Severe Thunderstorm Warning 792, NWS Norman, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
556 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 130 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024

Round one is just about done, as storms continue to move across
the far southeastern third of our forecast area. In the past 12
hours, widespread rains have occurred in Oklahoma, with nearly 6
inches of rainfall in Kingfisher County. Unfortunately, our Texas
counties have been shut out so far, but this event isn't over by
any means.

To say the pattern is complicated might be in insult to the word
complicated. First, the MCS continues to push an outflow boundary
from Wichita Falls to Durant (at 18Z). There is an elevated
frontal boundary noted on satellite and observations from El Reno
to Guymon, which will likely be a big player in additional
thunderstorm development. Between these boundaries, there is a
mix of sunshine and cloud cover, but a lot of SW Oklahoma and
western north Texas are under clear skies. In these clear skies,
temperatures are in the 80s and 90s...and the dewpoints are near
or above 70.

Additional thunderstorms are already attempting to develop on the
intersection of the boundary and deferential heating boundary
around Union City to Binger (1825Z). CAMS are on board with these
thunderstorms moving a bit to the south and increasing in
coverage and intensity during the afternoon and evening hours.
Forecast CAPE and shear values will be sufficient for supercell
features in storms that are able to develop, with large hail and
gusty thunderstorm winds being the primary hazards.

Fox

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 130 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024

Rain and thunderstorm chances remain through Monday night and
Tuesday, as Beryl tracks in to the Arklatex. However, the
northern and northwestern sections of our forecast area will be
dry, as the tropical moisture stays south and east.

Afterwards, the atmosphere returns to its normal state, with
scattered clouds during the day and temperatures warming back into
the low-mid 90s...where they should be for this time of year.

Fox

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 456 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024

Showers and thunderstorms will affect central and southwestern
Oklahoma TAF sites this evening. Another complex of storms are
expected to move into western Oklahoma and spread east before and
around sunrise Monday. This complex will slowly move south across
the Red River by late morning. MVFR and VFR conditions are
expected except in some thunderstorms.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  66  81  66  86 /  80  60  20  10
Hobart OK         65  82  63  89 /  70  70  20  10
Wichita Falls TX  69  86  68  89 /  40  50  10  10
Gage OK           63  80  60  86 /  70  60  10   0
Ponca City OK     66  83  65  86 /  90  50  20  10
Durant OK         70  85  67  88 /  30  70  50  30

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flood Watch through Monday morning for OKZ004>031-033>042-
     044>046-050.

TX...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....21
AVIATION...10

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Norman OK
345 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-082045-
Harper-Woods-Alfalfa-Grant-Kay-Ellis-Woodward-Major-Garfield-
Noble-Roger Mills-Dewey-Custer-Blaine-Kingfisher-Logan-Payne-
Beckham-Washita-Caddo-Canadian-Oklahoma-Lincoln-Grady-McClain-
Cleveland-Pottawatomie-Seminole-Hughes-Harmon-Greer-Kiowa-Jackson-
Tillman-Comanche-Stephens-Garvin-Murray-Pontotoc-Coal-Cotton-
Jefferson-Carter-Johnston-Atoka-Love-Marshall-Bryan-Hardeman-
Foard-Wilbarger-Wichita-Knox-Baylor-Archer-Clay-
345 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northern...
western...central...and southern Oklahoma...and western north
Texas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight..

.Thunderstorms...
Additional showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop near
and along a cold front across northern Oklahoma. Modest
instability and strengthening wind fields will allow for a few
supercell thunderstorms with the potential for large hail and
damaging wind gusts. . This activity is expected to develop into a
complex of storms that will move south this evening and overnight
across much of Oklahoma and into north Texas. Damaging wind gusts
of 60 to 80 mph and heavy rainfall will be he main hazards.

.Heavy Rainfall...
Multiple rounds of storms today and tonight will result in areas
of heavy rainfall and possible flooding and flash flooding. A
Flood Watch is in effect for much of Oklahoma this afternoon and
tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday...

.Thunderstorms...
Lingering areas of showers and thunderstorms will occur Monday and
some heavy rainfall will be possible early in the day. Storm
chances continue across parts of the area through Thursday.

.Heavy Rainfall...
Heavy rainfall will continue to be possible Monday morning. A
Flood Watch is in effect for a large portion of the area during
this time.

Get graphics and more details at weather.gov/norman...and follow
our weather forecast office on Twitter and Facebook.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Norman OK
535 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024

OKZ034-035-072300-
Kiowa OK-Greer OK-
535 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northwestern Kiowa
and northeastern Greer Counties through 600 PM CDT...

At 535 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 4
miles northwest of Granite, moving southeast at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor damage to outdoor objects is possible.

Locations impacted include...
Granite, Lone Wolf, Willow, Brinkman, and Altus-Lugert Lake.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3512 9945 3512 9944 3511 9944 3511 9941
      3512 9941 3512 9932 3507 9910 3481 9928
      3500 9956
TIME...MOT...LOC 2235Z 304DEG 15KT 3503 9942

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...<30 MPH

Ware

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