Flash Flood Warning 5, NWS Norman, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
210 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 208 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

Strong to severe storms moving through southwest Oklahoma and
western north Texas will expand northeast and continue to move east
and northeast across the area early this morning. This activity is
expected to move east of the area by mid/late morning, exiting
southeast Oklahoma.

After the storms exit, the remainder of the day looks to be a bit
more tranquil (at least wrt rain/storms) with very warm and windy
conditions. There is a very low chance of redevelopment near I-35
corridor this afternoon, but currently chances look too low to
mention in forecast at this point.

Meanwhile across portions of western and northwestern Oklahoma,
where they will be west of a dryline elevated to near critical
fire weather conditions are expected to develop by this afternoon.
Will likely issue a fire danger statement for this area.

As we go through the night tonight, the dryline will retreat back
westward and will be near the 100th meridian by daybreak Saturday.
With the retreating dryline and breezy south winds continuing
through the night, temperatures will only fall into the mid 60s
across much of the area with slightly cooler conditions across the
west, in the slightly drier air.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 208 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

Another strong upper trough will approach the southern Plains
Saturday. In advance of the main system a minor disturbance may
provide sufficient lift early in the day for an initial round of
storms to develop across northern Texas and move into southwest and
then into central Oklahoma. The environment at that time will
already be conducive for severe storms, capable of producing large
hail, damaging wind gusts and at least some chance for a tornado or
two. This would also add some complexity to what might occur later
in the day as the main trough approaches the area.

Early morning convection could linger, which might limit the
instability, but could also provide additional boundaries for
convection later on. However, even with this potential caveat,
expect scattered storms to develop near the dryline across western
Oklahoma south into western north Texas as the main upper storm
system moves out into the Plains Saturday afternoon. With CAPE
values of 2000 to 3000 J/kg and strengthening wind fields expected
by afternoon and into the evening hours, supercell thunderstorms
capable of producing all severe hazards, which includes tornadoes,
will be possible.

This activity will then grow upscale into a line of storms that will
make its way slowly east overnight. Heavy, potentially flooding
rainfall, will also be a concern with this overnight activity.

Again some lingering storms may continue to impact parts of
southeast Oklahoma through the day Sunday.

Unsettled weather looks to continue through much of next week,
although no strong signal for much in the way of organized severe.
However sufficient moisture will be present to produce modest
instability most days, so some isolated severe storms not out of the
question, especially the second half of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1040 PM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024

MVFR ceilings are expected to persist into Friday morning at most
TAF sites. A line of thunderstorms is expected to enter western
Oklahoma after 06z and move into central Oklahoma before sunrise.
Some severe storms with large hail are expected. Storms will move
east of all TAF sites apart from KDUA around 13z. Gusty south
winds will persist.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  83  66  76  59 /  20   0  80  80
Hobart OK         86  61  79  56 /   0   0  70  50
Wichita Falls TX  86  66  77  59 /  10   0  80  80
Gage OK           86  56  84  54 /   0   0  30  20
Ponca City OK     84  66  79  59 /  30   0  80  80
Durant OK         79  68  81  63 /  90  10  70  80

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...09

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