Flash Flood Warning 4, NWS Norman, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
629 PM CDT Mon Apr 1 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 112 PM CDT Mon Apr 1 2024

Today/Tonight: An impactful severe weather episode remains on track
to impact much of the forecast area from late this afternoon through
late Monday night. Morning water vapor imagery captures a compact
shortwave trough quickly translating across northern Mexico into
Trans Pecos. A dryline, currently extending from central Kansas to
the eastern Texas Panhandle, is forecast to continue mixing
eastward, eventually stalling near U.S. Highway 183 by the late
afternoon. As rather robust height falls/synoptic forcing
overspreads the dryline, coincident with decreasing convective
inhibition, widespread thunderstorm development is expected. Any
organized storm will harbor a severe weather risk.

Large to very large (isolated baseball-size or larger events) hail
remains the primary hazard today. The combination of very strong
cloud and deep-layer wind shear, steep lapse rates and sufficient
instability will promote hail in any organized thunderstorm.
Precipitation-loaded damaging downdrafts will also be possible,
especially while low-level shear remains relatively weak early in
the event.

Concern for localized higher ("medium") tornado potential is
emerging across south-central into southeast Oklahoma (primarily
east of Interstates 35/44) this evening. This will be favored as low-
level hodographs enlarge, commensurate with a modest low-level
jet (LLJ) increase in the 5-9 PM time frame. We are also
monitoring for potential development of a 'mesolow' near the Red
River vicinity. Should this occur, localized increase in low-level
flow would further favor a corridor of tornado concern with any
ongoing intense supercell storm.

Tuesday: Morning drizzle (north), gusty north winds and unseasonably
cool conditions are expected. As our Monday weather system
accelerates into portions of the Mississippi/Ohio Valley, the region
will observe typical post-frontal conditions through much of the
day. This will include periods of low clouds/drizzle north of
Interstate 40 through the early afternoon. Temperatures areawide
will run as much as 15-25 degrees below normal, in the low to
mid-50s.

Ungar

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 112 PM CDT Mon Apr 1 2024

Sensible weather impacts look minimal throughout much of the mid to
late work week. Global/ensemble guidance depicts a quasi-omega block
developing across the CONUS, with high amplitude systems on either
coast. This will promote a warming trend back towards seasonable
warmth by Friday (60s transitioning to 70s) and mostly dry surface
conditions.

By next weekend, the Pacific coast system will gradually slide
towards the central CONUS. This will introduce increasing chances
for showers and storms from Saturday into Sunday. Temperatures are
expected to remain near seasonable (70s) through the weekend period.

Ungar

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 619 PM CDT Mon Apr 1 2024

Current storm activity will continue to affect our terminals at
least through 04Z which will be briefly lowering ceilings to MVFR
as well as reducing visibilities in rain. A cold front currently
pushing through northern & western Oklahoma will result in
northerly wind shifts behind the front and should be through our
entire area by 12Z. Terminals will see sustained wind speeds at
15-20 kts with gusts at 25-30 kts. Ceilings will lower behind the
cold front resulting in MVFR to IFR conditions through 18Z, then
expected to raise slightly maintaining VFR conditions through the
rest of the forecast.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  44  53  39  64 /  50  20   0   0
Hobart OK         42  56  37  69 /  30  10   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  47  58  41  71 /  30  10   0   0
Gage OK           36  58  34  68 /  80  10   0   0
Ponca City OK     42  55  36  62 /  80  30   0   0
Durant OK         52  63  43  68 /  60   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...34
LONG TERM....34
AVIATION...68

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Norman OK
1240 PM CDT Mon Apr 1 2024

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-021745-
Harper-Woods-Alfalfa-Grant-Kay-Ellis-Woodward-Major-Garfield-
Noble-Roger Mills-Dewey-Custer-Blaine-Kingfisher-Logan-Payne-
Beckham-Washita-Caddo-Canadian-Oklahoma-Lincoln-Grady-McClain-
Cleveland-Pottawatomie-Seminole-Hughes-Harmon-Greer-Kiowa-Jackson-
Tillman-Comanche-Stephens-Garvin-Murray-Pontotoc-Coal-Cotton-
Jefferson-Carter-Johnston-Atoka-Love-Marshall-Bryan-Hardeman-
Foard-Wilbarger-Wichita-Knox-Baylor-Archer-Clay-
1240 PM CDT Mon Apr 1 2024

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northern...
western...central...and southern Oklahoma...and western north
Texas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight...

.Thunderstorms...
Late this afternoon and evening, severe thunderstorms will likely
develop, with the highest potential east of a line from Woodward
to Vernon, Texas. Very large hail up to the size of baseballs or
larger and damaging wind gusts up to 80 mph will be possible. In
addition, there is a medium chance for tornadoes, primarily east
of Interstates 35/44 this evening (between 5-10 PM). The severe
threat should end after 11 PM.

.SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT STATEMENT...
Storm spotter groups and emergency management personnel across
Oklahoma and north Texas should prepare for severe weather
operations from 2 PM to 11 PM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday...

.Thunderstorms...
Thunderstorm chances return Saturday and Sunday to Oklahoma and
north Texas.

.Fire Weather...
Elevated to near critical fire weather conditions look to develop
over the weekend across far western Oklahoma/north Texas.

Get graphics and more details at weather.gov/norman...and follow
our weather forecast office on Twitter and Facebook.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Norman OK
619 PM CDT Mon Apr 1 2024

OKZ017-022>024-012345-
Washita OK-Canadian OK-Caddo OK-Blaine OK-
619 PM CDT Mon Apr 1 2024

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northeastern
Washita, northwestern Caddo, south central Blaine and northwestern
Canadian Counties through 645 PM CDT
...

At 619 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 6
miles south of Hydro, moving northeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor damage to outdoor objects is possible.

Locations impacted include...
Hinton, Geary, Calumet, Colony, Bridgeport, and Greenfield.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3547 9864 3547 9862 3548 9862 3577 9838
      3561 9811 3533 9854 3537 9872
TIME...MOT...LOC 2319Z 225DEG 27KT 3545 9856

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...<30 MPH

Mahale

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Norman OK
625 PM CDT Mon Apr 1 2024

OKZ019-020-024-025-020000-
Payne OK-Oklahoma OK-Logan OK-Canadian OK-
625 PM CDT Mon Apr 1 2024

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of northern Oklahoma,
southern Logan, southwestern Payne and eastern Canadian Counties
through 700 PM CDT
...

At 625 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Guthrie to near Yukon. Movement was
northeast at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Northern Oklahoma City, Edmond, Guthrie, Yukon, Bethany, Warr Acres,
The Village, Piedmont, Nichols Hills, Jones, Langston, Luther, Coyle,
Arcadia, Meridian, Woodlawn Park, Lake Aluma, Seward, Richland, and
Navina.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor NOAA Weather
Radio, local radio stations or available television stations for
additional information and possible warnings from the National
Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3605 9714 3565 9715 3538 9785 3557 9789
      3599 9736
TIME...MOT...LOC 2325Z 227DEG 19KT 3584 9743 3549 9774

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

Mahale

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