Snow Squall Warning 4, NWS New York, NY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
328 PM EST Sat Feb 17 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build into the area after a cold frontal passage
early this evening. Another area of low pressure passes well to the
north Sunday and Sunday night, sending a cold front through early
Monday. High pressure builds into the region thereafter, tracking off the
New England coast on Wednesday. Low pressure then approaches from
the west, potentially impacting the region late week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
Snow showers with the chance for snow squalls will continue
over the next hour or two for portions of southern Connecticut
and Long Island. They will then clear out of the area with the
passage of a cold front later this evening. Northwest winds
will relax behind the front, bringing in drier air and clearing
out cloud cover to leave a mostly clear night as high pressure
gradually settles in. Lows will be in the 20s to upper-teens.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Heights continue to rise on Sunday with surface high pressure
building in from the south. At the same time, a surface low tracks
well to the north through Ontario into Quebec. Westerly winds
likely increase Sunday and become gusty due to the increasing
pressure gradient. Temperatures will be below seasonal averages
on Sunday before things start to gradually warm Sunday night
back to near seasonal averages. With high pressure in control,
Sunday into Sunday night will remain mostly clear.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Heights climb to start the period as an upper trough lifts out from
the region. As it exits, a weak wave of low pressure passes well to
the north, dragging a cold front across the region Monday. Lacking
moisture and forcing, the front likely moves through dry, though the
flow veers NW behind it as surface high pressure builds into the
Northeast. The high tracks offshore midweek and onshore flow sets up
for the remainder of the period. Gradual warming trend through the
week, though not too far from normals for late February. Forecast
highs near 40 on Monday climb a couple of degrees each day, peaking
late week in the mid to upper 40s.

Next chance for widespread precipitation appears to come late
Thursday into Friday. Amplifying trough over Central Canada allows a
shortwave to dive south into the Central US midweek, with surface
low pressure deepening as it tracks east and offshore. With limited
cold air preceding, would lean toward a more wet than white
forecast, though lots of solutions remain at this point. Continued
to cap PoPs at chance (50%) for now given the inherent uncertainty
and disagreement amongst global guidance, otherwise, largely stayed
close to the national blend.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Weak high pressure builds in late today through early Sunday
before moving offshore.

Conditions vary from VFR to IFR but overall are mostly MVFR.

Snow exiting the area southeast of Long Island but to the north
and west, more snow showers are developing. These snow showers
will be scattered in coverage and move across the region this
afternoon, bringing potentially MVFR to possibly IFR conditions.
For this evening through rest of TAF period, dry conditions and
VFR conditions expected.

Winds will be northerly near 10 kt, increasing to 15-20 kt for
latter half of this afternoon into early evening with gusts near
25 kt. Some peak gusts up to 30 kt will be possible. Winds will
become more NW. Winds this evening will start decreasing back
down to 10-15 kt range with gusts more in the 20-25 kt range.
Winds further diminish overnight to near 10 kt with gusts
diminishing as well. Winds early Sunday increase to 10-15 kt
with gusts developing around 25-30 kt range towards late Sunday
morning into the afternoon.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Timing of snow showers this afternoon could vary 1-2 hours from
indicated in TAF. Brief IFR possible.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

Sunday afternoon: VFR. SW winds gusting to 25-30 kt.

Sunday night: VFR. W winds gusting 15-20 kt mainly along coast.
Gusts diminish away from coast.

Monday through Wednesday: VFR.

Thursday: MVFR possible with a chance of rain showers.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Ocean gusts and seas increase to SCA levels this evening as a tight
pressure gradient develops behind departing low pressure and
building high pressure to the west. SCA is in place into this
evening into early tonight over ocean waters for strong gusts.
Winds and seas fall below advisory levels Sunday morning before
increasing once again later Sunday into Sunday night as winds
and seas increase with an increasing gradient as low pressure
approaches to the north. SCA conditions likely develop across
all the waters around midday Sunday. Many areas may approach
gale strength gusts, but have kept a SCA for now due to low
confidence of reaching gales. These winds, along with waves of 5
to 9 feet will maintain themselves Sunday night until Monday
morning.

Conditions improve into early Monday, and sub SCA conditions are
then expected on all waters through Wednesday.

Seas may begin to exceed 5 ft on the ocean Wednesday night or
Thursday with increasing SE swells.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No issues expected through the upcoming week.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM Sunday to 4 AM EST Monday for
     ANZ331-332-335-338-340-345-355.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for ANZ350-
     353-355.
     Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM Sunday to 7 AM EST Monday for
     ANZ350-353.

&&

SYNOPSIS...BR/DR
NEAR TERM...BR
SHORT TERM...BR
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...BR/DR
HYDROLOGY...BR/DR

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service New York NY
308 AM EST Sat Feb 17 2024

NJZ002-004-006-103>108-NYZ071>075-078>081-176>179-181100-
Western Passaic-Eastern Passaic-Hudson-Western Bergen-Eastern Bergen-
Western Essex-Eastern Essex-Western Union-Eastern Union-
Southern Westchester-New York (Manhattan)-Bronx-
Richmond (Staten Island)-Kings (Brooklyn)-Northwest Suffolk-
Northeast Suffolk-Southwest Suffolk-Southeast Suffolk-
Northern Queens-Northern Nassau-Southern Queens-Southern Nassau-
308 AM EST Sat Feb 17 2024

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeastern New Jersey and
southeastern New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Weather Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time that would meet NWS
warning criteria.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed.

&&

This Hazardous Weather Outlook provides a summary of potential
widespread hazardous weather events that may reach NWS warning
criteria. Most long fused NWS watches, warnings, and advisories in
effect are highlighted.

Please refer to the latest NWS forecasts for weather not meeting NWS
warning criteria.

CTZ005>012-NYZ067>070-181100-
Northern Fairfield-Northern New Haven-Northern Middlesex-
Northern New London-Southern Fairfield-Southern New Haven-
Southern Middlesex-Southern New London-Orange-Putnam-Rockland-
Northern Westchester-
308 AM EST Sat Feb 17 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southern Connecticut and
southeastern New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Light snow through this morning may accumulate 1 to 2 inches. This
could cause slippery conditions this morning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time that would meet NWS
warning criteria.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed.

&&

This Hazardous Weather Outlook provides a summary of potential
widespread hazardous weather events that may reach NWS warning
criteria. Most long fused NWS watches, warnings, and advisories in
effect are highlighted.

Please refer to the latest NWS forecasts for weather not meeting NWS
warning criteria.

ANZ331-332-335-338-340-345-350-353-355-181100-
Long Island Sound East of New Haven CT/Port Jefferson NY to the
Mouth of the Connecticut River-
Long Island Sound East of the Mouth of the Connecticut River-
Long Island Sound West of New Haven CT/Port Jefferson NY-
New York Harbor-Peconic and Gardiners Bays-
South Shore Bays from Jones Inlet through Shinnecock Bay-
Moriches Inlet NY to Montauk Point NY out 20 nm-
Fire Island Inlet NY to Moriches Inlet NY out 20 nm-
Sandy Hook NJ to Fire Island Inlet NY out 20 nm-
308 AM EST Sat Feb 17 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Atlantic coastal waters,
New York Harbor, Long Island Sound, and the Long Island bays.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time that would meet NWS
warning criteria.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

This Hazardous Weather Outlook provides a summary of potential
widespread hazardous weather events that may reach NWS warning
criteria. Most long fused NWS watches, warnings, and advisories in
effect are highlighted.

Please refer to the latest NWS forecasts for weather not meeting NWS
warning criteria.

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service New York NY
136 PM EST Sat Feb 17 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0100 PM     Snow             Newark Airport          40.68N 74.17W
02/17/2024  M4.2 inch        Union              NJ   Official NWS Obs

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service New York NY
138 PM EST Sat Feb 17 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0730 AM     Snow             Hoboken                 40.74N 74.03W
02/17/2024  M3.1 inch        Hudson             NJ   Trained Spotter

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service New York NY
224 PM EST Sat Feb 17 2024

CTZ005>012-NYZ068-172015-
Southern Middlesex CT-Northern Fairfield CT-Southern New London CT-
Southern Fairfield CT-Northern New London CT-Northern New Haven CT-
Northern Middlesex CT-Southern New Haven CT-Putnam NY-
224 PM EST Sat Feb 17 2024

...MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS...

HAZARDS...An area of moderate to heavy snow showers accompanied by
winds of up to 30 MPH which can rapidly reduce visibility to less
than one mile.

LOCATION AND MOVEMENT...At 221 PM EST, an area of snow showers was
along a line extending from near East Hampton to near Newtown and
moving southeast at 25 MPH. The snow showers will move across parts
of Putnam NY and Southern CT before 315 PM this afternoon.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
Bridgeport, New Haven, Waterbury, Danbury, Meriden, Milford,
Middletown, Wallingford, Shelton, Naugatuck, New London, Guilford,
Southbury, Wolcott, and Colchester.

SAFETY INFO...
Conditions can deteriorate rapidly in winter weather situations. Be
prepared for snow or ice covered roads. Slow down and allow extra
time to reach your destination.

&&

LAT...LON 4150 7344 4151 7339 4147 7332 4151 7332
      4151 7316 4156 7316 4164 7298 4164 7294
      4156 7295 4154 7285 4163 7271 4164 7256
      4137 7200 4123 7275 4123 7289 4125 7292
      4115 7314 4150 7382 4153 7353 4167 7352
TIME...MOT...LOC 1921Z 301DEG 21KT 4154 7254 4138 7334

JM

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service New York NY
236 PM EST Sat Feb 17 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0228 PM     Snow             Kenilworth              40.68N 74.29W
02/17/2024  M4.4 inch        Union              NJ   Broadcast Media

&&

DSR

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service New York NY
310 PM EST Sat Feb 17 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0100 PM     Snow             Guilford                41.28N 72.68W
02/17/2024  M2.4 inch        New Haven          CT   CO-OP Observer

&&