Flash Flood Warning 95, NWS Norman, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
222 PM CST Sun Nov 3 2024

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 214 PM CST Sun Nov 3 2024

-Severe weather risk will continue through Monday, with damaging
 winds and tornadoes likely.

-Considerable flash flooding potential through Monday.

-Cooler and drier weather Tuesday and Wednesday, before rain/storm
 chances return.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of today and tonight)
Issued at 214 PM CST Sun Nov 3 2024

Warm front has made impressive northward movement today in wake of
last night/this mornings activity. This has allowed the warm
sector/moisture feed to surge northward across southwest Oklahoma
and is expected to spread into central and southern Oklahoma the
rest of this afternoon. Wind shear has become strong after some lull
this morning, and ample instability will spread over the mentioned
areas. Organized severe weather, primarily in the form of damaging
wind gusts and tornadoes are expected to spread eastward across
northern Texas and the southern half of Oklahoma this afternoon and
evening. In addition to the severe weather risk, additional rainfall
will lead to a continued risk for flooding.

In the wake of todays activity, effective frontal boundary expected
to stall or even lift back north tonight and tomorrow. This will
yield at least moderate potential for late night warm advection
storms across southern and central portions of Oklahoma then spread
northward into northern Oklahoma early tomorrow morning.&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Monday through Tuesday night)
Issued at 214 PM CST Sun Nov 3 2024

With main upper system swinging through tomorrow, additional
severe weather is anticipated, especially near and east of
Interstate-35 during the afternoon, some of which could be
significant. To end it all, wrap around showers expect across
northern Oklahoma into or through Monday night.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Saturday)
Issued at 214 PM CST Sun Nov 3 2024

Drier and cool weather for Tuesday and Wednesday, before another
large upper trough approaches and increases the chances of rain by
the end of the week into next weekend. Heavy rain appears likely
again where it occurs, with the added flavor of a forecasted
tropical system in the northern Gulf which could increase flooding
potential into next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1151 AM CST Sun Nov 3 2024

Mainly MVFR conditions (with IFR conditions in and near TSRA) most
terminals with several hours of SHRA and TSRA through the
forecast period. Main TSRA impacts will be across western north
Texas and southern Oklahoma this afternoon and evening, with
another round late tonight through Monday morning. TSRA should
start to exit the region late Monday afternoon and early evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  61  70  46  60 /  70  90  20   0
Hobart OK         58  71  41  63 /  80  90  20   0
Wichita Falls TX  62  75  47  64 /  60  80  10   0
Gage OK           50  62  37  62 /  40  80  60   0
Ponca City OK     59  69  46  60 /  50  90  40   0
Durant OK         65  77  53  66 /  90 100  60  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flood Watch through Monday afternoon for OKZ007-008-012-013-
     017>020-023>032-035>048-050>052.

TX...Flood Watch through Monday afternoon for TXZ083>090.

&&

NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...11

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Norman OK
246 PM CST Sun Nov 3 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0230 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     Medicine Park           34.73N 98.50W
11/03/2024  M67 MPH          Comanche           OK   Mesonet

            Medicine Park Mesonet.

&&

MDU

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Norman OK
412 PM CST Sun Nov 3 2024

OKZ025>030-032300-
Grady OK-Oklahoma OK-Pottawatomie OK-Cleveland OK-McClain OK-
Lincoln OK-
412 PM CST Sun Nov 3 2024

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of east central Grady,
southwestern Lincoln, Oklahoma, Cleveland, Pottawatomie and McClain
Counties through 500 PM CST...

At 412 PM CST, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Oklahoma City to 5 miles west of Wayne.
Movement was east at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Oklahoma City, Norman, Edmond, Moore, Midwest City, Shawnee, Del
City, Newcastle, Blanchard, Tecumseh, Purcell, Chandler, Choctaw,
Noble, Harrah, Slaughterville, McLoud, Spencer, Jones, and Nicoma
Park.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3496 9692 3496 9693 3486 9693 3486 9785
      3568 9745 3577 9684
TIME...MOT...LOC 2212Z 253DEG 33KT 3562 9732 3492 9741

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Mahale

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Norman OK
414 PM CST Sun Nov 3 2024

OKZ013-019-020-026-032300-
Payne OK-Logan OK-Lincoln OK-Noble OK-
414 PM CST Sun Nov 3 2024

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of northwestern Lincoln,
southern Noble, central Logan and Payne Counties through 500 PM
CST...

At 414 PM CST, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Morrison to 6 miles southeast of Guthrie.
Movement was northeast at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Stillwater, Guthrie, Cushing, Perkins, Langston, Yale, Morrison,
Glencoe, Tryon, Ripley, Coyle, Mulhall, Orlando, Meridian, Lake Carl
Blackwell, Lake Mcmurtry, Quay, and Ingalls.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3633 9703 3633 9692 3625 9692 3624 9682
      3616 9682 3616 9662 3610 9662 3595 9671
      3572 9746 3573 9747 3616 9751 3616 9746
      3619 9746 3640 9703
TIME...MOT...LOC 2214Z 238DEG 40KT 3631 9705 3577 9736

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Mahale