Flash Flood Warning 19, NWS New York, NY

803 
WGUS71 KOKX 182002
FFSOKX

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service New York NY
402 PM EDT Sun Aug 18 2024

CTC001-009-182200-
/O.CON.KOKX.FF.W.0019.000000T0000Z-240818T2200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Fairfield CT-New Haven CT-
402 PM EDT Sun Aug 18 2024

...FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY FOR CENTRAL FAIRFIELD COUNTY TOWARD 
NORTHERN NEW HAVEN COUNTIES...

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING 
FOR CENTRAL FAIRFIELD AND NORTHWESTERN NEW HAVEN COUNTIES...

At 402 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing heavy 
rain in Central Fairfield to Northern New Haven Counties. Widespread 
water rescues are taking place, especially in the Southbury area. 
Several mudslides have also been reported. Between 5 and 9 inches of 
rain have fallen. The expected rainfall rate is 0.75 to 1.5 inches 
in 1 hour. Additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches are possible 
in the warned area. Flash flooding is already occurring.

This is a FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY for Central Fairfield County toward 
Northern New Haven Counties. This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS 
SITUATION. SEEK HIGHER GROUND NOW!

HAZARD...Life threatening flash flooding. Thunderstorms producing
         flash flooding.

SOURCE...Radar.

IMPACT...This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. SEEK HIGHER
         GROUND NOW! Life threatening flash flooding of low water
         crossings, small creeks and streams, urban areas,
         highways, streets and underpasses.

Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
  Waterbury, Danbury, Shelton, Naugatuck, Southbury, Newtown, 
  Fairfield, Trumbull, Ridgefield, Monroe, Bethel, Wilton, 
  Brookfield, Weston, Redding, Middlebury, Beacon Falls, Georgetown, 
  Oxford and Easton.

Law enforcement is reporting widespread water rescues taking place 
from Central Fairfield County into Northern New Haven County. In 
addition to reports of several mudslides, some road washouts have 
also been reported, particularly around the Southbury area.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Move to higher ground now! This is an extremely dangerous and 
life-threatening situation. Do not attempt to travel unless you are 
fleeing an area subject to flooding or under an evacuation order.

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Be aware of your surroundings and do not drive on flooded roads.

&&

LAT...LON 4151 7339 4149 7337 4147 7331 4149 7333
      4151 7332 4151 7316 4156 7316 4157 7309
      4159 7308 4159 7306 4158 7303 4149 7305
      4132 7319 4122 7329 4122 7349 4123 7350
      4151 7340

FLASH FLOOD...RADAR INDICATED
FLASH FLOOD DAMAGE THREAT...CATASTROPHIC
EXPECTED RAINFALL RATE...0.75-1.5 INCHES IN 1 HOUR

$$

MW

454 
WGUS51 KOKX 182108
FFWOKX
CTC001-009-182300-
/O.EXT.KOKX.FF.W.0019.000000T0000Z-240818T2300Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Flash Flood Warning
National Weather Service New York NY
508 PM EDT Sun Aug 18 2024

...FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY FOR CENTRAL FAIRFIELD COUNTY TOWARD 
NORTHERN NEW HAVEN COUNTIES...

The National Weather Service in Upton has extended the

* Flash Flood Warning for...
  Central Fairfield County in southern Connecticut...
  Northwestern New Haven County in southern Connecticut...

* Until 700 PM EDT.

* At 508 PM EDT, emergency management reported widespread water 
  rescues across Central Fairfield to Northern New Haven Counties. 
  Several mudslides have been reported. Between 5 and 10 inches of 
  rain have fallen. The expected rainfall rate is 1 to 2 inches in 1 
  hour. Additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches are possible in 
  the warned area. Flash flooding is already occurring.

  This is a FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY for Central Fairfield County 
  toward Northern New Haven Counties. This is a PARTICULARLY 
  DANGEROUS SITUATION. SEEK HIGHER GROUND NOW!

  HAZARD...Life threatening flash flooding. Thunderstorms
           producing flash flooding.

  SOURCE...Emergency management reported.

  IMPACT...This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. SEEK
           HIGHER GROUND NOW! Life threatening flash flooding of
           low water crossings, small creeks and streams, urban
           areas, highways, streets and underpasses.

* Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
  Waterbury, Danbury, Shelton, Naugatuck, Southbury, Newtown, 
  Fairfield, Trumbull, Ridgefield, Monroe, Bethel, Wilton, 
  Brookfield, Weston, Redding, Middlebury, Beacon Falls, Georgetown, 
  Oxford and Easton.

Law enforcement is reporting widespread water rescues taking place 
from Central Fairfield County into Northern New Haven County. In 
addition to reports of several mudslides, some road washouts have 
also been reported, particularly around the Southbury and Monroe 
areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Move to higher ground now! This is an extremely dangerous and 
life-threatening situation. Do not attempt to travel unless you are 
fleeing an area subject to flooding or under an evacuation order.

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Be aware of your surroundings and do not drive on flooded roads.

&&

LAT...LON 4151 7339 4149 7337 4147 7331 4149 7333
      4151 7332 4151 7316 4156 7316 4157 7309
      4159 7308 4159 7306 4158 7303 4149 7305
      4132 7319 4122 7329 4122 7349 4123 7350
      4151 7340

FLASH FLOOD...OBSERVED
FLASH FLOOD DAMAGE THREAT...CATASTROPHIC
EXPECTED RAINFALL RATE...1-2 INCHES IN 1 HOUR

$$

MW

860 
WGUS51 KOKX 182216
FFWOKX
CTC001-009-190000-
/O.EXT.KOKX.FF.W.0019.000000T0000Z-240819T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Flash Flood Warning
National Weather Service New York NY
616 PM EDT Sun Aug 18 2024

...FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY FOR CENTRAL FAIRFIELD COUNTY TOWARD 
NORTHERN NEW HAVEN COUNTIES...

The National Weather Service in Upton has extended the

* Flash Flood Warning for...
  Central Fairfield County in southern Connecticut...
  Northwestern New Haven County in southern Connecticut...

* Until 800 PM EDT.

* At 616 PM EDT, emergency management reported numerous water 
  rescues and washouts in Central Fairfield to Northern New Haven 
  Counties. Several mudslides have been reported. Between 6 and 10 
  inches of rain have fallen. The expected rainfall rate is 1 to 2 
  inches in 1 hour. Additional rainfall amounts of 0.5 to 2 inches 
  are possible in the warned area. Flash flooding is already 
  occurring.

  This is a FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY for Central Fairfield County 
  toward Northern New Haven Counties. This is a PARTICULARLY 
  DANGEROUS SITUATION. SEEK HIGHER GROUND NOW!

  HAZARD...Life threatening flash flooding. Thunderstorms
           producing flash flooding.

  SOURCE...Emergency management reported.

  IMPACT...This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. SEEK
           HIGHER GROUND NOW! Life threatening flash flooding of
           low water crossings, small creeks and streams, urban
           areas, highways, streets and underpasses.

* Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
  Waterbury, Danbury, Shelton, Naugatuck, Southbury, Newtown, 
  Fairfield, Trumbull, Ridgefield, Monroe, Bethel, Wilton, 
  Brookfield, Weston, Redding, Middlebury, Beacon Falls, Georgetown, 
  Oxford and Easton.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Move to higher ground now! This is an extremely dangerous and 
life-threatening situation. Do not attempt to travel unless you are 
fleeing an area subject to flooding or under an evacuation order.

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Be aware of your surroundings and do not drive on flooded roads.

&&

LAT...LON 4151 7339 4149 7337 4147 7331 4149 7333
      4151 7332 4151 7316 4156 7316 4157 7309
      4159 7308 4159 7306 4158 7303 4149 7305
      4132 7319 4122 7329 4122 7349 4123 7350
      4151 7340

FLASH FLOOD...OBSERVED
FLASH FLOOD DAMAGE THREAT...CATASTROPHIC
EXPECTED RAINFALL RATE...1-2 INCHES IN 1 HOUR

$$

MW

006 
WGUS51 KOKX 182329
FFWOKX
CTC001-009-190200-
/O.EXT.KOKX.FF.W.0019.000000T0000Z-240819T0200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Flash Flood Warning
National Weather Service New York NY
729 PM EDT Sun Aug 18 2024

...FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY FOR CENTRAL FAIRFIELD COUNTY TOWARD 
NORTHERN NEW HAVEN COUNTIES...

The National Weather Service in Upton has extended the

* Flash Flood Warning for...
  Central Fairfield County in southern Connecticut...
  Northwestern New Haven County in southern Connecticut...

* Until 1000 PM EDT.

* At 729 PM EDT, emergency management reported ongoing widespread 
  flooding and water rescues in Central Fairfield to Northern New 
  Haven Counties. Between 6 and 10 inches of rain have fallen. 
  Additional rainfall amounts of 0.5 to 1 inch are possible in the 
  warned area. Flash flooding is already occurring.

  This is a FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY for Central Fairfield County 
  toward Northern New Haven Counties. This is a PARTICULARLY 
  DANGEROUS SITUATION. SEEK HIGHER GROUND NOW!

  HAZARD...Life threatening flash flooding. Thunderstorms
           producing flash flooding.

  SOURCE...Emergency management reported.

  IMPACT...This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. SEEK
           HIGHER GROUND NOW! Life threatening flash flooding of
           low water crossings, small creeks and streams, urban
           areas, highways, streets and underpasses.

* Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
  Waterbury, Danbury, Shelton, Naugatuck, Southbury, Newtown, 
  Fairfield, Trumbull, Ridgefield, Monroe, Bethel, Wilton, 
  Brookfield, Weston, Redding, Middlebury, Beacon Falls, Georgetown, 
  Oxford and Easton.

Law enforcement is reporting widespread water rescues taking place 
from Central Fairfield County into Northern New Haven County. In 
addition to reports of several mudslides, some road washouts have 
also been reported, particularly around the Southbury, Monroe, and 
Oxford areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Move to higher ground now! This is an extremely dangerous and 
life-threatening situation. Do not attempt to travel unless you are 
fleeing an area subject to flooding or under an evacuation order.

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize the 
dangers of flooding.

Be aware of your surroundings and do not drive on flooded roads.

&&

LAT...LON 4151 7339 4149 7337 4147 7331 4149 7333
      4151 7332 4151 7316 4156 7316 4157 7309
      4159 7308 4159 7306 4158 7303 4149 7305
      4132 7319 4122 7329 4122 7349 4123 7350
      4151 7340

FLASH FLOOD...OBSERVED
FLASH FLOOD DAMAGE THREAT...CATASTROPHIC

$$

MW

761 
WGUS51 KOKX 190149
FFWOKX
CTC001-009-190400-
/O.EXT.KOKX.FF.W.0019.000000T0000Z-240819T0400Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Flash Flood Warning
National Weather Service New York NY
949 PM EDT Sun Aug 18 2024

...FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY FOR CENTRAL FAIRFIELD COUNTY TOWARD 
NORTHERN NEW HAVEN COUNTIES...

The National Weather Service in Upton has extended the

* Flash Flood Warning for...
  Central Fairfield County in southern Connecticut...
  Northwestern New Haven County in southern Connecticut...

* Until midnight EDT tonight.

* At 949 PM EDT, emergency management reported ongoing widespread 
  flooding and water rescues in Central Fairfield to Northern New 
  Haven Counties. Between 6 and 10 inches of rain have fallen. 
  Additional rainfall amounts of 0.5 to 1 inch are possible in the 
  warned area. Flash flooding is already occurring.

  This is a FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY for Central Fairfield County 
  toward Northern New Haven Counties. This is a PARTICULARLY 
  DANGEROUS SITUATION. SEEK HIGHER GROUND NOW!

  HAZARD...Life threatening flash flooding. Thunderstorms
           producing flash flooding.

  SOURCE...Emergency management reported.

  IMPACT...This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. SEEK
           HIGHER GROUND NOW! Life threatening flash flooding of
           low water crossings, small creeks and streams, urban
           areas, highways, streets and underpasses.

* Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
  Waterbury, Danbury, Shelton, Naugatuck, Southbury, Newtown, 
  Fairfield, Trumbull, Ridgefield, Monroe, Bethel, Wilton, 
  Brookfield, Weston, Redding, Middlebury, Beacon Falls, Georgetown, 
  Oxford and Easton.

Emergency management is continuing to report ongoing water rescues, 
several mudslides, numerous washed out roadways and bridges as well 
as swollen rivers taking place from Central Fairfield County into 
Northern New Haven County. In addition, emergency management 
official are assessing the integrity of several dams in the area.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This is an extremely dangerous and life-threatening situation. Do 
not attempt to travel unless you are fleeing an area subject to 
flooding or under an evacuation order.

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize the 
dangers of flooding.

Be aware of your surroundings and do not drive on flooded roads.

&&

LAT...LON 4151 7339 4149 7337 4147 7331 4149 7333
      4151 7332 4151 7316 4156 7316 4157 7309
      4159 7308 4159 7306 4158 7303 4149 7305
      4132 7319 4122 7329 4122 7349 4123 7350
      4151 7340

FLASH FLOOD...OBSERVED
FLASH FLOOD DAMAGE THREAT...CATASTROPHIC

$$

MW

511 
WGUS71 KOKX 190349
FFSOKX

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service New York NY
1149 PM EDT Sun Aug 18 2024

CTC001-009-190359-
/O.CAN.KOKX.FF.W.0019.000000T0000Z-240819T0400Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Fairfield CT-New Haven CT-
1149 PM EDT Sun Aug 18 2024

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR CENTRAL FAIRFIELD AND 
NORTHWESTERN NEW HAVEN COUNTIES...

The heavy rain has ended. The Flash Flood Warning has been replaced 
with an Areal Flood Warning for residual flooding and flood related 
impacts. Please continue to heed remaining road closures.

A Flood Watch remains in effect until 200 AM EDT for portions of 
southern Connecticut and southeast New York.

&&

LAT...LON 4151 7339 4149 7337 4147 7331 4149 7333
      4151 7332 4151 7316 4156 7316 4157 7309
      4159 7308 4159 7306 4158 7303 4149 7305
      4132 7319 4122 7329 4122 7349 4123 7350
      4151 7340

$$

MW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
200 PM EDT Sun Aug 18 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure tracks slowly eastward through the Great Lakes
today as a secondary low develops over the Mid Atlantic. This low
moves north and east into the local area tonight, sending a cold
front through the area Monday. A secondary frontal passage moves
through Tuesday. High pressure then builds in for the middle and
end of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Adjustments to POPs for showers and slight downward adjustment
with temperatures. Heavy rain threat remains with the shower
activity.

Slow moving frontal system tracks into the region today, bringing
a couple rounds of heavy rainfall with it. Thunderstorms
isolated initially are forecast to expand in coverage late this
afternoon into this evening with growing low level CAPE,
especially across the NYC Metro and locations and north and
west.

Heavy showers along with embedded occasional isolated
thunderstorms have moved across western portions of the region,
mainly in the corridor for eastern parts of the NYC Metro,
within Nassau and into Westchester NY and Fairfield CT. A
southerly low level jet around 20 kt has been aiding in the
development of these showers and acting as a moisture feed.
Total rainfall has already reached a few inches within parts of
the region with some near 4 inch rainfall totals as well.

CAMs showing more scattered convection developing mainly across
western parts of the region going into this afternoon and then a
more organized cluster or line of convection moving in for this
evening from the west.

This entire system will be slow moving eastward as downstream ridging
remains across the western North Atlantic. A frontal wave
develops along the Mid Atlantic coast into this evening, before
pushing north into the local area. This low provides lift for
additional heavy rainfall later today and tonight. Limited
shear and instability should keep activity mainly sub-severe and
disorganized, but can't rule out thunderstorms. Of greater
concern is the potential for training convection and heavy
downpours that lead to flooding. PWATs already over 1.5 inches
in the OKX 00Z sounding increases toward 2 inches today, and
efficient warm cloud processes could allow for elevated rainfall
rates with this activity. 00Z HREF signals the potential for
rainfall rates perhaps as high as 2 inches in an hour, especially
over New Jersey and Lower Hudson Valley zones. While total QPF
looks to average a general 1 to 2 inches for locations along and
west of the Hudson River, including the NYC metro, localized
amount could approach 3 or 4 inches depending on placement and
training of cells.

All this said, the Flood Watch remains in effect through late
tonight for zones west of the Hudson River for the potential of
scattered flash flooding, urban and poor drainage flooding, and
possibly flooding of faster responding streams in NE NJ. Areas to
the east look to miss out on the axis of heaviest rainfall based on
latest hi-res guidance, so opted not to expand the watch any further
east with this update. Certainly, if the axis shifts a bit east,
or if training convection develops, flooding could be an issue
here as well, including in NYC and urban centers. WPC has kept
the slight risk for excessive rainfall in place for similar
areas, expanding just a bit to the east to include the entire
NYC metro and SE CT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
An unsettled start to the work week as the upper trough and
frontal system continue to impact the region.

Cold front and weak coastal wave of low pressure approach on
Monday as the trough axis begins to shift into the Northeast.
Another round of showers and possible thunderstorms likely
Monday into Monday night. This will mainly be associated with
the cold front, but the nearby low could enhanced rainfall.
Still some uncertainty on severity and placement, but there will
remain a threat for locally heavy rainfall, nuisance flooding,
and an isolated flash flooding occurrence.

The area remains under a broad trough with vorticity maxima
moving through Monday night and into Tuesday. As the trough
tries to lift during the day on Tuesday, additional energy
descends from the north to allow for another round of forcing.
At the surface, this should translate into the form of a
secondary frontal passage that brings another round of showers
with possible embedded thunderstorms, especially Monday night
into Tuesday morning. Any residual showers should diminish into
the afternoon on Tuesday with the passage of the surface cold
front. This will set the stage for drier and cooler conditions
to take hold into midweek. Behind the fropa, highs on Tuesday
could be the coolest since late May for some, generally in the
upper 60s and lower 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
No significant changes in the long term. A drier, cooler pattern
develops midweek behind the frontal system as dry air advects
south with surface high pressure building in. Lingering trough
over the Northeast may persist into late week, reinforced by a
closed upper low dropping south out of Canada.

This high pressure will be accompanied with primarily N/NW winds
and a much cooler regime, perhaps the coolest since late spring.
High temperatures Wednesday may not rise out of the low 70s for
much of the area. Lows Wednesday night and Thursday night will
likely be fairly chilly, with some locations for the interior
and outlying areas possibly dropping into the low 50s or upper
40s, depending on the strength of any radiational cooling.
Temperatures will gradually moderate into late week and the
weekend with highs by Friday and Saturday rising back into the
upper 70s to low 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A frontal system slowly approaches the terminals through
tonight, with a wave of low pressure and cold front passing
through Monday morning.

MVFR, with breaks of VFR at the NYC metro terminals. There is a
chance of IFR east of the NYC terminals. Scattered showers and
an isolated thunderstorm will east of the NYC terminals through
the afternoon. Another round of showers and thunderstorms is
likely by early this evening, with a few of the thunderstorms
possibly producing strong gusty winds. Also, periods of moderate
to heavy rainfall will be likely with any of the showers and
thunderstorms. Showers will be continuing through tonight, and
then taper off toward Monday morning. Low confidence with timing
of flight category changes and with timing and areal coverage of
showers and thunderstorms this evening.

Winds will be S to SE through tonight, with gusts 17kt to 24kt
this afternoon, more likely at the NYC metro terminals. Winds
begin to shift toward the SW during Monday morning.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Low confidence forecast with timing of flight category changes
and timing/areal coverage of showers and thunderstorms. A few
strong thunderstorms are possible late this afternoon and this
evening with gusty winds possible.

S to SE winds will be gusty, with gusts 17kt to 24kt at times,
with the gusts ending early this evening.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

Monday afternoon: Generally VFR. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms with MVFR or lower at times.

Tuesday: Mainly VFR. A chance of showers, mainly in the
morning, with MVFR possible. NW wind gusts 15-20 kt.

Wednesday-Friday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Rough ocean seas and long period swells, 12 to 15 second, will
persist through Monday as distant TC Ernesto passes well
offshore in the open Atlantic. This is also leading to rough
conditions around inlets. Please refer to the National Hurricane
Center for official forecasts regarding Ernesto. A Small Craft
Advisory remains in effect for the ocean zones thru Monday
night. Seas on the eastern LI Sound could also approach 5 ft at
times today, though thinking this may be more occasional.

Thereafter, elevated wave heights on the ocean zones will allow
for SCA conditions to continue Monday night and possibly into
the day on Tuesday. By Late Tuesday, wind diminish and wave
heights should fall below 5 feet. Sub-SCA conditions are then
expected with high pressure moving into the area by midweek.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A Flood Watch remains in effect thru late tonight for NE New
Jersey and into the Lower Hudson Valley west of the Hudson
River. Isolated to scattered instances of flash flooding are
possible across the more flood prone areas of NE NJ and adjacent
areas of the Lower Hudson Valley, and perhaps as far east as
NYC. Locally heavy rainfall is possible, mainly this morning,
and again this late today into tonight, with rainfall rates up
to an inch or two per hour. Farther east, the risk for flash
flooding is lower, but cannot be entirely ruled out. Ponding and
poor drainage flooding is the most likely solution here with
any heavier activity.

Additional rainfall expected on Monday and Monday night will
lead to a more widespread threat for localized flash flooding,
along with nuisance flooding of urban and poor drainage areas.

Total rainfall through Monday night ranges from around a half
inch east to between 1 and 2 inches from NYC metro on north and
west. Locally higher amounts, possibly up to 3 or 4 inches, are
possible across northeastern New Jersey into the Lower Hudson
Valley.

No hydrologic concerns Tuesday through next weekend.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A high rip current risk is in place through Monday due to elevated,
long period swells from passing TC Ernesto.

Ocean seas are forecast to be highest today and Monday, and
with surf heights up to 6 ft, local beach erosion is possible.

A full moon on Monday as well as swell from distant TC Ernesto
will elevated tide levels today into early this week. Minor
coastal flooding is expected with high tide this evening across
the back bays of Nassau and Western Sound along the southwest CT
and S Westchester coast. Have issued a Coastal Flood Advisory
for these locations. Localized minor coastal flooding is
possible across southern Queens, Southern Brooklyn and lower NY
Harbor. Locations may just touch minor benchmarks and a
statement has been issued. Additional minor flooding is possible
for high tide Monday evening and statements/Advisories will
likely be needed for similar locations as with high tide this
evening.

Please refer to NHC for official forecasts regarding Hurricane
Ernesto.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Coastal Flood Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 1 AM EDT
     Monday for CTZ009.
NY...Coastal Flood Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 1 AM EDT
     Monday for NYZ071.
     Flood Watch through late tonight for NYZ067-069.
     High Risk for Rip Currents through Monday evening for NYZ075-080-
     081-178-179.
     Coastal Flood Advisory from 7 PM to 10 PM EDT this evening for
     NYZ179.
NJ...Flood Watch through late tonight for NJZ002-004-006-103>108.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ350-353-355.

&&

SYNOPSIS...DR
NEAR TERM...JM/DR
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...JM/DR
HYDROLOGY...JM/DR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service New York NY
221 PM EDT Sun Aug 18 2024

NJZ002-004-006-103>108-NYZ067-069-191830-
Western Passaic-Eastern Passaic-Hudson-Western Bergen-Eastern Bergen-
Western Essex-Eastern Essex-Western Union-Eastern Union-Orange-
Rockland-
221 PM EDT Sun Aug 18 2024

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 634 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast New Jersey and
southeast New York.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.
   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time that would meet NWS
warning criteria.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.

&&

This Hazardous Weather Outlook provides a summary of potential
widespread hazardous weather events that may reach NWS warning
criteria. Most long fused NWS watches, warnings, and advisories in
effect are highlighted.

Please refer to the latest NWS forecasts for weather not meeting NWS
warning criteria.

NYZ080-081-191830-
Southwest Suffolk-Southeast Suffolk-
221 PM EDT Sun Aug 18 2024

...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast New York.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   High Rip Current Risk.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   High Rip Current Risk.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

This Hazardous Weather Outlook provides a summary of potential
widespread hazardous weather events that may reach NWS warning
criteria. Most long fused NWS watches, warnings, and advisories in
effect are highlighted.

Please refer to the latest NWS forecasts for weather not meeting NWS
warning criteria.

CTZ007-008-010>012-NYZ078-079-191830-
Northern Middlesex-Northern New London-Southern New Haven-
Southern Middlesex-Southern New London-Northwest Suffolk-
Northeast Suffolk-
221 PM EDT Sun Aug 18 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southern Connecticut and
southeast New York.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time that would meet NWS
warning criteria.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

This Hazardous Weather Outlook provides a summary of potential
widespread hazardous weather events that may reach NWS warning
criteria. Most long fused NWS watches, warnings, and advisories in
effect are highlighted.

Please refer to the latest NWS forecasts for weather not meeting NWS
warning criteria.

ANZ331-332-335-340-345-350-353-355-191830-
Long Island Sound East of New Haven CT/Port Jefferson NY to the
Mouth of the Connecticut River-
Long Island Sound East of the Mouth of the Connecticut River-
Long Island Sound West of New Haven CT/Port Jefferson NY-
Peconic and Gardiners Bays-
South Shore Bays from Jones Inlet through Shinnecock Bay-
Moriches Inlet NY to Montauk Point NY out 20 nm-
Fire Island Inlet NY to Moriches Inlet NY out 20 nm-
Sandy Hook NJ to Fire Island Inlet NY out 20 nm-
221 PM EDT Sun Aug 18 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Atlantic coastal waters.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time that would meet NWS
warning criteria.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

This Hazardous Weather Outlook provides a summary of potential
widespread hazardous weather events that may reach NWS warning
criteria. Most long fused NWS watches, warnings, and advisories in
effect are highlighted.

Please refer to the latest NWS forecasts for weather not meeting NWS
warning criteria.

ANZ338-191830-
New York Harbor-
221 PM EDT Sun Aug 18 2024

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 634 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Atlantic coastal waters.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time that would meet NWS
warning criteria.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.

&&

This Hazardous Weather Outlook provides a summary of potential
widespread hazardous weather events that may reach NWS warning
criteria. Most long fused NWS watches, warnings, and advisories in
effect are highlighted.

Please refer to the latest NWS forecasts for weather not meeting NWS
warning criteria.

NYZ068-070-072>074-176-191830-
Putnam-Northern Westchester-New York (Manhattan)-Bronx-
Richmond (Staten Island)-Northern Queens-
221 PM EDT Sun Aug 18 2024

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 634 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast New York.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

Isolated to scattered instances of flash flooding are possible
today and tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time that would meet NWS
warning criteria.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.

&&

This Hazardous Weather Outlook provides a summary of potential
widespread hazardous weather events that may reach NWS warning
criteria. Most long fused NWS watches, warnings, and advisories in
effect are highlighted.

Please refer to the latest NWS forecasts for weather not meeting NWS
warning criteria.

CTZ009-191830-
Southern Fairfield-
221 PM EDT Sun Aug 18 2024

...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM
EDT MONDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southern Connecticut.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Coastal Flood Advisory.

Additional instances of flash flooding are possible today and
tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time that would meet NWS
warning criteria.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.

&&

This Hazardous Weather Outlook provides a summary of potential
widespread hazardous weather events that may reach NWS warning
criteria. Most long fused NWS watches, warnings, and advisories in
effect are highlighted.

Please refer to the latest NWS forecasts for weather not meeting NWS
warning criteria.

NYZ071-191830-
Southern Westchester-
221 PM EDT Sun Aug 18 2024

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 634 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...
...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM
EDT MONDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast New York.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.
   Coastal Flood Advisory.

Additional instances of flash flooding are possible today and
tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time that would meet NWS
warning criteria.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.

&&

This Hazardous Weather Outlook provides a summary of potential
widespread hazardous weather events that may reach NWS warning
criteria. Most long fused NWS watches, warnings, and advisories in
effect are highlighted.

Please refer to the latest NWS forecasts for weather not meeting NWS
warning criteria.

NYZ075-178-191830-
Kings (Brooklyn)-Southern Queens-
221 PM EDT Sun Aug 18 2024

...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING...
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 634 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast New York.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   High Rip Current Risk.
   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   High Rip Current Risk.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.

&&

This Hazardous Weather Outlook provides a summary of potential
widespread hazardous weather events that may reach NWS warning
criteria. Most long fused NWS watches, warnings, and advisories in
effect are highlighted.

Please refer to the latest NWS forecasts for weather not meeting NWS
warning criteria.

NYZ177-191830-
Northern Nassau-
221 PM EDT Sun Aug 18 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast New York.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Isolated to scattered instances of flash flooding are possible
today and tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time that would meet NWS
warning criteria.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed.

&&

This Hazardous Weather Outlook provides a summary of potential
widespread hazardous weather events that may reach NWS warning
criteria. Most long fused NWS watches, warnings, and advisories in
effect are highlighted.

Please refer to the latest NWS forecasts for weather not meeting NWS
warning criteria.

NYZ179-191830-
Southern Nassau-
221 PM EDT Sun Aug 18 2024

...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING...
...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM TO 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast New York.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   High Rip Current Risk.
   Coastal Flood Advisory.

Isolated to scattered instances of flash flooding are possible
today and tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   High Rip Current Risk.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed.

&&

This Hazardous Weather Outlook provides a summary of potential
widespread hazardous weather events that may reach NWS warning
criteria. Most long fused NWS watches, warnings, and advisories in
effect are highlighted.

Please refer to the latest NWS forecasts for weather not meeting NWS
warning criteria.

CTZ006-191830-
Northern New Haven-
221 PM EDT Sun Aug 18 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southern Connecticut.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time that would meet NWS
warning criteria.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.

&&

This Hazardous Weather Outlook provides a summary of potential
widespread hazardous weather events that may reach NWS warning
criteria. Most long fused NWS watches, warnings, and advisories in
effect are highlighted.

Please refer to the latest NWS forecasts for weather not meeting NWS
warning criteria.

CTZ005-191830-
Northern Fairfield-
221 PM EDT Sun Aug 18 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southern Connecticut.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Additional instances of flash flooding are possible today and
tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time that would meet NWS
warning criteria.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.

&&

This Hazardous Weather Outlook provides a summary of potential
widespread hazardous weather events that may reach NWS warning
criteria. Most long fused NWS watches, warnings, and advisories in
effect are highlighted.

Please refer to the latest NWS forecasts for weather not meeting NWS
warning criteria.

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service New York NY
1243 PM EDT Sun Aug 18 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1220 PM     Flash Flood      1 ESE Danbury           41.40N 73.45W
08/18/2024                   Fairfield          CT   Emergency Mngr

            Road closures on Main Street from White
            Street to West Street. Ongoing water rescue
            from vehicle trapped in flood waters.

&&

BG

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service New York NY
130 PM EDT Sun Aug 18 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1134 AM     Flash Flood      2 WNW Rowayton          41.08N 73.47W
08/18/2024                   Fairfield          CT   Broadcast Media

            Video showing running water from the
            Goodwives River out of its banks in the Old
            Kings Market shopping center and along Old
            Kings Hwy N in Darien. Road closure at Old
            Kings Hwy N and Sedgwick Ave.

&&

BG

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service New York NY
159 PM EDT Sun Aug 18 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0120 PM     Flash Flood      2 NNW Bethel            41.39N 73.42W
08/18/2024                   Fairfield          CT   Public

            Mudslide on Shelter Rock Rd in Danbury that
            has caused a major gas leak and evacuations
            in the Woodland Hills Complex.

&&

BG

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service New York NY
201 PM EDT Sun Aug 18 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0120 PM     Flash Flood      1 N Ridgefield          41.29N 73.50W
08/18/2024                   Fairfield          CT   Emergency Mngr

            Multiple road closures in the Town of
            Ridgefield. Roads impassable with water 1 to
            3 feet deep in spots.

&&

BG

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service New York NY
236 PM EDT Sun Aug 18 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0159 PM     Flash Flood      2 WNW Southbury         41.49N 73.26W
08/18/2024                   New Haven          CT   Dept of Highways

            Route 172 all lanes closed.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service New York NY
238 PM EDT Sun Aug 18 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0211 PM     Flash Flood      1 SE Southbury          41.48N 73.21W
08/18/2024                   New Haven          CT   Dept of Highways

            Route 6/67 all lanes closed.

&&