Severe Thunderstorm Warning 8, NWS Nashville, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1225 PM CDT Mon Apr 8 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Tuesday)
Issued at 1100 AM CDT Mon Apr 8 2024

Showers and a few thunderstorms this morning continue for areas
along and near the Cumberland Plateau. This activity should be
exiting the area by noon, and while most will remain dry through
the remainder of the day, we are still expecting some pop-up hit-
and-miss thunderstorms. While CAPE values are expected to rise to
around 500-1000 J/kg this afternoon with a destabilizing
atmosphere - especially across west TN - CAMs aren't really
latching onto much happening this afternoon. Shear isn't great at
less than 50 knots. So while I won't rule out a stray strong storm
this afternoon that manages to produce small hail or gusty winds,
do think that these will be more pulse-like storms that will
struggle to sustain themselves. Organized severe weather is not
expected.

As for the main event today, satellite imagery does show some
breaks in the clouds across western Middle TN! Trying to stay
cautiously optimistic that we'll still get a glimpse of the
eclipse this afternoon. Fingers crossed.

Next round of rain moves into from the southwest after midnight
and will spread northward through early Tuesday morning with
widespread showers and a few thunderstorms expected. Atmospheric
profiles become saturated with PWATs rising to 1.25 to 1.35 inches
which is above the 90th percentile for the date. Due to this, CAPE
values fall with probabilistic guidance showing a very low chance
(10 percent at best) of seeing CAPE values above 100 J/kg. So no
severe weather expected, but may have to keep an eye on any flood-
prone locations or low-lying areas for minor flooding.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday Night through next Monday)
Issued at 1100 AM CDT Mon Apr 8 2024

By Tuesday night and into Wednesday, a deep upper-level low digs
into the Red River area while the surface low deepens over
Arkansas. This keeps our unsettled pattern continuing with
additional rounds of rain on Wednesday. With this upper-level and
surface low, dynamics are better for thunderstorm development,
however, all model guidance continues to show the better
instability and shear to our south. Our far southern counties may
need to be watched for a stray strong storm Wednesday where the
current SPC Day 3 Outlook has a marginal risk in place. However,
the threat for severe weather is low.

Wednesday night and into Thursday, the upper-level and surface low
eject towards the northeast, and this rain will gradually come to
an end by late Thursday. By the end of this rainy stretch, about 2
to 4 inches of rain is expected with the higher amounts expected
for locations nearest the Tennessee River. As the week progresses
and these amounts add up, there may be minor flooding issues,
especially along our area creeks and rivers.

Upper-level ridging builds in this weekend, resulting in a
beautiful weekend! Conditions will be dry and sunny with highs
getting close to 80 by Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1216 PM CDT Mon Apr 8 2024

Although most of the earlier showers have departed Middle
Tennessee, there will still be a few echoes left over for the
afternoon. Also look for TEMPO MVFR clouds the next couple of
hours, although ceilings overall have improved. A warm front will
lift northward across the mid state late tonight and early
tomorrow, so look for showers to redevelop before sunrise, with
ceilings dropping to MVFR and even IFR at times. Surface winds
will be gusty again tomorrow.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      59  66  60  73 /  50  90  90  80
Clarksville    59  65  59  70 /  50  90 100  90
Crossville     54  61  55  70 /  30  90  70  60
Columbia       57  66  59  73 /  70  90  80  90
Cookeville     57  62  57  71 /  40  90  80  70
Jamestown      55  62  55  71 /  30  90  80  60
Lawrenceburg   57  66  60  73 /  70  90  70  80
Murfreesboro   57  66  59  74 /  50  90  80  80
Waverly        57  65  59  70 /  70 100  90  90

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...Clements
LONG TERM....Clements
AVIATION.....Rose