Red Flag Warning 5, NWS New York, NY

371 
WWUS81 KOKX 080833
RFWOKX

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service New York NY
333 AM EST Fri Nov 8 2024


NYZ211>213-082300-
/O.CON.KOKX.FW.W.0005.241108T1300Z-241108T2300Z/
Lower Hudson Valley-New York City-Long Island-
333 AM EST Fri Nov 8 2024

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO
6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY, NYC, AND LONG
ISLAND...

* AFFECTED AREA...Lower Hudson Valley, New York City and Long 
  Island.

* TIMING...From 8 AM this morning to 6 PM EST this evening.

* WINDS...West 5 to 15 mph with gusts up to 30 mph.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...As low as 29 percent.

* TEMPERATURES...Up to 68.

* LIGHTNING...None.

* IMPACTS...Any fire that develops will catch and spread 
  quickly. Outdoor burning is not recommended.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are expected or occurring. A combination of strong winds, low
relative humidity, and dry fuels will create a significantly
elevated fire growth potential.

&&

$$

CTZ005>012-082300-
/O.CON.KOKX.FW.W.0005.241108T1300Z-241108T2300Z/
Northern Fairfield-Northern New Haven-Northern Middlesex-
Northern New London-Southern Fairfield-Southern New Haven-
Southern Middlesex-Southern New London-
333 AM EST Fri Nov 8 2024

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO
6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT...

* AFFECTED AREA...Northern Fairfield, Northern New Haven, 
  Northern Middlesex, Northern New London, Southern Fairfield, 
  Southern New Haven, Southern Middlesex and Southern New London.

* TIMING...From 8 AM this morning to 6 PM EST this evening.

* WINDS...West 5 to 15 mph with gusts up to 30 mph.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...As low as 30 percent.

* TEMPERATURES...Up to 66.

* LIGHTNING...None.

* IMPACTS...Any fire that develops will catch and spread 
  quickly. Outdoor burning is not recommended.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are expected or occurring. A combination of strong winds, low
relative humidity, and dry fuels will create a significantly
elevated fire growth potential.

&&

$$

NJZ002-004-006-103>108-082300-
/O.CON.KOKX.FW.W.0005.241108T1300Z-241108T2300Z/
Western Passaic-Eastern Passaic-Hudson-Western Bergen-
Eastern Bergen-Western Essex-Eastern Essex-Western Union-
Eastern Union-
333 AM EST Fri Nov 8 2024

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO
6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY...

* AFFECTED AREA...Western Passaic, Eastern Passaic, Hudson, 
  Western Bergen, Eastern Bergen, Western Essex, Eastern Essex, 
  Western Union and Eastern Union.

* TIMING...From 8 AM this morning to 6 PM EST this evening.

* WINDS...West 5 to 15 mph with gusts up to 30 mph.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...As low as 26 percent.

* TEMPERATURES...Up to 69.

* LIGHTNING...None.

* IMPACTS...Any fire that develops will catch and spread 
  quickly. Outdoor burning is not recommended.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are expected or occurring. A combination of strong winds, low
relative humidity, and dry fuels will create a significantly
elevated fire growth potential.

&&

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit
http://weather.gov/nyc

292 
WWUS81 KOKX 081453
RFWOKX

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service New York NY
953 AM EST Fri Nov 8 2024


NYZ211>213-082300-
/O.CON.KOKX.FW.W.0005.000000T0000Z-241108T2300Z/
Lower Hudson Valley-New York City-Long Island-
953 AM EST Fri Nov 8 2024

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING
FOR THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY, NEW YORK CITY, AND LONG ISLAND...

* AFFECTED AREA...Lower Hudson Valley, New York City and Long 
  Island.

* TIMING...Until 6 PM EST this evening.

* WINDS...West 10 to 20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...As low as 28 percent.

* TEMPERATURES...Up to 67.

* LIGHTNING...None.

* IMPACTS...Any fire that develops will catch and spread 
  quickly. Outdoor burning is not recommended.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are expected or occurring. A combination of strong winds, low
relative humidity, and dry fuels will create a significantly
elevated fire growth potential.

&&

$$

CTZ005>012-082300-
/O.CON.KOKX.FW.W.0005.000000T0000Z-241108T2300Z/
Northern Fairfield-Northern New Haven-Northern Middlesex-
Northern New London-Southern Fairfield-Southern New Haven-
Southern Middlesex-Southern New London-
953 AM EST Fri Nov 8 2024

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING
FOR SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT...

* AFFECTED AREA...Northern Fairfield, Northern New Haven, 
  Northern Middlesex, Northern New London, Southern Fairfield, 
  Southern New Haven, Southern Middlesex and Southern New London.

* TIMING...Until 6 PM EST this evening.

* WINDS...West 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...As low as 28 percent.

* TEMPERATURES...Up to 66.

* LIGHTNING...None.

* IMPACTS...Any fire that develops will catch and spread 
  quickly. Outdoor burning is not recommended.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are expected or occurring. A combination of strong winds, low
relative humidity, and dry fuels will create a significantly
elevated fire growth potential.

&&

$$

NJZ002-004-006-103>108-082300-
/O.CON.KOKX.FW.W.0005.000000T0000Z-241108T2300Z/
Western Passaic-Eastern Passaic-Hudson-Western Bergen-
Eastern Bergen-Western Essex-Eastern Essex-Western Union-
Eastern Union-
953 AM EST Fri Nov 8 2024

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING
FOR NORTHEASTERN NEW JERSEY...

* AFFECTED AREA...Western Passaic, Eastern Passaic, Hudson, 
  Western Bergen, Eastern Bergen, Western Essex, Eastern Essex, 
  Western Union and Eastern Union.

* TIMING...Until 6 PM EST this evening.

* WINDS...West 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 30 mph.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...As low as 26 percent.

* TEMPERATURES...Up to 69.

* LIGHTNING...None.

* IMPACTS...Any fire that develops will catch and spread 
  quickly. Outdoor burning is not recommended.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are expected or occurring. A combination of strong winds, low
relative humidity, and dry fuels will create a significantly
elevated fire growth potential.

&&

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit
http://weather.gov/nyc

520 
WWUS81 KOKX 082041
RFWOKX

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service New York NY
341 PM EST Fri Nov 8 2024

NYZ211>213-092300-
/O.EXT.KOKX.FW.W.0005.000000T0000Z-241109T2300Z/
Lower Hudson Valley-New York City-Long Island-
341 PM EST Fri Nov 8 2024

...RED FLAG WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST SATURDAY FOR
LOWER HUDSON VALLEY, NEW YORK CITY, AND LONG ISLAND...

* AFFECTED AREA...Lower Hudson Valley, New York City and Long 
  Island.

* TIMING...Until 6 PM EST Saturday.

* WINDS...Northwest 15 to 20 mph with gusts up to 35 mph.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...As low as 25 percent during the daylight 
  hours.

* TEMPERATURES...Mid 30s to Lower 40s tonight, Lower to mid 50s 
  on Saturday.

* LIGHTNING...None.

* IMPACTS...Any fire that develops will catch and spread 
  quickly. Outdoor burning is not recommended.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are expected or occurring. A combination of strong winds, low
relative humidity, and dry fuels will create a significantly
elevated fire growth potential.

&&

$$

CTZ005>012-092300-
/O.EXT.KOKX.FW.W.0005.000000T0000Z-241109T2300Z/
Northern Fairfield-Northern New Haven-Northern Middlesex-
Northern New London-Southern Fairfield-Southern New Haven-
Southern Middlesex-Southern New London-
341 PM EST Fri Nov 8 2024

...RED FLAG WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST SATURDAY FOR
SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT....

* AFFECTED AREA...Northern Fairfield, Northern New Haven, 
  Northern Middlesex, Northern New London, Southern Fairfield, 
  Southern New Haven, Southern Middlesex and Southern New London.

* TIMING...Until 6 PM EST Saturday.

* WINDS...Northwest 15 to 20 mph with gusts up to 35 mph.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...As low as 25 percent during the daylight 
  hours.

* TEMPERATURES...30s tonight, Lower 50s on Saturday.

* LIGHTNING...None.

* IMPACTS...Any fire that develops will catch and spread 
  quickly. Outdoor burning is not recommended.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are expected or occurring. A combination of strong winds, low
relative humidity, and dry fuels will create a significantly
elevated fire growth potential.

&&

$$

NJZ002-004-006-103>108-092300-
/O.EXT.KOKX.FW.W.0005.000000T0000Z-241109T2300Z/
Western Passaic-Eastern Passaic-Hudson-Western Bergen-
Eastern Bergen-Western Essex-Eastern Essex-Western Union-
Eastern Union-
341 PM EST Fri Nov 8 2024

...RED FLAG WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST SATURDAY FOR 
NORTHEASTERN NEW JERSEY...

* AFFECTED AREA...Western Passaic, Eastern Passaic, Hudson, 
  Western Bergen, Eastern Bergen, Western Essex, Eastern Essex, 
  Western Union and Eastern Union.

* TIMING...Until 6 PM EST Saturday.

* WINDS...Northwest 15 to 20 mph with gusts up to 35 mph.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...As low as 20 percent during the daylight 
  hours.

* TEMPERATURES...Lower 40s tonight, Mid 50s on Saturday.

* LIGHTNING...None.

* IMPACTS...Any fire that develops will catch and spread 
  quickly. Outdoor burning is not recommended.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are expected or occurring. A combination of strong winds, low
relative humidity, and dry fuels will create a significantly
elevated fire growth potential.

&&

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit
http://weather.gov/nyc

710 
WWUS81 KOKX 090833
RFWOKX

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service New York NY
333 AM EST Sat Nov 9 2024


NYZ211>213-092300-
/O.CON.KOKX.FW.W.0005.000000T0000Z-241109T2300Z/
Lower Hudson Valley-New York City-Long Island-
333 AM EST Sat Nov 9 2024

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING
FOR LOWER HUDSON VALLEY, NEW YORK CITY, AND LONG ISLAND...

* AFFECTED AREA...Lower Hudson Valley, New York City and Long 
  Island.

* TIMING...Until 6 PM EST this evening.

* WINDS...Northwest 10 to 20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...As low as 24 percent.

* TEMPERATURES...Up to 55.

* LIGHTNING...None.

* IMPACTS...Any fire that develops will catch and spread 
  quickly. Outdoor burning is not recommended.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are expected or occurring. A combination of strong winds, low
relative humidity, and dry fuels will create a significantly
elevated fire growth potential.

&&

$$

CTZ005>012-092300-
/O.CON.KOKX.FW.W.0005.000000T0000Z-241109T2300Z/
Northern Fairfield-Northern New Haven-Northern Middlesex-
Northern New London-Southern Fairfield-Southern New Haven-
Southern Middlesex-Southern New London-
333 AM EST Sat Nov 9 2024

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING
FOR SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT....

* AFFECTED AREA...Northern Fairfield, Northern New Haven, 
  Northern Middlesex, Northern New London, Southern Fairfield, 
  Southern New Haven, Southern Middlesex and Southern New London.

* TIMING...Until 6 PM EST this evening.

* WINDS...Northwest 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 30 mph.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...As low as 26 percent.

* TEMPERATURES...Up to 53.

* LIGHTNING...None.

* IMPACTS...Any fire that develops will catch and spread 
  quickly. Outdoor burning is not recommended.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are expected or occurring. A combination of strong winds, low
relative humidity, and dry fuels will create a significantly
elevated fire growth potential.

&&

$$

NJZ002-004-006-103>108-092300-
/O.CON.KOKX.FW.W.0005.000000T0000Z-241109T2300Z/
Western Passaic-Eastern Passaic-Hudson-Western Bergen-
Eastern Bergen-Western Essex-Eastern Essex-Western Union-
Eastern Union-
333 AM EST Sat Nov 9 2024

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING
FOR NORTHEASTERN NEW JERSEY...

* AFFECTED AREA...Western Passaic, Eastern Passaic, Hudson, 
  Western Bergen, Eastern Bergen, Western Essex, Eastern Essex, 
  Western Union and Eastern Union.

* TIMING...Until 6 PM EST this evening.

* WINDS...Northwest 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 30 mph.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...As low as 21 percent.

* TEMPERATURES...Up to 56.

* LIGHTNING...None.

* IMPACTS...Any fire that develops will catch and spread 
  quickly. Outdoor burning is not recommended.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are expected or occurring. A combination of strong winds, low
relative humidity, and dry fuels will create a significantly
elevated fire growth potential.

&&

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit
http://weather.gov/nyc

110 
WWUS81 KOKX 092053
RFWOKX

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service New York NY
353 PM EST Sat Nov 9 2024


CTZ005>012-101100-
/O.NEW.KOKX.FW.W.0006.241110T1400Z-241110T2300Z/
/O.CON.KOKX.FW.W.0005.000000T0000Z-241109T2300Z/
Northern Fairfield-Northern New Haven-Northern Middlesex-
Northern New London-Southern Fairfield-Southern New Haven-
Southern Middlesex-Southern New London-
353 PM EST Sat Nov 9 2024

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING
FOR SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT....

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM TO 6 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT...

* AFFECTED AREA...Northern Fairfield, Northern New Haven, 
  Northern Middlesex, Northern New London, Southern Fairfield, 
  Southern New Haven, Southern Middlesex and Southern New London.

* TIMING...For the first Red Flag Warning, until 6 PM EST this 
  evening. For the second Red Flag Warning, from 9 AM to 6 PM 
  EST Sunday.

* WINDS...Northwest 10 to 15 mph the rest of today then southwest
  10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph by Sunday afternoon.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...As low as 25 percent today and 30 to 40
  percent on Sunday.

* TEMPERATURES...In the low 50s the rest of today and the upper 
  50s on Sunday.

* LIGHTNING...None.

* IMPACTS...Any fire that develops will catch and spread quickly.
  Outdoor burning is not recommended.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are expected or occurring. A combination of strong winds, low
relative humidity, and dry fuels will create a significantly
elevated fire growth potential.

&&

$$

NYZ211>213-092300-
/O.CON.KOKX.FW.W.0005.000000T0000Z-241109T2300Z/
Lower Hudson Valley-New York City-Long Island-
353 PM EST Sat Nov 9 2024

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING
FOR LOWER HUDSON VALLEY, NEW YORK CITY, AND LONG ISLAND...

* AFFECTED AREA...Lower Hudson Valley, New York City and Long 
  Island.

* TIMING...Until 6 PM EST this evening.

* WINDS...Northwest 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 20 mph.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...As low as 25 percent.

* TEMPERATURES...In the 50s.

* LIGHTNING...None.

* IMPACTS...Any fire that develops will catch and spread 
  quickly. Outdoor burning is not recommended.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are expected or occurring. A combination of strong winds, low
relative humidity, and dry fuels will create a significantly
elevated fire growth potential.

&&

$$

NJZ002-004-006-103>108-092300-
/O.CON.KOKX.FW.W.0005.000000T0000Z-241109T2300Z/
Western Passaic-Eastern Passaic-Hudson-Western Bergen-
Eastern Bergen-Western Essex-Eastern Essex-Western Union-
Eastern Union-
353 PM EST Sat Nov 9 2024

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING
FOR NORTHEASTERN NEW JERSEY...

* AFFECTED AREA...Western Passaic, Eastern Passaic, Hudson, 
  Western Bergen, Eastern Bergen, Western Essex, Eastern Essex, 
  Western Union and Eastern Union.

* TIMING...Until 6 PM EST this evening.

* WINDS...Northwest 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 20 mph.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...As low as 20 percent.

* TEMPERATURES...In the 50s.

* LIGHTNING...None.

* IMPACTS...Any fire that develops will catch and spread 
  quickly. Outdoor burning is not recommended.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are expected or occurring. A combination of strong winds, low
relative humidity, and dry fuels will create a significantly
elevated fire growth potential.

&&

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit
http://weather.gov/nyc

526 
WWUS81 KOKX 092324
RFWOKX

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service New York NY
624 PM EST Sat Nov 9 2024

CTZ005>012-100730-
/O.EXP.KOKX.FW.W.0005.000000T0000Z-241109T2300Z/
/O.CON.KOKX.FW.W.0006.241110T1400Z-241110T2300Z/
Northern Fairfield-Northern New Haven-Northern Middlesex-
Northern New London-Southern Fairfield-Southern New Haven-
Southern Middlesex-Southern New London-
624 PM EST Sat Nov 9 2024

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM TO 6 PM EST
SUNDAY FOR SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT....

* AFFECTED AREA...Fairfield, New Haven, Middlesex, and New London
  counties. 

* TIMING...From 9 AM to 6 PM EST Sunday.

* WINDS...Southwest 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph by afternoon.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...As low as 30 to 40 percent.

* TEMPERATURES...Upper 50s. 

* LIGHTNING...None.

* IMPACTS...Rapid fire spread if ignition occurs. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are expected or occurring. A combination of strong winds, low
relative humidity, and dry fuels will create a significantly
elevated fire growth potential.

&&

$$

NJZ002-004-006-103>108-NYZ211>213-100030-
/O.EXP.KOKX.FW.W.0005.000000T0000Z-241109T2300Z/
Western Passaic-Eastern Passaic-Hudson-Western Bergen-
Eastern Bergen-Western Essex-Eastern Essex-Western Union-
Eastern Union-Lower Hudson Valley-New York City-Long Island-
624 PM EST Sat Nov 9 2024

...RED FLAG WARNING HAS EXPIRED FOR NORTHEASTERN NEW JERSEY...

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit
http://weather.gov/nyc

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1229 PM EST Thu Nov 7 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak sfc trough will move into the area this morning, followed
by a cold frontal passage early this afternoon. High pressure
will the briefly nose in from the west in its wake later today,
then weaken tonight with the approach of another cold front
which should move through on Friday. Strong Canadian high
pressure will build in its wake Friday night into Saturday, then
move offshore on Sunday, with a frontal system passing through
Sunday night into Monday. High pressure will then build in
through the middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
For this midday update, minor changes were made to lower high
temperatures for the day a degree or two based on current
observations and trends. Otherwise, the forecast remains on
track.

A cold front continues to push through the area bringing NW
winds with gusts up to 20-25 mph. A few clouds in interior
areas will continue to scatter out. The rest of the forecast
remains on track.

Temps still look to be unseasonably warm today given sunshine,
deep mixing and downslope flow, though not quite as warm as
yesterday except across coastal CT and Long Island given the
wind shift from SW off the water yesterday. High temps should
reach the upper 70s in NE NJ, mid 70s most elsewhere, and the
lower 70s well inland, a couple degrees above the warmest MOS
guidance as was the case yesterday. These temps will be a couple
of degrees shy of record highs at Newark, Central Park, and
LaGuardia.

Most of the cold air advection should take place this evening
before NW flow backs W overnight. With CAA, clear skies and
diminishing winds there will be some radiational cooling as
well. Low temps will range from the upper 30s well inland to
near 50 in NYC.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
One last mild day expected on Fri, with highs mostly 65-70, and
a gusty W flow before another dry cold front moves through from
the north Fri evening, and Canadian high pressure builds in for
the weekend. Temps Fri night should bottom out from the mid 30s
to mid 40s, and daytime temps on Sat will be noticeably cooler,
with highs only in the 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Key Points:

* Above average temperatures expected late Sunday and Monday,
  then back to normal for the middle of next week.

* Widespread light rain likely late Sunday into Monday as a
  frontal system moves through.

Surface high pressure with upper level ridging will be in place
over the area on Saturday which will gradually shift offshore
into Sunday. A potent shortwave trough moves across the Upper
Midwest and into the Great Lakes region on Sunday which will
allow for a surface frontal system to impact the area late
Sunday and through much of the day on Monday. Widespread light
rainfall is expected Sunday late afternoon through the first
half of Monday. Additionally, a persistent SW flow will allow
temperatures to be above average both Sunday and particularly
Monday with highs Monday in the middle to upper 60s.

The cold front pushes through Monday night with a shifting NW
flow eventually drying out the airmass and ushering in more
seasonable air. The general thinking is that high pressure
gradually reestablishes itself by midweek with large-scale upper
level ridging. Another frontal system may approach the area by
late in the week, but timing and placement differences are too
large among global models to have any certainty in the forecast
at this range.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
High pressure builds to the west of the area through Friday
morning. A dry cold front, from the north, passes through the
region Friday afternoon.

VFR.

Winds NW around 15 kt, gusts 20-25 kt with occasional higher
gusts up to 28 kt. Gusts ending early this evening with winds
diminishing, and direction becomes more variable to W tonight,
W winds increase to around 15 kt, G25-30 kt.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB)TAF Uncertainty...

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

Friday afternoon: VFR. W winds around 15 kt, G25-30 kt,
becoming 10-15 kt, G20-25 kt at night.

Saturday: VFR.

Sunday: VFR into the afternoon, then becoming MVFR with a chance
of rain showers. MVFR or lower in rain showers at night.

Monday: MVFR becoming VFR. Chance of rain showers in the
morning, ending in the afternoon. SW-W winds G15-20 kt,
becoming NW becoming NW G20-25kt.

Tuesday: VFR, NW G15-20 kt.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
No advy for the near term. That said, a few gusts just shy of
25 kt are likely on the near shore waters this afternoon after a
cold frontal passage.

SCA cond should take place Fri as W flow increases in the
afternoon ahead of another cold frontal passage and shifts NW
at night, with gusts up to 25 kt on most if not all waters, and
ocean seas building to 5-6 ft mainly out east.

Strengthening SW flow Sunday night into Mon may produce SCA
conditions on the ocean waters, with seas 5-7 feet and gusts
near 25 kt.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
For today, min RH will be lower than originally anticipated,
30-35% inland and 35-40% closer to the coast. This plus NW
winds gusting to 20-25 mph and very dry fine fuels will once
again lead to elevated fire growth potential. SPS was issued
for S CT.

For Friday, conditions remain similar if not worse, with min RH
25-35% and W winds gusting up to 25 mph. A Red Flag Warning may
be needed.

For Saturday, min RH 20-30% and NW winds gusting to 20 mph
expected.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns through mid next week.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...BG/MW
NEAR TERM...BG/BR
SHORT TERM...BG
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...BG/MW
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...BG/MW
CLIMATE...

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service New York NY
458 AM EST Thu Nov 7 2024

ANZ331-332-335-338-340-345-350-353-355-CTZ005>012-NJZ002-004-006-
103>108-NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179-081100-
Long Island Sound East of New Haven CT/Port Jefferson NY to the
Mouth of the Connecticut River-
Long Island Sound East of the Mouth of the Connecticut River-
Long Island Sound West of New Haven CT/Port Jefferson NY-
New York Harbor-Peconic and Gardiners Bays-
South Shore Bays from Jones Inlet through Shinnecock Bay-
Moriches Inlet NY to Montauk Point NY out 20 nm-
Fire Island Inlet NY to Moriches Inlet NY out 20 nm-
Sandy Hook NJ to Fire Island Inlet NY out 20 nm-Northern Fairfield-
Northern New Haven-Northern Middlesex-Northern New London-
Southern Fairfield-Southern New Haven-Southern Middlesex-
Southern New London-Western Passaic-Eastern Passaic-Hudson-
Western Bergen-Eastern Bergen-Western Essex-Eastern Essex-
Western Union-Eastern Union-Orange-Putnam-Rockland-
Northern Westchester-Southern Westchester-New York (Manhattan)-Bronx-
Richmond (Staten Island)-Kings (Brooklyn)-Northwest Suffolk-
Northeast Suffolk-Southwest Suffolk-Southeast Suffolk-
Northern Queens-Northern Nassau-Southern Queens-Southern Nassau-
458 AM EST Thu Nov 7 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Atlantic coastal waters,
southern Connecticut, northeast New Jersey and southeast New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time that would meet NWS
warning criteria.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

This Hazardous Weather Outlook provides a summary of potential
widespread hazardous weather events that may reach NWS warning
criteria. Most long fused NWS watches, warnings, and advisories in
effect are highlighted.

Please refer to the latest NWS forecasts for weather not meeting NWS
warning criteria.