Severe Thunderstorm Warning 25, NWS Nashville, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1240 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1211 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024

Humid conditions in place across the area this morning. Temps are in
the 60s and lower 70s. The earlier shower and thunderstorm activity
moved out earlier. We did get some isolated wind damage in our
southwest. Also...isolated 2-4 inch rainfall amounts across
Humphreys and also the Van Buren and Cumberland county areas.

For today, plenty of instability in place. Dynamics are a bit weak
but we should see some isolated to scattered activity fire in the
afternoon. Will need to watch those aforementioned rainfall areas as
a flood advisory or two may be needed. Otherwise, a few strong
storms cannot be ruled out with some high winds and some hail
possible later this afternoon. The convection should calm down for
tonight but the humid and muggy conditions will continue.

On Tuesday, some storms will fire but mainly in the afternoon.
Organization looks rather weak and convection may hinge on outflows
and heating. The slight risk which is in place does appear to be
aligned with Tuesday night when a dissipating frontal boundary
pushes some forcing into our area. Given the humid airmass,
instabilities will remain in play into the overnight hours. The
severe threat will include wind and hail potential.

Wednesday appears to be the biggest severe threat. We are currently
outlooked with an enhanced risk across our northwest. It looks to be
a 2 wave event. The first and weaker wave, will occur Wednesday
afternoon. some weak pre frontal forcing may tap into an
increasingly unstable environment. Mid level Lapse rates and shear
levels will be on the increase. I'd say isolated to scattered severe
storms could impact the mid state as the storms move east
northeastward. Wave #2 appears to be the main event. Models continue
to trend toward later with each run. Though synoptics dont look
classically dramatic, the forcing/instability/shear phasing looks
about as good as it has all spring. Case in point, the omega fields
are well organized and phase with 1500 j/kg cape, -7 showalter
values, 850 mb wind speeds of 45kts, and ml laps rates of 7C to 8C
at 06Z. Damaging winds, large hail, a tornado or two, and heavy
rainfall will all be possible. Those rainfall amounts will average 1-
2 inches for Wednesday/Wednesday night.

For the near term temps, its looking steady state and rather muggy.
Lows in the 60s and highs in the 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Monday)
Issued at 1211 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024

In the extended forecast, the first of 2 fronts will move through
early Thursday. The second will move through Thursday night and
bring some cooler air. A series of northwesterly impulses will bring
off and on showers into the weekend but nothing noteworthy.

Temperatures will cool down behind the Thursday fropas and actually
dip below normal for the weekend. You can look for lows 45 to 55 and
highs generally in the 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1234 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024

VFR/MVFR conditions are expected at airports this afternoon with
VCSH/SHRA/VCTS. Precip will end this evening with VFR conditions
overnight, but a return to MVFR cigs with VCSH is anticipated
Tuesday morning. South to southwest winds gusting to around 20
knots this afternoon will subside and become more southerly
tonight, before increasing again on Tuesday with gusts to around
25 knots.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      67  85  70  86 /  30  40  60  60
Clarksville    66  83  68  84 /  20  50  50  60
Crossville     61  81  64  80 /  50  50  60  70
Columbia       66  84  68  87 /  20  50  60  60
Cookeville     63  81  66  82 /  50  50  60  70
Jamestown      61  81  64  82 /  60  50  60  70
Lawrenceburg   66  83  68  85 /  20  50  60  60
Murfreesboro   65  85  68  87 /  30  50  60  60
Waverly        66  83  66  85 /  20  50  60  60

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....21
AVIATION.....Shamburger

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Nashville TN
347 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0339 PM     Hail             7 ESE Gladeville        36.08N 86.30W
05/06/2024  E0.70 Inch       Wilson             TN   Public

            Social media report.

&&

RRH

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