident sign
of precipitation beyond early Saturday morning. Warm/seasonable
weather is likely this weekend in the wake of the frontal passage.
While triple-digit heat is likely both days, drier conditions
behind the front will prove key to help avoid widespread
>105-degree heat indices and heat headlines (though small/targeted
coverage cannot be discounted). Ensemble/cluster data show (with
high confidence) a western CONUS upper ridge expanding eastward
early next week. This will foster a return of widespread triple-
digit heat and likely heat headlines.

Outside of a low chance (10-20%) for showers and a storm early
Saturday morning across southwest Oklahoma/north Texas, the extended
period looks to feature mostly dry weather.

Ungar

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1106 PM CDT Thu Aug 1 2024

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected across northern
into central Oklahoma tonight into tomorrow morning. The most
likely terminals to see storms are KPNC, KSWO, KOKC, and KOUN.
Brief reductions in visibility, small hail, and gusty winds are
possible in the most intense storms.

A weak wind shift will slowly move southward tonight into
tomorrow morning. Winds will shift from the south to northeast or
east-northeast behind the boundary. Additional storms may develop
near the boundary tomorrow afternoon, but the probability is too
low to include in the TAFs.

Mahale

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  77  99  71  96 /  30  20   0   0
Hobart OK         76 101  73  99 /   0  20  10   0
Wichita Falls TX  77 105  76 101 /   0  10  10   0
Gage OK           72  97  69  94 /  30  20  10   0
Ponca City OK     74  98  68  96 /  30   0   0   0
Durant OK         77 103  74 100 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 8 PM CDT Friday for OKZ033>048-
     050>052.

TX...Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 8 PM CDT Friday for TXZ083>090.

&&

SHORT TERM...34
LONG TERM....34
AVIATION...10

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Norman OK
945 PM CDT Thu Aug 1 2024

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-030245-
Harper-Woods-Alfalfa-Grant-Kay-Ellis-Woodward-Major-Garfield-
Noble-Roger Mills-Dewey-Custer-Blaine-Kingfisher-Logan-Payne-
Beckham-Washita-Caddo-Canadian-Oklahoma-Lincoln-Grady-McClain-
Cleveland-Pottawatomie-Seminole-Hughes-Harmon-Greer-Kiowa-Jackson-
Tillman-Comanche-Stephens-Garvin-Murray-Pontotoc-Coal-Cotton-
Jefferson-Carter-Johnston-Atoka-Love-Marshall-Bryan-Hardeman-
Foard-Wilbarger-Wichita-Knox-Baylor-Archer-Clay-
945 PM CDT Thu Aug 1 2024

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northern...
western...central...and southern Oklahoma...and western north
Texas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight...

.Thunderstorms...
Scattered thunderstorms are possible tonight across northern into
central Oklahoma, with potential for gusty winds and small hail
with the stronger thunderstorms.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday...

.Heat...
Dangerous heat and heat indices are expected again on Friday
across the southern half of Oklahoma and north Texas. Be sure to
follow heat safety guidelines and limit outdoor time during the
day. A return of widespread dangerous heat is expected by early
next week.

.Thunderstorms...
A few thunderstorms are possible Friday morning across central
Oklahoma. Thunderstorms may redevelop across southern Oklahoma
and north Texas on Friday afternoon and early evening. The most
intense storms may produce gusty winds.

Get graphics and more details at weather.gov/norman...and follow
our weather forecast office on Twitter and Facebook.

Mahale

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Norman OK
1246 AM CDT Fri Aug 2 2024

OKZ015-016-020615-
Dewey OK-Custer OK-
1246 AM CDT Fri Aug 2 2024

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northeastern Custer
and southeastern Dewey Counties through 115 AM CDT...

At 1246 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles east of Putnam, moving east at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Thomas, Oakwood, and Fay.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3596 9890 3594 9864 3568 9863 3578 9895
TIME...MOT...LOC 0546Z 282DEG 12KT 3586 9884

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

..speg.

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>