Severe Thunderstorm Warning 749, NWS Norman, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
433 PM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 246 PM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024

As of 9AM this morning, the surface analysis showed a weak
surface low over the TX panhandle with a stationary front
extending across northwest Oklahoma and a reinforcing cold front
from north-central to southwest Kansas. The stationary front has
moved very slowly into northern Oklahoma this afternoon. The 2PM
analysis now places the stationary front from near Arnett to
Medford, and this boundary will be the focal zone for thunderstorm
development later this afternoon and evening. Strong to damaging
wind gusts (60 to 70 mph) with storm downbursts along with some
hail (though a lesser concern) possible. Abundant moisture content
present and well-above average PWAT values will allow for efficient
and heavy rainfall. Depending on how long storms linger over a
particular area, locally-heavy rainfall could pose a flash- flood
risk.

Storm chances continue overnight, especially across northern
Oklahoma, to account for remnant activity exiting the high plains
(though this is looking less likely as the afternoon wears on).

Momentum from the reinforcing cold front, along cold pools resulting
from thunderstorms, should push the stationary boundary towards
central oklahoma very gradually this evening into tonight. This
boundary lingers near, or within reach of the I-40 corridor
tomorrow and thunderstorm redevelopment is possible along this
boundary on Sunday afternoon and evening. Storm activity should be
diurnally- driven, and thus, dissipate by tomorrow evening.
Strong wind gusts, locally heavy rainfall are the main concerns
with any storms that develop on Sunday.

Many areas along/north of I-40 will see a brief reprieve from the
heat tomorrow. High temperatures for far northern Oklahoma could
only rise into the low/mid-80's with upper 80's and low 90's
across central Oklahoma. With low to medium confidence (30-50%) of
heat index values reaching 105 deg F in southern counties, an
advisory was not issued.

Thompson

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Friday)
Issued at 246 PM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024

The ridge remains centered over the southern plains into next
week with well-above average temperatures (both max/min) through
at least Thursday. A northern stream trough reaches the Pacific
northwest on Sunday and advances steadily across southern Canada
and the northern CONUS. The associated cold front potentially
moves into Oklahoma mid-week, but may only bring somewhat lower
temperatures to northwest Oklahoma on Wednesday. Rain/storm
chances return for a portion of NW/N Oklahoma late Tuesday with
with low POPs continuing over northern OK on Wednesday to account
for the stalled front scenario. Unfortunately, the heat will
return on Monday and persist through Thursday with heat advisory
criteria likely being met daily for some areas.

The upper ridge is prog'd to shift over the southeastern CONUS end
of next week with potentially several northern stream shortwaves
pushing a cold front into the area Thursday night or Friday, along
with a return of rain chances. High temperatures on Friday and
potentially next Saturday appear to be about 10 degrees less than
Thursday - even for our southern counties.

Thompson

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 430 PM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024

VFR/MVFR ceilings expected this TAF period. A boundary currently
across parts of northern OK is expected to shift southward tonight
into Sunday although some question in how far south with current
thoughts of it being near I-40 Sunday afternoon. This boundary
will be the focus for storm development this evening and then
again Sunday afternoon. Strong variable wind gusts will be
possible near any of the storms. Additional storms could move
into parts of northern OK early Sunday as well. Winds north of the
boundary will be from the NE with winds south of the boundary
from the S and SE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  76  91  75  98 /  30  30  10  10
Hobart OK         78  97  78 101 /  20  20  10   0
Wichita Falls TX  81  99  79 102 /  10  10   0   0
Gage OK           69  86  73 100 /  50  30  10   0
Ponca City OK     70  82  71  97 /  70  40  10  10
Durant OK         80  97  76  97 /  10  20   0  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ004>006-009>011-
     014>017-021-022-033>037.

     Excessive Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ007-
     008-012-013-018>020-023>032-038>048-050>052.

TX...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ083>085-087-088.

     Excessive Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ086-
     089-090.

&&

SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...25

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Norman OK
245 PM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-301945-
Harper-Woods-Alfalfa-Grant-Kay-Ellis-Woodward-Major-Garfield-
Noble-Roger Mills-Dewey-Custer-Blaine-Kingfisher-Logan-Payne-
Beckham-Washita-Caddo-Canadian-Oklahoma-Lincoln-Grady-McClain-
Cleveland-Pottawatomie-Seminole-Hughes-Harmon-Greer-Kiowa-Jackson-
Tillman-Comanche-Stephens-Garvin-Murray-Pontotoc-Coal-Cotton-
Jefferson-Carter-Johnston-Atoka-Love-Marshall-Bryan-Hardeman-
Foard-Wilbarger-Wichita-Knox-Baylor-Archer-Clay-
245 PM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northern...
western...central...and southern Oklahoma...and western north
Texas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight...

.Heat...
Hot and humid conditions continue this afternoon with heat index
values rising to near 113 degrees across central and eastern
Oklahoma. Elsewhere, heat index values of 105 to 110 are
possible.

.Thunderstorms...
There is a marginal risk of thunderstorms late this afternoon into
early Sunday morning across northern and central Oklahoma, mainly
near and north of a line from Elk City to Oklahoma City to
Cromwell. Strong to severe wind gusts of 60 to 70 mph, locally
heavy rainfall, and hail up to the size of golf balls are possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday...

.Heat...
Hot weather will continue across north Texas and southern Oklahoma
for the next few days. While temperatures across northern and
central Oklahoma may not be as hot on Sunday, the heat will return
to these areas on Monday and continue into the week.

.Thunderstorms...
The chance of thunderstorms will continue Sunday as a cold front
remains across the area. There are low chances of storms across
northern Oklahoma Tuesday night through Friday.

Get graphics and more details at weather.gov/norman...and follow
our weather forecast office on Twitter and Facebook.

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