Flash Flood Warning 90, NWS Norman, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
222 PM CST Sun Nov 3 2024

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 214 PM CST Sun Nov 3 2024

-Severe weather risk will continue through Monday, with damaging
 winds and tornadoes likely.

-Considerable flash flooding potential through Monday.

-Cooler and drier weather Tuesday and Wednesday, before rain/storm
 chances return.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of today and tonight)
Issued at 214 PM CST Sun Nov 3 2024

Warm front has made impressive northward movement today in wake of
last night/this mornings activity. This has allowed the warm
sector/moisture feed to surge northward across southwest Oklahoma
and is expected to spread into central and southern Oklahoma the
rest of this afternoon. Wind shear has become strong after some lull
this morning, and ample instability will spread over the mentioned
areas. Organized severe weather, primarily in the form of damaging
wind gusts and tornadoes are expected to spread eastward across
northern Texas and the southern half of Oklahoma this afternoon and
evening. In addition to the severe weather risk, additional rainfall
will lead to a continued risk for flooding.

In the wake of todays activity, effective frontal boundary expected
to stall or even lift back north tonight and tomorrow. This will
yield at least moderate potential for late night warm advection
storms across southern and central portions of Oklahoma then spread
northward into northern Oklahoma early tomorrow morning.&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Monday through Tuesday night)
Issued at 214 PM CST Sun Nov 3 2024

With main upper system swinging through tomorrow, additional
severe weather is anticipated, especially near and east of
Interstate-35 during the afternoon, some of which could be
significant. To end it all, wrap around showers expect across
northern Oklahoma into or through Monday night.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Saturday)
Issued at 214 PM CST Sun Nov 3 2024

Drier and cool weather for Tuesday and Wednesday, before another
large upper trough approaches and increases the chances of rain by
the end of the week into next weekend. Heavy rain appears likely
again where it occurs, with the added flavor of a forecasted
tropical system in the northern Gulf which could increase flooding
potential into next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1151 AM CST Sun Nov 3 2024

Mainly MVFR conditions (with IFR conditions in and near TSRA) most
terminals with several hours of SHRA and TSRA through the
forecast period. Main TSRA impacts will be across western north
Texas and southern Oklahoma this afternoon and evening, with
another round late tonight through Monday morning. TSRA should
start to exit the region late Monday afternoon and early evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  61  70  46  60 /  70  90  20   0
Hobart OK         58  71  41  63 /  80  90  20   0
Wichita Falls TX  62  75  47  64 /  60  80  10   0
Gage OK           50  62  37  62 /  40  80  60   0
Ponca City OK     59  69  46  60 /  50  90  40   0
Durant OK         65  77  53  66 /  90 100  60  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flood Watch through Monday afternoon for OKZ007-008-012-013-
     017>020-023>032-035>048-050>052.

TX...Flood Watch through Monday afternoon for TXZ083>090.

&&

NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...11

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Norman OK
125 PM CST Sun Nov 3 2024

OKZ033-034-TXZ083-032000-
Harmon OK-Greer OK-Hardeman TX-
125 PM CST Sun Nov 3 2024

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southern Harmon,
south central Greer and northwestern Hardeman Counties through 200 PM
CST...

At 124 PM CST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 11
miles northeast of Kirkland, moving north at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Hollis, Gould, McKnight, and McQueen.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3460 10000 3488 9990 3478 9960 3472 9964
      3472 9967 3469 9967 3451 9981 3450 9984
      3449 9982 3436 9992 3442 10000
TIME...MOT...LOC 1924Z 201DEG 21KT 3450 9992

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Mahale

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Norman OK
126 PM CST Sun Nov 3 2024

OKZ043-048-032015-
Coal OK-Atoka OK-
126 PM CST Sun Nov 3 2024

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southeastern Coal
and Atoka Counties through 215 PM CST...

At 126 PM CST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Tushka, moving north at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Atoka, Coalgate, Stringtown, Lehigh, Tushka, Caney, Lane, Phillips,
Atoka Reservoir, Chockie, Bentley, Redden, Boggy Depot Park, and
northern McGee Creek Lake.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3455 9574 3416 9606 3416 9641 3462 9626
TIME...MOT...LOC 1926Z 201DEG 21KT 3432 9624

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Mahale

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Norman OK
207 PM CST Sun Nov 3 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0206 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     4 E Tipton              34.51N 99.07W
11/03/2024  E60 MPH          Tillman            OK   Trained Spotter

            Trained spotter reports 60mph winds west of
            Manitou.

&&

MSD