Gale Warning 13, NWS New York, NY

440 
WHUS71 KOKX 201830
MWWOKX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service New York NY
230 PM EDT Wed Mar 20 2024

ANZ331-332-335-340-210600-
/O.UPG.KOKX.SC.Y.0035.240320T2200Z-240321T2100Z/
/O.EXB.KOKX.GL.W.0013.240320T2200Z-240321T1400Z/
Long Island Sound East of New Haven CT/Port Jefferson NY to the
Mouth of the Connecticut River-
Long Island Sound East of the Mouth of the Connecticut River-
Long Island Sound West of New Haven CT/Port Jefferson NY-
Peconic and Gardiners Bays-
230 PM EDT Wed Mar 20 2024

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EDT
THURSDAY...

* WHAT...West winds 20 to 30 kt with gusts up to 35 kt and seas 
  3 to 5 feet expected.

* WHERE...Long Island Sound, and Peconic and Gardiners Bays.

* WHEN...From 6 PM this evening to 10 AM EDT Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous seas which could
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ350-353-355-210600-
/O.CON.KOKX.SC.Y.0034.000000T0000Z-240320T2200Z/
/O.EXT.KOKX.GL.W.0013.240320T2200Z-240321T1600Z/
Moriches Inlet NY to Montauk Point NY out 20 nm-
Fire Island Inlet NY to Moriches Inlet NY out 20 nm-
Sandy Hook NJ to Fire Island Inlet NY out 20 nm-
230 PM EDT Wed Mar 20 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...
...GALE WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EDT
THURSDAY...

* WHAT...For the Small Craft Advisory, southwest winds 10 to 20 
  kt with gusts up to 25 kt and seas 3 to 5 feet. For the Gale 
  Warning, west winds 20 to 30 kt with gusts up to 35 kt and 
  seas 4 to 7 feet expected.

* WHERE...Sandy Hook NJ to Montauk Point NY out 20 nm.

* WHEN...For the Small Craft Advisory, until 6 PM EDT this 
  evening. For the Gale Warning, from 6 PM this evening to noon 
  EDT Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous seas which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ345-210600-
/O.EXT.KOKX.GL.W.0013.240320T2200Z-240321T1400Z/
South Shore Bays from Jones Inlet through Shinnecock Bay-
230 PM EDT Wed Mar 20 2024

...GALE WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EDT
THURSDAY...

* WHAT...West winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt.

* WHERE...South Shore Bays from Jones Inlet through Shinnecock 
  Bay.

* WHEN...From 6 PM this evening to 10 AM EDT Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous waves which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ338-210600-
/O.CON.KOKX.GL.W.0013.240320T2200Z-240321T1000Z/
New York Harbor-
230 PM EDT Wed Mar 20 2024

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM
EDT THURSDAY...

* WHAT...West winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt and waves 
  1 to 3 feet expected.

* WHERE...New York Harbor, including Raritan Bay and Sandy Hook
  Bay.

* WHEN...From 6 PM this evening to 6 AM EDT Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous waves which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

For more details, see the Coastal Waters Forecast from 
National Weather Service New York NY, or visit
https://www.weather.gov/okx/marine

569 
WHUS71 KOKX 202153
MWWOKX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service New York NY
553 PM EDT Wed Mar 20 2024

ANZ350-353-355-211000-
/O.EXP.KOKX.SC.Y.0034.000000T0000Z-240320T2200Z/
/O.CON.KOKX.GL.W.0013.240320T2200Z-240321T1600Z/
Moriches Inlet NY to Montauk Point NY out 20 nm-
Fire Island Inlet NY to Moriches Inlet NY out 20 nm-
Sandy Hook NJ to Fire Island Inlet NY out 20 nm-
553 PM EDT Wed Mar 20 2024

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EDT THURSDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...West winds 20 to 30 kt with gusts up to 40 kt and seas 
  5 to 8 feet expected.

* WHERE...Sandy Hook NJ to Montauk Point NY out 20 nm.

* WHEN...Until noon EDT Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous seas which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ338-211000-
/O.CON.KOKX.GL.W.0013.240320T2200Z-240321T1000Z/
New York Harbor-
553 PM EDT Wed Mar 20 2024

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Northwest winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt and 
  waves 1 to 3 feet expected.

* WHERE...New York Harbor, including Raritan Bay and Sandy Hook 
  Bay.

* WHEN...Until 6 AM EDT Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous waves which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ331-332-335-340-345-211000-
/O.CON.KOKX.GL.W.0013.240320T2200Z-240321T1400Z/
Long Island Sound East of New Haven CT/Port Jefferson NY to the
Mouth of the Connecticut River-
Long Island Sound East of the Mouth of the Connecticut River-
Long Island Sound West of New Haven CT/Port Jefferson NY-
Peconic and Gardiners Bays-
South Shore Bays from Jones Inlet through Shinnecock Bay-
553 PM EDT Wed Mar 20 2024

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EDT THURSDAY...

* WHAT...West winds 20 to 30 kt with gusts up to 35 kt and seas 
  3 to 5 feet expected.

* WHERE...Long Island Sound, Peconic and Gardiners Bays, and 
  South Shore Bays from Jones Inlet through Shinnecock Bay.

* WHEN...Until 10 AM EDT Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous seas which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

For more details, see the Coastal Waters Forecast from 
National Weather Service New York NY, or visit
https://www.weather.gov/okx/marine

834 
WHUS71 KOKX 210217
MWWOKX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service New York NY
1017 PM EDT Wed Mar 20 2024

ANZ338-210900-
/O.CON.KOKX.GL.W.0013.000000T0000Z-240321T1000Z/
New York Harbor-
1017 PM EDT Wed Mar 20 2024

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Northwest winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt.

* WHERE...New York Harbor, including Raritan Bay and Sandy Hook 
  Bay.

* WHEN...Until 6 AM EDT Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous waves which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ331-332-335-340-345-210900-
/O.CON.KOKX.GL.W.0013.000000T0000Z-240321T1400Z/
Long Island Sound East of New Haven CT/Port Jefferson NY to the
Mouth of the Connecticut River-
Long Island Sound East of the Mouth of the Connecticut River-
Long Island Sound West of New Haven CT/Port Jefferson NY-
Peconic and Gardiners Bays-
South Shore Bays from Jones Inlet through Shinnecock Bay-
1017 PM EDT Wed Mar 20 2024

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EDT THURSDAY...

* WHAT...West winds 20 to 30 kt with gusts up to 35 kt and seas 
  3 to 5 feet expected.

* WHERE...Long Island Sound, Peconic and Gardiners Bays, and 
  South Shore Bays from Jones Inlet through Shinnecock Bay.

* WHEN...Until 10 AM EDT Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous seas which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ350-353-355-210900-
/O.CON.KOKX.GL.W.0013.000000T0000Z-240321T1600Z/
Moriches Inlet NY to Montauk Point NY out 20 nm-
Fire Island Inlet NY to Moriches Inlet NY out 20 nm-
Sandy Hook NJ to Fire Island Inlet NY out 20 nm-
1017 PM EDT Wed Mar 20 2024

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EDT THURSDAY...

* WHAT...West winds 20 to 30 kt with gusts up to 40 kt and seas 
  5 to 8 feet expected.

* WHERE...Sandy Hook NJ to Montauk Point NY out 20 nm.

* WHEN...Until noon EDT Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous seas which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

For more details, see the Coastal Waters Forecast from 
National Weather Service New York NY, or visit
https://www.weather.gov/okx/marine

348 
WHUS71 KOKX 210712
MWWOKX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service New York NY
312 AM EDT Thu Mar 21 2024

ANZ338-211000-
/O.CON.KOKX.GL.W.0013.000000T0000Z-240321T1000Z/
New York Harbor-
312 AM EDT Thu Mar 21 2024

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS
MORNING...

* WHAT...Northwest winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt.

* WHERE...New York Harbor, including Raritan Bay and Sandy Hook 
  Bay.

* WHEN...Until 6 AM EDT early this morning.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous waves which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ331-332-335-340-345-211400-
/O.CON.KOKX.GL.W.0013.000000T0000Z-240321T1400Z/
Long Island Sound East of New Haven CT/Port Jefferson NY to the
Mouth of the Connecticut River-
Long Island Sound East of the Mouth of the Connecticut River-
Long Island Sound West of New Haven CT/Port Jefferson NY-
Peconic and Gardiners Bays-
South Shore Bays from Jones Inlet through Shinnecock Bay-
312 AM EDT Thu Mar 21 2024

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING...

* WHAT...West winds 20 to 30 kt with gusts up to 35 kt and seas 3
  to 5 feet on Eastern Long Island Sound.

* WHERE...Long Island Sound, Peconic and Gardiners Bays, and 
  South Shore Bays from Jones Inlet through Shinnecock Bay.

* WHEN...Until 10 AM EDT this morning.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous seas which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ350-353-355-211600-
/O.CON.KOKX.GL.W.0013.000000T0000Z-240321T1600Z/
Moriches Inlet NY to Montauk Point NY out 20 nm-
Fire Island Inlet NY to Moriches Inlet NY out 20 nm-
Sandy Hook NJ to Fire Island Inlet NY out 20 nm-
312 AM EDT Thu Mar 21 2024

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY...

* WHAT...West winds 25 to 30 kt with gusts up to 40 kt and seas 
  5 to 8 feet.

* WHERE...Sandy Hook NJ to Montauk Point NY out 20 nm.

* WHEN...Until noon EDT today.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous seas which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

For more details, see the Coastal Waters Forecast from 
National Weather Service New York NY, or visit
https://www.weather.gov/okx/marine

162 
WHUS71 KOKX 210932
MWWOKX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service New York NY
532 AM EDT Thu Mar 21 2024

ANZ331-332-335-340-345-212200-
/O.CAN.KOKX.GL.W.0013.000000T0000Z-240321T1400Z/
/O.NEW.KOKX.SC.Y.0036.240321T0932Z-240322T0300Z/
Long Island Sound East of New Haven CT/Port Jefferson NY to the
Mouth of the Connecticut River-
Long Island Sound East of the Mouth of the Connecticut River-
Long Island Sound West of New Haven CT/Port Jefferson NY-
Peconic and Gardiners Bays-
South Shore Bays from Jones Inlet through Shinnecock Bay-
532 AM EDT Thu Mar 21 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...West winds 20 to 30 kt. Seas 3 to 5 feet on Eastern Long
  Island Sound.

* WHERE...Long Island Sound, Peconic and Gardiners Bays, and 
  South Shore Bays from Jones Inlet through Shinnecock Bay.

* WHEN...Until 11 PM EDT this evening.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ338-212200-
/O.CAN.KOKX.GL.W.0013.000000T0000Z-240321T1000Z/
/O.NEW.KOKX.SC.Y.0036.240321T0932Z-240322T0300Z/
New York Harbor-
532 AM EDT Thu Mar 21 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...Northwest winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 35 kt.

* WHERE...New York Harbor, including Raritan Bay and Sandy Hook 
  Bay.

* WHEN...Until 11 PM EDT this evening.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ350-353-355-211600-
/O.CON.KOKX.GL.W.0013.000000T0000Z-240321T1600Z/
Moriches Inlet NY to Montauk Point NY out 20 nm-
Fire Island Inlet NY to Moriches Inlet NY out 20 nm-
Sandy Hook NJ to Fire Island Inlet NY out 20 nm-
532 AM EDT Thu Mar 21 2024

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY...

* WHAT...West winds 25 to 30 kt with gusts up to 35 kt and seas 
  5 to 8 feet.

* WHERE...Sandy Hook NJ to Montauk Point NY out 20 nm.

* WHEN...Until noon EDT today.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous seas which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

For more details, see the Coastal Waters Forecast from 
National Weather Service New York NY, or visit
https://www.weather.gov/okx/marine

088 
WHUS71 KOKX 211537
MWWOKX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service New York NY
1137 AM EDT Thu Mar 21 2024

ANZ355-220300-
/O.CAN.KOKX.GL.W.0013.000000T0000Z-240321T1600Z/
/O.EXA.KOKX.SC.Y.0036.000000T0000Z-240322T0300Z/
Sandy Hook NJ to Fire Island Inlet NY out 20 nm-
1137 AM EDT Thu Mar 21 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING...
...GALE WARNING IS CANCELLED...

* WHAT...Northwest winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt and 
  seas 3 to 6 feet.

* WHERE...Sandy Hook NJ to Fire Island Inlet NY out 20 nm.

* WHEN...Until 11 PM EDT this evening.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ350-353-220445-
/O.CAN.KOKX.GL.W.0013.000000T0000Z-240321T1600Z/
/O.EXB.KOKX.SC.Y.0036.000000T0000Z-240322T1000Z/
Moriches Inlet NY to Montauk Point NY out 20 nm-
Fire Island Inlet NY to Moriches Inlet NY out 20 nm-
1137 AM EDT Thu Mar 21 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY...
...GALE WARNING IS CANCELLED...

* WHAT...Northwest winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt and 
  seas 5 to 8 feet.

* WHERE...Fire Island Inlet NY to Montauk Point NY out 20 nm.

* WHEN...Until 6 AM EDT Friday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ331-332-335-338-340-345-220300-
/O.CON.KOKX.SC.Y.0036.000000T0000Z-240322T0300Z/
Long Island Sound East of New Haven CT/Port Jefferson NY to the
Mouth of the Connecticut River-
Long Island Sound East of the Mouth of the Connecticut River-
Long Island Sound West of New Haven CT/Port Jefferson NY-
New York Harbor-Peconic and Gardiners Bays-
South Shore Bays from Jones Inlet through Shinnecock Bay-
1137 AM EDT Thu Mar 21 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...Northwest winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas
  3 to 5 feet on Eastern Long Island Sound.

* WHERE...New York Harbor, Long Island Sound, Peconic and 
  Gardiners Bays, and South Shore Bays from Jones Inlet through 
  Shinnecock Bay.

* WHEN...Until 11 PM EDT this evening.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

For more details, see the Coastal Waters Forecast from 
National Weather Service New York NY, or visit
https://www.weather.gov/okx/marine

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
134 AM EDT Wed Mar 20 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front passes through tonight. This will be followed by a cold
front Wednesday afternoon into evening. High pressure will be in control
Thursday night into Friday. Low pressure to the west and an inverted
trough emanating from low pressure to the south pivot through Saturday.
The low shifts offshore for the second half of the weekend as high
pressure builds Sunday. The high will be in control early next week,
followed by a warm front approaching late Tuesday

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
The forecast is on track this hour with only minor changes. The
area of light precip that was over eastern Long Island has moved
offshore, with a few reports of trace precip associated with it.
The remainder of the area is dry and should remain so through
the overnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
The low center to our north continues to head east, dragging a cold
front across the area late in the day Wednesday into early evening.
Chances of showers begin near noon for western portions with the
last threat over the eastern zones by around 9 PM. The highest
chances will be toward the northern zones as shortwave lift will be
stronger here. Breezy behind the cold front with a gusty WNW flow in
a cold air advection regime. Gusts of 20-30 mph expected.

Breezy conditions continue into Thursday as high pressure builds in
from the west with low pressure slowly moving through the Canadian
Maritimes, maintaining a relatively tight pressure gradient over
here. Deep WNW flow with low level downsloping should be able to
offset the low amount of moisture trying to advect in from the Great
Lakes. Will therefore keep with a dry forecast with mostly sunny
conditions. It'll be colder than normal however, with highs from the
upper 30s to mid 40s along with wind chills making it feel about 10
degrees colder.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
*Pattern Overview*

The northern branch of the jet stream with its strong confluence zone
across the area deposits high pressure to begin the period Thursday
night into Friday. This will bring seasonably cold and dry
conditions. The confluence zone then lifts out paving the way for a
weak disturbance from the west and upper level energy in the
southern branch to move towards the area for the first half of the
weekend. The trough then lifts and potentially closes along the
coast into Sunday and possibly into a portion of Monday. The trough
along the west coast will then pivot through the Rockies late in the
weekend and get into the Plains for early next week. This will
result in rising 500 mb heights further downstream along the Eastern
seaboard towards Tuesday. The rise in heights across our area may
get delayed with a closed low stubborn to exit the eastern seaboard.

*Details*

High pressure delivers a dry and chilly air mass for Thursday night
into Friday. The winds will gradually diminish Thursday night as
wind chill values are expected to get down into the teens to lower
20s late at night and for early Friday morning. The high will then
settle over the area Friday with light winds. Temperatures will
remain below normal with highs mainly in the lower and middle 40s.

Towards Friday evening clouds will increase from the west as a weak
disturbance approaches from the west. Much of Friday night should
remain dry as lift should remain weak, at least through the first
half of the night. Then towards Saturday morning low pressure gets
to the southeastern coast and moisture from the primary western
system moves into western portions of the CWA. At the onset there
may be some snowflakes / wintry mix across far northern and
northwestern sections. However, a quick transition to plain rain is
expected. The mid and upper levels winds become more southerly as an
inverted trough as indicated by NWP is progged to move into the
area. This will serve as an axis of moisture. The ECMWF and GEM has
now come around more to the ICON and GFS solutions with the moisture
axis setting up right along coastal sections into the day on
Saturday. Thus it now appears likely that rain will move from south
to north across the area on Saturday, and potentially into Saturday
night and into a portion of Sunday. The global model guidance
consensus points to the rain being focused over the eastern half of
the area and this is where the highest potential of 1+ inch amounts
will be. Overall, rain on the order of 0.50 to 1.50 inches is
expected for the first half of the weekend with the higher amounts
further east where flash flood guidance would be higher. See the
hydrology section regarding further details.

Questions are abound for Sunday and Sunday night, and even into
early Monday as a lot of the guidance is now closing off the 500 mb
low. This would serve to slow the progression of the system and would
keep clouds in place for the remainder of the weekend along with
shower chances. Eventually towards Monday the low and trough axis
are expected to pivot out of the area with heights building once the
low can get out of the way. Therefore look for unsettled conditions
for the majority of the weekend. Monday at this point is filled with
uncertainty as to whether the upper level low will remain stalled,
or pivots to the east. Once this happens a milder southerly flow
with building heights should allow temperatures to return to normal
on Tuesday.

Temperatures are expected to remain close to normal overall, with
daytime temperatures expected to average slightly below normal
through the period.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A cold front passes across the terminals this afternoon and
evening.

Mainly VFR through the TAF period. Scattered showers this
afternoon may bring brief MVFR conditions. There may also be
some ice pellets or wet snow mixed in well NW of the NYC
terminals with a few of these showers. The showers will taper
off from west to east early in the evening.

Light flow to start the TAF period should become SSW-SW towards
day break around 10 kt or less. Wind speeds increase through
the morning, becoming 10-15 kt with gusts around 20 kt possible.
The wind direction becomes less certain this afternoon,
especially near the coast. Winds may shift to the S and weaken
briefly. This will be short-lived as winds will quickly become
W-WNW behind the cold front passage 20-23z. Wind speeds and
gusts then increase, becoming 15-20 kt with gusts around 30 kt
this evening. A few gusts could reach 35 kt. There may be some
slight weakening late tonight, but gusts still average around
25 kt.

     NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Gusts this morning and early afternoon may be occasional.

Wind shift to the S at KJFK and potential KLGA this afternoon
will be brief if it occurs. It is entirely possible for the wind
direction to remain SW before winds shift to the W-WNW this
evening.

OUTLOOK FOR 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

Late tonight: VFR with WNW-NW winds around 15 kt, gusts around
25 kt.

Thursday: VFR. NW winds 15 kt with gusts around 25 kt.

Friday: VFR through early evening. MVFR or lower possible overnight
with chances for rain near coast and rain/snow inland.

Saturday: IFR and rain. SE wind gusts 20-25 kt during the day
city east, becoming N with gusts 25-30 kt at night.

Sunday: Mainly VFR. Chance of rain. N wind gusts 25 kt.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
SCA on the non-ocean waters was allowed to expire for this
evening as winds have begun to relax, however advisory
conditions return Wed evening, and have hoisted a new SCA from
22Z Wed thru 10Z Thu for these waters.

On the ocean, although there will be a period late tonight into
a portion of Wed morning where conditions will likely prevail
under advisory criteria, decided to extend the SCA all the way
through Weds night as advisory conditions become more probable
by Weds afternoon. After collaboration, have decided to hold off
on a Gale Watch (more likely on the ocean) as there is higher
confidence in SCA conditions prevailing through the period.
There could be a couple of periods Weds night (right behind the
cold front in the evening) into Thursday (in the morning before
winds slowly subside) where gales could occur. Will leave the
mention of this in the HWO for now.

Small craft conditions subside Thursday night as the pressure
gradient relaxes. Lighter winds will result in sub small craft
conditions Friday. Late Friday night and Saturday morning a SE flow
increases with small craft conditions returning to the ocean waters
and the most of the near shore waters, with the possible exception
of NY Harbor and Western LI Sound. Seas will climb quickly Saturday
afternoon on the ocean waters with ocean seas reaching 10 to 12 feet
by Saturday night as small craft conditions will prevail on the near
shore waters and gale conditions a good bet on the ocean waters.
Gale conditions are also possible on the eastern near shore waters
also at this time. A strong and prolonged N to NE flow will take
place Sunday and likely linger into the early part of next week with
strong high pressure to the north and low pressure offshore.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts are expected through Thursday. Rain on the
order of 0.50 to 1.50 inches is expected for the first half of
the weekend. At this point in time the only anticipated
hydrologic impacts would be minor nuisance urban flooding as FFG
has recovered some over the past week from previous rain
events. There remains some elevated pockets of soil moisture,
but the coverage of elevated soil moisture has decreased some.
As of now the axis of steadier, heavier rainfall would be over
eastern areas where flash flood guidance is relatively higher.
Widespread significant flooding is therefore not expected at
this time, but forecast uncertainty regarding the placement of
the axis of heaviest rainfall remains high.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM EDT
     Thursday for ANZ331-332-335-338-340-345.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ350-353-
     355.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JC/JE
NEAR TERM...JC/DBR
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...JE
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...JC/JE/DR
HYDROLOGY...JC/JE

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service New York NY
355 PM EDT Tue Mar 19 2024

CTZ005>012-NJZ002-004-006-103>108-NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179-202000-
Northern Fairfield-Northern New Haven-Northern Middlesex-
Northern New London-Southern Fairfield-Southern New Haven-
Southern Middlesex-Southern New London-Western Passaic-
Eastern Passaic-Hudson-Western Bergen-Eastern Bergen-Western Essex-
Eastern Essex-Western Union-Eastern Union-Orange-Putnam-Rockland-
Northern Westchester-Southern Westchester-New York (Manhattan)-Bronx-
Richmond (Staten Island)-Kings (Brooklyn)-Northwest Suffolk-
Northeast Suffolk-Southwest Suffolk-Southeast Suffolk-
Northern Queens-Northern Nassau-Southern Queens-Southern Nassau-
355 PM EDT Tue Mar 19 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southern Connecticut,
northeast New Jersey and southeast New York.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather that would meet NWS
warning criteria is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

This Hazardous Weather Outlook provides a summary of potential
widespread hazardous weather events that may reach NWS warning
criteria. Most long fused NWS watches, warnings, and advisories in
effect are highlighted.

Please refer to the latest NWS forecasts for weather not meeting NWS
warning criteria.

ANZ331-332-335-338-340-345-350-353-355-202000-
Long Island Sound East of New Haven CT/Port Jefferson NY to the
Mouth of the Connecticut River-
Long Island Sound East of the Mouth of the Connecticut River-
Long Island Sound West of New Haven CT/Port Jefferson NY-
New York Harbor-Peconic and Gardiners Bays-
South Shore Bays from Jones Inlet through Shinnecock Bay-
Moriches Inlet NY to Montauk Point NY out 20 nm-
Fire Island Inlet NY to Moriches Inlet NY out 20 nm-
Sandy Hook NJ to Fire Island Inlet NY out 20 nm-
355 PM EDT Tue Mar 19 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Atlantic coastal waters.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

A period of gale force conditions is possible Wed night into
Thursday, followed potentially by another period of gales which may
be prolonged from late Saturday night through early Monday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

This Hazardous Weather Outlook provides a summary of potential
widespread hazardous weather events that may reach NWS warning
criteria. Most long fused NWS watches, warnings, and advisories in
effect are highlighted.

Please refer to the latest NWS forecasts for weather not meeting NWS
warning criteria.