Special Weather Statement, NWS New York, NY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
510 AM EDT Fri Aug 2 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Weak low pressure system will be moving in with its front today
and will linger across the area going through this weekend. Weak
high pressure builds into the region on Monday before another
cold front passes through the area Monday night. The front
remains in close proximity to the area through midweek.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Weak low pressure system and associated frontal boundary within
area.

A stronger low pressure system in Great Lakes will be
approaching the local region.

Clouds expected to increase this afternoon from west to east. NE NJ
and Lower Hudson Valley have convection start late afternoon.

There remains a heat advisory in effect. Coastal SE CT and
Eastern Suffolk NY still are not included as temperatures will
be relatively cooler with therefore relatively lower heat
indices, more in the lower 90s.

SW Suffolk was added to the heat advisory with most heat indices in
the mid 90s. Also added Orange and Putnam with heat indices now
expected to reach the mid 90s this afternoon. However, with
these areas in Orange and Putnam expected to have more shower
and thunderstorm activity Saturday and higher POPs, these two
zones have their heat advisory only until 8pm this evening.

A MAV/MET blend for highs but manually lowered for coastal SE CT
(marine influence) and Orange as well as Putnam counties (more cloud
coverage and earlier start time of showers and thunderstorms).

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Heat advisory continues for much of the same areas as listed in
near term for Saturday until 7pm that evening. Models show a
lull in convection for morning into early afternoon before more
convection develops and moves through. Airmass will remain very
humid with mid to upper 90s heat indices forecast for many
locations once again.

The stronger low pressure system continues to move into the area
tonight. The associated cold front will be moving within the region
from west to east.

The cold front appears to come to a halt within the region for the
weekend.

For tonight, the convection moves across the region from west
to east, bulk of it during the evening hours. Drying conditions
overnight gradually re-establish in the area. Moisture laden low
levels and very humid airmass along with lightening winds
expected to result in patchy fog development overnight into
early Saturday morning.

Next round of showers and thunderstorms appears to be late
Saturday afternoon through Saturday night.

More showers and thunderstorms develop Sunday into Sunday evening
within the forecast region.

These next rounds of showers and thunderstorms seem to be tied to
positive vorticity maxima making their way into the local region
ahead of and along a mid level trough. Main trough axis gets to the
local region by Sunday.

Bulk shear increases more for this weekend so thunderstorms
could produce strong to possibly severe wind gusts in addition
to heavy rain.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Weak high pressure briefly builds in for Monday ahead
of a cold front approaching from the NW. The airmass looks to be
drier and more stable, thus chances of convection along the
front late in the day and at night are low.

There is a bit more uncertainty heading into midweek with the
potential for a tropical system near the Southeast coast. It is too
early to specify the interaction with the frontal boundary close the
area for the midweek period. There will be low chances for
convection at this time. The associated tropical disturbance is
being monitored by the NHC for development over the Greater
Antilles. Please refer to the latest NHC products for the monitoring
of this system.

The warmest day in the long term will be Monday with highs in the
upper 80 to lower 80s. By mid week, temperatures will remain in the
upper 70s and 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A frontal system will slowly approach the region today.

VFR. There is a chance of MVFR conditions with showers and
thunderstorms late this afternoon into the evening, with the best
chances north and west of NYC. A stronger thunderstorm is possible
with gusty winds. Will cover the threat of thunder with a TEMPO,
however the timing of TEMPO group may need to be shift an hour or
two in subsequent forecasts.

Winds start off light southerly to light and variable becoming
southerly everywhere and increase to 10-15kt during the afternoon.
Occasional gusts up to 20 kt are possible during the afternoon.
Winds diminish tonight, becoming light and variable at most
terminals.

Tonight, stratus and/or fog is forecast to develop across portions
of the area. IFR or lower conditions will be possible, especially in
areas that receive rainfall.

 NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

There may be a few showers and/or thunderstorms early this
afternoon, then chance of thunderstorms increase later in the day,
with timing uncertain. A stronger thunderstorm with gusty winds is
possible. The timing of the TEMPO group may need to be adjusted by
an hour or two.

Southerly winds may become occasionally gusty at KEWR, KLGA, and
KTEB, up to 20kt.

OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

tonight: Chance of MVFR/IFR showers and thunderstorms, especially
early. Then a chance of IFR in stratus and fog.

Saturday-Sunday: Chance of MVFR or lower in afternoon/evening
showers/thunderstorms.

Monday: VFR.

Tuesday: Mainly VFR. Low chance of showers and thunderstorms.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Sub-SCA conditions expected through much of Saturday. Southerly
fetch builds ocean seas to near SCA levels Saturday afternoon
and at SCA levels by late afternoon for parts of the ocean. More
SCA level ocean seas forecast thereafter through the rest of the
weekend. Wind gusts could also potentially get to SCA levels for
portions of the waters especially for late Saturday afternoon,
Saturday night and into the latter half of this weekend.

Seas will gradually diminish Monday in a weakening flow and a
diminishing southerly swell.

Swells from a potential tropical system off the Southeast coast
could impact the ocean waters later next week. Please refer to
the latest NHC products for the monitoring of this system.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms could lead to some
locally heavy downpours going through this weekend. WPC has a
marginal risk for excessive rainfall for much of the region.
Minor urban and poor drainage flood impacts potential with
PWATs exceeding 2 inches. Localized flash flooding cannot be
ruled out.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A moderate risk of rip currents at ocean beaches continues
today into Saturday, due to a residual 3-ft swell.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT Saturday for CTZ005>010.
NY...Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT Saturday for NYZ069>075-078-
     176>179.
     Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening
     for NYZ067-068.
     Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM EDT Saturday for
     NYZ080.
NJ...Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT Saturday for NJZ002-004-006-
     103>108.
MARINE...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...BC/JM
NEAR TERM...JM
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...BC/JM
HYDROLOGY...BC/JM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service New York NY
452 AM EDT Fri Aug 2 2024

CTZ005>010-NJZ002-004-006-103>108-NYZ069>075-078-176>179-030900-
Northern Fairfield-Northern New Haven-Northern Middlesex-
Northern New London-Southern Fairfield-Southern New Haven-
Western Passaic-Eastern Passaic-Hudson-Western Bergen-Eastern Bergen-
Western Essex-Eastern Essex-Western Union-Eastern Union-Rockland-
Northern Westchester-Southern Westchester-New York (Manhattan)-Bronx-
Richmond (Staten Island)-Kings (Brooklyn)-Northwest Suffolk-
Northern Queens-Northern Nassau-Southern Queens-Southern Nassau-
452 AM EDT Fri Aug 2 2024

...HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EDT SATURDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southern Connecticut,
northeast New Jersey and southeast New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Heat Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Heat Advisory.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

This Hazardous Weather Outlook provides a summary of potential
widespread hazardous weather events that may reach NWS warning
criteria. Most long fused NWS watches, warnings, and advisories in
effect are highlighted.

Please refer to the latest NWS forecasts for weather not meeting NWS
warning criteria.

NYZ067-068-030900-
Orange-Putnam-
452 AM EDT Fri Aug 2 2024

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Heat Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time that would meet NWS
warning criteria.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

This Hazardous Weather Outlook provides a summary of potential
widespread hazardous weather events that may reach NWS warning
criteria. Most long fused NWS watches, warnings, and advisories in
effect are highlighted.

Please refer to the latest NWS forecasts for weather not meeting NWS
warning criteria.

CTZ011-012-NYZ079-081-030900-
Southern Middlesex-Southern New London-Northeast Suffolk-
Southeast Suffolk-
452 AM EDT Fri Aug 2 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southern Connecticut and
southeast New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time that would meet NWS
warning criteria.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

This Hazardous Weather Outlook provides a summary of potential
widespread hazardous weather events that may reach NWS warning
criteria. Most long fused NWS watches, warnings, and advisories in
effect are highlighted.

Please refer to the latest NWS forecasts for weather not meeting NWS
warning criteria.

NYZ080-030900-
Southwest Suffolk-
452 AM EDT Fri Aug 2 2024

...HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM
EDT SATURDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Heat Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Heat Advisory.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

This Hazardous Weather Outlook provides a summary of potential
widespread hazardous weather events that may reach NWS warning
criteria. Most long fused NWS watches, warnings, and advisories in
effect are highlighted.

Please refer to the latest NWS forecasts for weather not meeting NWS
warning criteria.

ANZ331-332-335-338-340-345-350-353-355-030900-
Long Island Sound East of New Haven CT/Port Jefferson NY to the
Mouth of the Connecticut River-
Long Island Sound East of the Mouth of the Connecticut River-
Long Island Sound West of New Haven CT/Port Jefferson NY-
New York Harbor-Peconic and Gardiners Bays-
South Shore Bays from Jones Inlet through Shinnecock Bay-
Moriches Inlet NY to Montauk Point NY out 20 nm-
Fire Island Inlet NY to Moriches Inlet NY out 20 nm-
Sandy Hook NJ to Fire Island Inlet NY out 20 nm-
452 AM EDT Fri Aug 2 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Atlantic coastal waters.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time that would meet NWS
warning criteria.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

This Hazardous Weather Outlook provides a summary of potential
widespread hazardous weather events that may reach NWS warning
criteria. Most long fused NWS watches, warnings, and advisories in
effect are highlighted.

Please refer to the latest NWS forecasts for weather not meeting NWS
warning criteria.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service New York NY
713 AM EDT Fri Aug 2 2024

NYZ067-021200-
Orange NY-
713 AM EDT Fri Aug 2 2024

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT WESTERN ORANGE COUNTY THROUGH 800
AM EDT...

At 712 AM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from Highland Lake to near Hainesville. Movement was
east at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 30 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Middletown, Port Jervis, Warwick, Howells, Florida, Cuddebackville,
Otisville, Huguenot, Unionville, Deerpark, Westtown, Slate Hill, Pine
Island, and New Hampton.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4150 7472 4150 7448 4154 7445 4122 7430
      4121 7438 4136 7469 4137 7469 4139 7471
      4140 7474 4143 7474 4143 7476 4145 7476
      4146 7475 4149 7476
TIME...MOT...LOC 1112Z 257DEG 23KT 4152 7486 4125 7474

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...30 MPH

JM