Severe Thunderstorm Warning 161, NWS Nashville, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
713 PM CDT Sat Aug 17 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 634 PM CDT Sat Aug 17 2024

As of 630pm, there were no storm in Middle Tennessee, but a storm
over far southern KY had sent a nice outflow boundary down toward
Dover and Lafayette. The afternoon has been very hot and very
sunny. Thanks to strong subsidence between storms to our east and
an approaching front to our northwest, the air has dried out
considerably this afternoon with dew points dipping to 60 at BNA
while the temperature surged to 99.

The low dew points have dropped cape values down below 1000 J/kg,
thus no storms and really no clouds. But, a band of much higher
dew points and cape values was upstream ahead of the cold front.
These greater moisture and instability values will slide into
Middle Tennessee over the next couple of hours, and as the front
approaches, scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop. HRRR
shows this and the NAMNest really blows it up along the front. A
few storms could still produce gusty winds and heavy downpours.
Unfortunately, the coverage will be lower than we previously
hoped, so many people wanting some rain will not get it, and it
looks quite dry through the coming week. The best chance this
evening will be across the Upper Cumberland.

The forecast data was recently updated to reflect the hot temps
and low dew points. Also, hourly pops were updated with lower
expected coverage.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Sunday)
Issued at 1033 AM CDT Sat Aug 17 2024

A weak upper trough has come through Middle Tennessee already
this morning, and there's another one positioned to our immediate
west that will come through later on. In addition, a rather
pronounced surface boundary will soon begin inching its way across
the mid state. Already, the instability needed for additional
convection is in place, and the dynamics will be there with the
surface and upper patterns being what they are. Most of Middle
Tennessee remains under a marginal risk of severe storms today &
tonight, with a portion of northeast Middle Tennessee under a
slight risk. So the next several hours may be somewhat busy
weatherwise, but the activity looks to diminish during the
overnight hours, with maybe some lingering cells over the
Cumberland Plateau early Sunday. Temperatures tomorrow will be
several degrees cooler than today owing the air mass change coming
with the fropa.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday Night through next Saturday)
Issued at 1033 AM CDT Sat Aug 17 2024

Rain chances after tomorrow will be virtually nonexistent. High
pressure will dominate our weather pattern next week, with
temperatures hovering below seasonal norms until maybe Friday.
Even looking out to 240 hrs., there is only high pressure. So once
this weekend's active weather system departs the region, we're
headed back into a dry pattern for the foreseeable future.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 713 PM CDT Sat Aug 17 2024

VFR generally thru 18/24Z. CSV obs since 17/1853Z, AMD NOT SKED
removed. Convection moving thru SE/SC KY. Lightning activity
noted, but if SEWD progression continues, low confidence per more
stability across our area to mention prevailing shwrs/tstms,
mentioned only vcnty shwrs. Convection should dissipate by 18/04Z.
MVFR patchy fog formation possible all terminal sites
18/09Z-18/14Z. Shwrs/tstms possible SRB/CSV after 18/18Z, but low
confidence prevailing shwrs/tstms, mentioned only vcnty shwrs.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      72  89  68  86 /  40  20   0   0
Clarksville    69  87  65  84 /  40  10   0   0
Crossville     64  80  61  77 /  50  50  10  10
Columbia       71  90  66  87 /  20  10   0   0
Cookeville     66  80  63  78 /  50  40  10  10
Jamestown      65  79  62  77 /  50  70  20  20
Lawrenceburg   70  89  66  86 /  20  10   0   0
Murfreesboro   70  89  67  86 /  40  20   0   0
Waverly        69  88  66  86 /  30  10   0   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...Rose
LONG TERM....Rose
AVIATION.....JB Wright

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