Severe Thunderstorm Warning 620, NWS Norman, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
614 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 1210 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024

Here we are, back in a stormy pattern, though different from
previous weeks. Rather than drylines and cold fronts, this week's
weather is brought to you mainly by warm air advection and northwest
flow.

At the time of writing, we sit with easterly surface flow and a warm
front draped across north Texas from about Sweetwater to Aspermont
to Denton. A swath of 3000-4000 joules of MUCAPE is advecting north
through western north Texas and set to overspread much of western
Oklahoma by morning. With a modest low level jet and moderate deep
layer shear developing, we could (20-30% chance; note, CAMs may have
a low bias in coverage as is sometimes seen in WAA schemes) see a
few storms (including a few strong to severe) develop in this region
of warm air advection. These would mainly be elevated hailers.

Instability peaks around 12Z, then gradually dwindles north to south
through the day. However, this is when upper level support finally
gets going across much of the region, allowing for an uptick in
showers and storms. With the loss of the low level jet and dwindling
instability, severe chances will be on the downtick despite
increasing coverage of storms.

CAMs depict another round of storms developing late this afternoon /
evening off the dryline in western Texas. These storms will make
their way eastward through the evening into western north Texas and
southwest Oklahoma, though what environment they encounter will
depend partly on convection earlier in the day. Most models suggest
a lack of instability, limiting the severe risk.

Day

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 209 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024

As mentioned in the short term, this week's weather will be largely
driven by warm air advection and northwest flow, keeping rain
chances in the forecast daily (especially during overnight periods).
With sustained southerly flow, moisture and instability will likely
remain plentiful through the week (big picture view), though deep
layer shear tends to drop off after Tuesday. Flooding may become the
bigger issue as we see round after round of rainfall adding up by
late week.

With all the rain and cloud cover, temperatures will be a bit cooler
(highs in the upper 70s and lower 80s), albeit muggy. By this
weekend, however, we may see temperatures start to inch back up,
though synoptic uncertainty is high.

Day

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 614 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024

Multiple waves of showers and thunderstorms are expected over the
next 24 hours, especially across southwestern Oklahoma and western
north Texas (including KSPS, KLAW and near KCSM). Apart from the
showers and thunderstorms themselves, VFR conditions are expected
in general through the day, but some stratus with MVFR ceilings
will become more common overnight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  81  63  79  65 /  50  40  60  30
Hobart OK         82  63  80  65 /  70  60  50  40
Wichita Falls TX  83  65  81  66 /  70  60  50  30
Gage OK           81  59  80  62 /  50  50  40  40
Ponca City OK     81  62  80  63 /  30  30  40  20
Durant OK         81  65  80  66 /  50  50  60  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...26

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Norman OK
1017 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-291530-
Harper-Woods-Alfalfa-Grant-Kay-Ellis-Woodward-Major-Garfield-
Noble-Roger Mills-Dewey-Custer-Blaine-Kingfisher-Logan-Payne-
Beckham-Washita-Caddo-Canadian-Oklahoma-Lincoln-Grady-McClain-
Cleveland-Pottawatomie-Seminole-Hughes-Harmon-Greer-Kiowa-Jackson-
Tillman-Comanche-Stephens-Garvin-Murray-Pontotoc-Coal-Cotton-
Jefferson-Carter-Johnston-Atoka-Love-Marshall-Bryan-Hardeman-
Foard-Wilbarger-Wichita-Knox-Baylor-Archer-Clay-
1017 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northern...
western...central...and southern Oklahoma...and western north
Texas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight...

.Thunderstorms...
Scattered thunderstorms will continue through the morning hours
and into the early afternoon hours across portions of northwest
into western Oklahoma. A few of these storms will be severe with
large hail, to the size of golf balls, the main hazard. Heavy rain
will be possible with these storms.

Additional rounds of storms will be possible late this afternoon
through this evening, with a severe risk for large hail and
damaging wind. Most of the storms, along with the severe storm
risk, will be over western Oklahoma and western north Texas this
evening.

.Flooding...
Repeated rounds of thunderstorms, including heavy rain, are
possible this evening and overnight. This could result in
flooding, mainly across western north Texas and southwest
Oklahoma.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday...

.Thunderstorms...
There will be a chance of thunderstorms each day through Sunday
with the most widespread thunderstorms expected to be overnight
each night as thunderstorm complexes move into Oklahoma and north
Texas from the High Plains. There will be the potential for strong
to possible severe storms each day, but the risk and areas that
could be affected will become better defined as those days
approach.

.Flooding...
Rain accumulations over several days could also result in a
potential for flooding later this week.

Get graphics and more details at weather.gov/norman...and follow
our weather forecast office on Twitter and Facebook.

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Norman OK
1018 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024

OKZ009-010-015-281545-
Woodward OK-Dewey OK-Ellis OK-
1018 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of east central Ellis,
northwestern Dewey and southwestern Woodward Counties through 1045 AM
CDT...

At 1018 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 5
miles northeast of Harmon, moving east at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor damage to outdoor objects is possible.

Locations impacted include...
Vici and Sharon.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3609 9955 3624 9956 3628 9930 3609 9924
TIME...MOT...LOC 1518Z 265DEG 14KT 3619 9947

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...<30 MPH

Mahale

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Norman OK
1039 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1025 AM     Hail             3 ENE Fargo             36.39N 99.57W
05/28/2024  E1.00 Inch       Woodward           OK   CO-OP Observer

&&

oun

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Norman OK
1043 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1039 AM     Hail             Mutual                  36.23N 99.17W
05/28/2024  E1.00 Inch       Woodward           OK   Trained Spotter

&&

oun

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Norman OK
1051 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024

OKZ004-009-281615-
Harper OK-Ellis OK-
1051 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of north central Ellis
and southwestern Harper Counties through 1115 AM CDT...

At 1051 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Laverne, moving southeast at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor damage to outdoor objects is possible.

Locations impacted include...
Laverne and May.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3677 10000 3679 9997 3667 9960 3647 9984
      3660 10000
TIME...MOT...LOC 1551Z 302DEG 19KT 3670 9997

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...<30 MPH

Mahale