Severe Thunderstorm Warning 261, NWS Norman, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
302 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 300 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024

Daytime heating this afternoon will support the chance for isolated
to widely scattered thunderstorms along a diffuse dryline as
convective inhibition weakens across western Oklahoma. Effective
bulk shear will be modest (~35 knots) for supercells. The expected
hazards will be damaging wind gusts and hail; however, if any
supercell can sustain themselves into the evening, there will be a
short window of opportunity for a low tornado threat as the low-
level jet strengthens with an attendant increase in low-level
storm relative helicity. Thunderstorms should weaken with the loss
of daytime heating as convective inhibition strengthens.

Additional thunderstorms are expected to develop across Kansas in
association with a cold front, which will likely move southward into
north central Oklahoma tonight. Warm air advection associated
with a low-level jet may result in continued development in this
zone. Given the heavy rainfall they experienced with the last
event, we opted to issue a Flood Watch for north central Oklahoma.

For tomorrow, the uncertainty is on how far southwest the outflow
boundary from the morning thunderstorms will progress. This
boundary may serve as a focus for redevelopment tomorrow
afternoon. Another scenario is that convection may continue to
move to the southwest through the day and never fully dissipate.
In addition, the dryline should retreat farther to the west, into
the Texas and Oklahoma panhandles. Both of these boundaries (and
any associated intersection) will result in a chance for
thunderstorms tomorrow afternoon. Strong to severe thunderstorms
will be possible.

Tomorrow night, there is evidence that any ongoing thunderstorms
may consolidate into one or two complexes that will move across
the area.

Mahale

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Monday)
Issued at 300 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024

There remains uncertainty on where the cold front will be
Thursday as it will depend on what happens Wednesday night. The
cold front will likely get another southward push on Thursday with
another chance of showers and thunderstorms.

The aforementioned cold front will likely lift back to the north
on Friday with persistent southwest flow into the upcoming
weekend. As a result, there will be continued periods of showers
and thunderstorms. Flooding will likely become a hazard in some
locations given the recent rainfall across the area.

Mahale

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1218 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024

VFR and MVFR ceilings are expected this TAF period. A frontal
boundary is expected to move into parts of northern OK overnight
which will cause winds in this area to shift towards the E and NE.
Isolated/widely scattered storms are possible late
afternoon/evening but chances too low for any particular TAF
sites. However, current thoughts are highest chances would be
SW OK/western north TX and in N OK. More widespread storms will be
possible overnight into Wednesday morning in north
central/northern OK with the boundary.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  63  79  64  78 /  30  50  40  80
Hobart OK         62  82  61  81 /  20  40  50  40
Wichita Falls TX  65  82  64  83 /  50  30  60  50
Gage OK           58  87  58  79 /  20  40  40  20
Ponca City OK     61  80  65  77 /  80  50  50  90
Durant OK         65  83  65  79 /  20  30  60  80

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flood Watch from 9 PM CDT this evening through Wednesday morning
     for OKZ007-008-012-013.

TX...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...25

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Norman OK
454 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-012200-
Harper-Woods-Alfalfa-Grant-Kay-Ellis-Woodward-Major-Garfield-
Noble-Roger Mills-Dewey-Custer-Blaine-Kingfisher-Logan-Payne-
Beckham-Washita-Caddo-Canadian-Oklahoma-Lincoln-Grady-McClain-
Cleveland-Pottawatomie-Seminole-Hughes-Harmon-Greer-Kiowa-Jackson-
Tillman-Comanche-Stephens-Garvin-Murray-Pontotoc-Coal-Cotton-
Jefferson-Carter-Johnston-Atoka-Love-Marshall-Bryan-Hardeman-
Foard-Wilbarger-Wichita-Knox-Baylor-Archer-Clay-
454 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northern...
western...central...and southern Oklahoma...and western north
Texas.

.DAY ONE...Through Tonight...

.Thunderstorms...
Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing across western Oklahoma into
north Texas this afternoon. These thunderstorms will persist into
the evening with a threat for large hail and damaging wind gusts.

Additional thunderstorms are likely across north central Oklahoma
later tonight.

.Heavy Rainfall...
Heavy rainfall could lead to localized flooding this evening and
overnight across northern Oklahoma.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday...

.Thunderstorms...
Thunderstorm chances continue Wednesday and Thursday with severe
weather possible both days. Thunderstorms are also possible Friday
and over the weekend.

.Heavy Rainfall...
Repeated rounds of thunderstorms with heavy rainfall could lead to
localized flooding in some areas through the weekend.

Get graphics and more details at weather.gov/norman...and follow
our weather forecast office on Twitter and Facebook.

Mahale

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Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Norman OK
451 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0435 PM     Hail             5 N Granite             35.04N 99.38W
04/30/2024  E1.50 Inch       Greer              OK   Emergency Mngr

            Relayed image. Radar estimated time.

&&

MDU

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Norman OK
514 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024

OKZ036-037-TXZ083-085-302245-
Tillman OK-Jackson OK-Wilbarger TX-Hardeman TX-
514 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southwestern
Jackson, west central Tillman, northwestern Wilbarger and east
central Hardeman Counties through 545 PM CDT...

At 513 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles northeast of Quanah, moving northeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor damage to outdoor objects is possible.

Locations impacted include...
Altus, Olustee, Eldorado, Elmer, Odell, and Hess.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3426 9963 3439 9976 3468 9935 3435 9915
TIME...MOT...LOC 2213Z 240DEG 28KT 3435 9962

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...<30 MPH

TL

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Norman OK
524 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0521 PM     Hail             Cordell                 35.29N 98.99W
04/30/2024  E1.00 Inch       Washita            OK   Public

            Report from mPING: Quarter (1.00 in.).

&&

MDU