Severe Thunderstorm Warning 142, NWS Nashville, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1206 PM CDT Tue Jul 30 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1113 AM CDT Tue Jul 30 2024

Pretty quiet across Middle TN as we roll up on forecast time. Some
stability waves are being seen in visible satellite across our
eastern counties and this is likely keeping activity at-bay this
morning. Because of the lack of activity, the Heat Advisory
currently out for about 2/3 of the mid-state is proving to be
worthy. Sticking with the 10 degrees at 10 am mantra, BNA is
looking squarely at an afternoon high of 98 degrees. Coupled with
mid-70s dew points, Heat Index values this afternoon will approach
110 degrees in many areas within the advisory. The next question
is eventual thunderstorms and will we get them. The northwest flow
aloft currently being experienced across the region is easily
showing us why this pattern is so difficult to forecast. Storms
were being shown in our eastern counties first thing this morning
across most of the CAMs last night. All of that ended up well east
of Middle TN. Not much is different at this time. CAMs are all
over the place for this afternoon and evening. Currently, we are
tracking two clusters of storms: first, the one in Illinois and a
second behind it in Iowa. Watching in-situ radar and satellite,
one would surmise that the first cluster may actually miss the
mid-state altogether. For now, will focus afternoon PoPs east of
I-65, in case this early round clips our northeast (northern
Cumberland Plateau) or we see scattered activity ahead of it. The
second round, currently back in Iowa, is being shown in several
CAMs to broach the TN-KY state line in our north after 7 pm this
evening. Not a boat-load of confidence in this occurring, however,
due to the trajectory of the previous two MCSs. For now, will
carry about a 40 PoP into the evening. In either of these two
instances, this afternoon or this evening, any thunderstorms will
carry a damaging wind risk (65+ mph), heavy (and potentially
flooding) rains and as we saw yesterday, a tornado can't be ruled
out. If you have outdoor plans between 1 pm and about midnight,
please remain weather aware.

Well, that covers the next 14 hours. Where do we go from there?
The northwest flow aloft should start breaking down tomorrow
night. This means tomorrow, we could see more of the same. Low-
confidence PoP forecasts, as well as HOT and HUMID air, once
again. Have issued a Heat Advisory for the same region of Middle
TN for Wednesday, but with a low-confidence PoP forecast, any
storms in the afternoon in the advisory area would negate the
crazy heat.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 1113 AM CDT Tue Jul 30 2024

Once the northwest flow ends (hopefully tomorrow night), upper
ridging will start to influence the region a little more. This means
Thursday might actually be the hottest day of the week. Southwest
boundary layer flow may keep us from reaching triple digit mercury
values, but Heat Index values will likely be at least Heat Advisory
level. Will continue with the one-day-at-a-time thinking and see
what Thursday looks like tomorrow. The other thing happening on
Thursday is an upper level low that drags down over the Great Lakes,
which may give us our next batch of weather on Friday and Saturday
as an associated boundary slips into the Ohio and TN Valleys. This
has been depicted for several days now, so I would say some storms
will accompany this boundary, especially with the instability
already in place. Timing is a little suspect right now, but best
guess is sometime Friday afternoon, maybe lasting into early
Saturday morning.

Now for the best part of this forecast: after Saturday, we should
get a break. We should be able to turn the spigot off for at least a
few days and while temperatures will likely remain slightly above
seasonal averages, we may get to dry out through the first part of
next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1200 PM CDT Tue Jul 30 2024

Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop across the region
this afternoon and there may be some additional clusters of
storms tonight into Wednesday morning. Greatest coverage will be
around SRB/CSV this afternoon, so tempo groups will be included.
Other sites BNA/MQY/CKV will have prob30 this afternoon. Storms
will contain gusty winds and torrential downpours with brief
vsbys impacts. Outside the storms, VFR with generally southwest
winds 5-10KT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      78  98  79  99 /  30  20   0  10
Clarksville    77  96  78  97 /  30  10   0  10
Crossville     69  89  71  92 /  30  50  10  20
Columbia       75  97  76  99 /  20  10   0  10
Cookeville     71  90  74  93 /  30  40  10  10
Jamestown      70  89  73  92 /  30  50  10  20
Lawrenceburg   75  95  76  97 /  20  20   0  10
Murfreesboro   75  97  76  99 /  30  20   0  10
Waverly        75  97  76  97 /  20  10   0   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for Bedford-Cheatham-
Davidson-Dickson-Giles-Hickman-Houston-Humphreys-Lawrence-Lewis-
Macon-Marshall-Maury-Montgomery-Perry-Robertson-Rutherford-Smith-
Stewart-Sumner-Trousdale-Wayne-Williamson-Wilson.

Heat Advisory from noon to 7 PM CDT Wednesday for Bedford-
Cheatham-Davidson-Dickson-Giles-Hickman-Houston-Humphreys-
Lawrence-Lewis-Macon-Marshall-Maury-Montgomery-Perry-Robertson-
Rutherford-Smith-Stewart-Sumner-Trousdale-Wayne-Williamson-
Wilson.

&&

SHORT TERM...Unger
LONG TERM....Unger
AVIATION.....13

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