Flash Flood Warning 48, NWS Norman, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1047 PM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 912 PM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024

POPS over central and southeastern Oklahoma have been increased
from late this evening into mid-morning Tuesday. There is some
persistence in signals for scattered thunderstorms to develop in
a warm-advection regime across parts of central Oklahoma around
midnight. Some of these could produce large hail and strong wind
gusts.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 154 PM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024

Storm potential this evening will transition from southwest
Oklahoma/western north Texas to the northeast, as several members of
the 12Z HREF depict thunderstorm development in central Oklahoma
between sunset and midnight. This appears to be triggered by an
elevated warm front along the leading edge of the LLJ, as MUCAPE
rises to near 4,000 J/kg late in the evening. Bulk shear will be
sufficient for the development of likely elevated supercells
initially, which will pose a threat for large to very large hail
near the OKC metro. Thereafter, the continued strengthening of the
low-level jet will likely induce further convection initiation
and the development of an MCS, which guidance shows moving south-
southeast into south central Oklahoma with more of a risk for
damaging wind gusts. All of this remains lower-confidence, but
sufficient signal and meteorological reasoning exists for us to
keep a close watch on this potential round of storms.

One thing you learn in this area and in this time of year is to
never say "Tomorrow will be dry". But... at least for now, there is
an indication of weakening of deep-layer flow and potentially no
obvious boundaries to initiate convection tomorrow afternoon. Most
guidance indicates a rather warm-to-hot day with highs in the low
90s to low 100s. There's some reason to be doubtful given the
widespread rain today, but this would just turn the day more humid
rather than more pleasant.

A breath of northwest flow returns into our area tomorrow night, so
another MCS will likely occur sometime overnight mostly north of I-
40. We'll get those details locked down as uncertainty gets reduced.

Meister

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 154 PM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024

This is an especially difficult long-term AFD to write, because,
well... it's especially difficult to figure out what's going to
happen beginning on Wednesday.

A powerful mid-latitude jet will eject into the northern Plains
during the day on Wednesday, which will be the primary driver of
this uncertainty. It will create a northeast-to-southwest dipole,
with an unseasonably strong (594 dam) ridge across the Staked Plains
and an unseasonably strong (549 dam) trough across the Upper Great
Lakes. Between that, we'll find ourselves right on the northeastern
fringe of the ridge. This could play out in a couple of different
ways - either we could end up with just enough northwest flow to
keep nightly MCSs moving into our area, especially the northeast
portion, or we could end up hot and dry. We could end up both - June
2023 in Wichita Falls was hot and dry even while OKC and points
north were repeatedly receiving heavy rainfall and cooler
temperatures. Right now, I'd lean towards using the experience from
2023 and the last few weeks here in 2024 where chances for storms
have largely overperformed model guidance rather than vice versa.
This might signal a somewhat more active and cooler than normal end
to the week and weekend, especially further north and east in our
area.

Meister

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1045 PM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024

Thunderstorms are expected through daybreak across central and
southeastern Oklahoma. MVFR ceilings are generally expected
tonight and Tuesday morning before lifting during the afternoon.
South to southeast winds will be common before a weak cold front
shifts them to north at KWWR around 18Z and passes through central
Oklahoma after sunset.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  69  90  69  90 /  40  20  40   0
Hobart OK         68  96  69  94 /  20   0  20   0
Wichita Falls TX  71  97  71  92 /  20  10  20   0
Gage OK           66  91  64  95 /  10  10  10   0
Ponca City OK     66  86  66  90 /  40  10  50   0
Durant OK         70  90  72  88 /  50  30  40  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flood Watch until 4 AM CDT Tuesday for OKZ023>031-033>042-
     044>047.

TX...Flood Watch until 4 AM CDT Tuesday for TXZ083>090.

&&

SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...09

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Norman OK
1010 PM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-041945-
Harper-Woods-Alfalfa-Grant-Kay-Ellis-Woodward-Major-Garfield-
Noble-Roger Mills-Dewey-Custer-Blaine-Kingfisher-Logan-Payne-
Beckham-Washita-Caddo-Canadian-Oklahoma-Lincoln-Grady-McClain-
Cleveland-Pottawatomie-Seminole-Hughes-Harmon-Greer-Kiowa-Jackson-
Tillman-Comanche-Stephens-Garvin-Murray-Pontotoc-Coal-Cotton-
Jefferson-Carter-Johnston-Atoka-Love-Marshall-Bryan-Hardeman-Foard-
Wilbarger-Wichita-Knox-Baylor-Archer-Clay-
1010 PM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northern...
western...central...and southern Oklahoma...and western north
Texas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight...

.Thunderstorms...
Thunderstorms are expected tonight in central and southeastern
Oklahoma, with hail up to 2 inches in diameter possible along with
damaging winds.

Heavy rainfall will also be possible with the storms.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday...

.Thunderstorms...
Strong to severe storms will be possible mainly Tuesday afternoon
and evening as storms develop south into the area along and ahead
of an advancing cold front.

Thunderstorm chances return late Thursday night and continue
through the weekend. Although widespread severe is not expected at
this time, a few strong to severe storms may occur.

Get graphics and more details at weather.gov/norman...and follow
our weather forecast office on Twitter and Facebook.

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Norman OK
1224 AM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024

OKZ024-025-027>029-040630-
Grady OK-Oklahoma OK-Canadian OK-Cleveland OK-McClain OK-
1224 AM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northeastern Grady,
southwestern Oklahoma, northwestern Cleveland, southeastern Canadian
and northwestern McClain Counties through 130 AM CDT...

At 1224 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 4
miles southwest of Tuttle, moving northeast at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 40 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Southwestern Oklahoma City, western Norman, Moore, Newcastle,
Mustang, Tuttle, Bridge Creek, and Will Rogers Airport.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor NOAA Weather
Radio, local radio stations or available television stations for
additional information and possible warnings from the National
Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3514 9782 3530 9792 3546 9767 3539 9752
      3522 9751
TIME...MOT...LOC 0524Z 242DEG 11KT 3526 9780

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Bunker

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Norman OK
1231 AM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024

OKZ025-026-029-030-040615-
Oklahoma OK-Pottawatomie OK-Cleveland OK-Lincoln OK-
1231 AM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southwestern
Lincoln, southeastern Oklahoma, northeastern Cleveland and
northwestern Pottawatomie Counties through 115 AM CDT...

At 1231 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
southeastern Oklahoma City, moving northeast at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 40 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Southeastern Oklahoma City, Norman, Moore, Midwest City, Del City,
Choctaw, Harrah, McLoud, Pink, Valley Brook, Stella, Tinker Air Force
Base, Stanley Draper Lake, Dale, Newalla, Lake Thunderbird, Bethel
Acres, and Little Axe.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor NOAA Weather
Radio, local radio stations or available television stations for
additional information and possible warnings from the National
Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3519 9749 3542 9752 3555 9707 3521 9698
TIME...MOT...LOC 0531Z 247DEG 17KT 3532 9736

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Bunker

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Norman OK
1252 AM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024

OKZ031-032-040645-
Hughes OK-Seminole OK-
1252 AM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northeastern
Seminole and northwestern Hughes Counties through 145 AM CDT...

At 1252 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 5
miles east of Seminole, moving northeast at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 40 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Seminole, Wewoka, Wetumka, Cromwell, and Lima.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor NOAA Weather
Radio, local radio stations or available television stations for
additional information and possible warnings from the National
Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3524 9621 3510 9660 3526 9670 3539 9654
      3539 9653 3540 9653 3544 9648 3546 9646
      3545 9644 3529 9644 3529 9626
TIME...MOT...LOC 0552Z 241DEG 8KT 3522 9658

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Bunker