Severe Thunderstorm Warning 76, NWS Nashville, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1247 AM CDT Thu May 9 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 1225 AM CDT Thu May 9 2024

Middle Tennessee is in for a stormy night. All modes of severe
weather remain on the table owing to an environment that is still
moist, unstable, and highly-sheared. Most of the OHX CWA is under
a Flash Flood Warning, in additional to a Tornado Watch for the
entire mid state, and severe storms currently extend as far west
as eastern Arkansas. The MRMS radar-estimated rainfall totals for
the past 24 hours show a wide swath of 7-10" amounts extending
from eastern Montgomery County through much of Robertson and
Sumner Counties. This is in addition to the tornado and wind
damage and large hail reports that have occurred across the mid
state during the past several hours. A significant portion of
Middle Tennessee remains under a moderate risk of severe storms
for the remainder of the night. The severe threat will continue
until a cold front, which is currently situated west of the
Mississippi River, finally pushes this volatile air mass east of
us. Expect some rain and storm chances to linger into Thursday
morning, especially in areas to the east and south of Nashville,
but the severe threat should end by 12Z. Look for cooler
temperatures to accompany the drier air Thursday night and Friday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday Night through next Thursday)
Issued at 1225 AM CDT Thu May 9 2024

Cooler temperatures will last through the weekend, and the only
rain chances this weekend look to affect mainly the Upper Plateau
Saturday afternoon, and these will be relatively inconsequential.
Temperatures will gradually warm back up next week, and more
active weather systems look to affect the mid state beginning
Monday and without much of a break, just like this week, although
Middle Tennessee isn't yet targeted for any severe weather risk in
the SPC's extended outlook. Both the 6-10 day and 8-14 day
outlooks for Middle Tennessee favor near normal temperatures and
above normal rainfall, meaning that we're in for a very wet month
of May.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1141 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024

A line of strong to severe thunderstorms is still expected to
sweep across all TAF sites tonight. Prevailing wind will remain
southerly around 10kt. Thunderstorm winds may be significantly
higher, around 20kt with gusts to 34 kts. VFR conditions return by
midday tomorrow with west to northwest wind 5-10kts.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      85  58  73  52 /  30  10   0   0
Clarksville    83  55  71  51 /  10   0   0   0
Crossville     79  54  68  45 /  70  10  10   0
Columbia       85  58  73  49 /  40  10   0   0
Cookeville     80  55  68  48 /  60  10  10   0
Jamestown      79  54  67  45 /  70  10  10   0
Lawrenceburg   85  58  73  49 /  50  10   0   0
Murfreesboro   85  58  73  49 /  40  10  10   0
Waverly        84  56  71  51 /  20  10   0   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT this morning for Bedford-Cannon-
Cheatham-Clay-Coffee-Cumberland-Davidson-De Kalb-Dickson-
Fentress-Grundy-Hickman-Houston-Humphreys-Jackson-Lewis-Macon-
Marshall-Maury-Montgomery-Overton-Perry-Pickett-Putnam-Robertson-
Rutherford-Smith-Stewart-Sumner-Trousdale-Van Buren-Warren-White-
Williamson-Wilson.

&&

SHORT TERM...Rose
LONG TERM....Rose
AVIATION.....99

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1235 AM CDT Thu May 9 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1234 AM     Flash Flood      4 SSE Sparta            35.89N 85.45W
05/09/2024                   White              TN   911 Call Center

            Ongoing high water and flash flooding at the
            intersection of Hickory Valley Road and Lost
            Creek.

&&

CMA

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Nashville TN
103 AM CDT Thu May 9 2024

TNZ005-006-090630-
Stewart TN-Montgomery TN-
103 AM CDT Thu May 9 2024

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT WESTERN MONTGOMERY AND STEWART
COUNTIES THROUGH 130 AM CDT...

At 103 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Paris Landing State Park, moving east at 50 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Dover, Big Rock, Cumberland City, Land Between The Lakes, Indian
Mound, Palmyra, and Woodlawn.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 300 AM CDT for Middle
Tennessee.

&&

LAT...LON 3666 8785 3663 8785 3664 8749 3639 8747
      3637 8800 3639 8801 3645 8806 3647 8805
      3649 8806 3652 8804 3656 8803 3668 8807
      3668 8802
TIME...MOT...LOC 0603Z 269DEG 41KT 3648 8805

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Mueller

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Nashville TN
106 AM CDT Thu May 9 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0600 PM     Flash Flood      2 WNW Eagleville        35.75N 86.69W
05/08/2024                   Rutherford         TN   Emergency Mngr

            Delayed report - report of flooding along
            Horton Highway at Arno-Allison Road.

&&

CMA

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Nashville TN
158 AM CDT Thu May 9 2024

TNZ008>010-028>032-090745-
Putnam TN-Wilson TN-Trousdale TN-Sumner TN-Clay TN-Jackson TN-
Macon TN-Smith TN-
158 AM CDT Thu May 9 2024

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SMITH...WESTERN JACKSON...
EASTERN SUMNER...NORTHERN WILSON...NORTHWESTERN CLAY...MACON...
TROUSDALE AND WEST CENTRAL PUTNAM COUNTIES THROUGH 245 AM CDT...

At 158 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Westmoreland, or near Hartsville, moving east at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Gallatin, Lafayette, Carthage, Hartsville, Westmoreland,
Gordonsville, Red Boiling Springs, South Carthage, Bethpage,
Bugtussle, Dixon Springs, Oak Grove, Pleasant Shade, Bledsoe Creek
State Park, Dickerson Chapel Recreation Area, and Granville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 300 AM CDT for Middle
Tennessee.

&&

LAT...LON 3662 8568 3616 8576 3630 8652 3665 8639
TIME...MOT...LOC 0658Z 285DEG 36KT 3648 8621

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Mueller

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Nashville TN
250 AM CDT Thu May 9 2024

TNZ028-062-063-090815-
Cannon TN-Rutherford TN-Wilson TN-
250 AM CDT Thu May 9 2024

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT EAST CENTRAL RUTHERFORD...
SOUTHEASTERN WILSON AND NORTHWESTERN CANNON COUNTIES THROUGH 315 AM
CDT...

At 249 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Walterhill, or 7 miles northeast of Murfreesboro, moving east at 25
mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Murfreesboro, Auburntown, Lascassas, Milton, and Readyville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 300 AM CDT for Middle
Tennessee.

&&

LAT...LON 3586 8638 3599 8632 3599 8605 3579 8611
TIME...MOT...LOC 0749Z 275DEG 23KT 3593 8631

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Whitehead

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Nashville TN
303 AM CDT Thu May 9 2024

TNZ058-060-061-075-093>095-090845-
Lawrence TN-Wayne TN-Lewis TN-Bedford TN-Maury TN-Giles TN-
Marshall TN-
303 AM CDT Thu May 9 2024

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN LEWIS...EAST CENTRAL
WAYNE...MARSHALL...LAWRENCE...MAURY...GILES AND SOUTHWESTERN BEDFORD
COUNTIES THROUGH 345 AM CDT...

At 302 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Spring Hill to 7 miles southwest of
Lawrenceburg. Movement was east at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Columbia, Shelbyville, Lewisburg, Lawrenceburg, Pulaski, Mount
Pleasant, Loretto, Summertown, Ardmore, Cornersville, Elkton, Minor
Hill, Ethridge, Lynnville, Henryville, Culleoka, I-65 East Of
Columbia, Belfast, Goodspring, and Leoma.

This includes Interstate 65 between mile markers 1 and 49.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1000 AM CDT for Middle
Tennessee.

&&

LAT...LON 3500 8735 3524 8764 3574 8705 3551 8637
      3536 8649 3537 8659 3533 8660 3531 8668
      3525 8675 3526 8683 3499 8684
TIME...MOT...LOC 0802Z 290DEG 41KT 3567 8693 3520 8745

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Whitehead