Severe Thunderstorm Warning 127, NWS Nashville, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1241 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Friday Night)
Issued at 1204 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024

An upstream shortwave is poised to move through the area tonight.
PVA in advance of this feature is expected to work into the area
beginning later this afternoon. This will serve to act upon an
increasing area of instability and hence, we will see thunderstorm
development by late this afternoon. We are in a marginal risk for
severe with the primary threat being straight line damaging wind
potential. 850 mb wind speeds are only around 15-20 kts so vertical
storm height/structure will need to be sufficient enough so as to
reach strong to severe levels. Quite a bit of cloud cover in
place now so additional cape increase may be somewhat mitigated.
That said, we do see some current values approaching 2000 j/kg in
our east.

Moving on, a fair deal of moisture will reside into Thursday
morning. We could still see some lingering showers/a few tstms into
the morning hours. Otherwise, heights will be on the increase with
an upper high developing across TX. Westerlies will shift north
leaving a large zone of ridging across the mid and deep south. This
will equate to a marked decrease in pop values with just minimal inclusion
for Thursday night through Friday night.

For the near term temps, the shortwave will be bringing a
welcomed break through Thursday with highs holding in the 80s.
This wont last long though as the aforementioned height increase
takes over and sends us back int the 90s on Friday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 1204 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024

In the extended forecast, the upper high over TX will bring the heat
but it looks as though it will remain to our southwest. This will
allow a weak but entrenched west northwesterly ul flow to
prevail. We might get a boundary through here on Saturday night
which will bring another round of shower and tstm chances with it.
Tough to get boundaries though the area this time of year.
However, the Euro and GFS solutions are both on board with brining
the boundary through. Plenty of instability will welcome the
boundary so keep an eye for Saturday. No outlook as of yet but
that may change.

Moving on, dry weather returns with the surface high to our north
in control. Meanwhile, the upper ridging looks poised to take
over our weather pattern by mid week. Thus, hot and dry weather to
set up.

Those extended temperatures will feature a noticeable variability.
Saturday, ahead of the boundary, it will be quite hot and in the 90s
for most areas. Sunday and Monday will contain a 10 degree cooldown
with that surface high to our north being in control. Then, back up
into the 90s again with the upper ridge returning.

As for the tropics? the Atlantic looks clean for the most part.
There are a couple of disturbances just north of the itcz with only
low probabilities of reaching tropical organization levels.

The 6 to 14 day outlook calls for above normal temps and below
normal precip. Looks like more hot weather is on the way.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1236 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024

VFR conditions the next few hours. A line of scattered showers and
thunderstorms will move into the northwest after 20z and will
continue to push to the east through 04z. IFR/LIFR in
thunderstorms due to low cigs, low vis, and heavy rain. Low cigs
will build in behind the line of showers and thunderstorms with
cigs falling to LIFR overnight. Cigs will start to improve after
15z and should return to VFR by 18z tomorrow. Southerly winds
under 10 knots this afternoon shifting to the north overnight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      72  89  71  94 /  80  20   0  20
Clarksville    70  88  67  92 /  70  10   0  10
Crossville     65  83  65  87 /  60  40  10  30
Columbia       70  88  68  93 /  60  30   0  20
Cookeville     68  84  67  89 /  70  30  10  20
Jamestown      66  83  66  89 /  80  30  10  30
Lawrenceburg   69  87  68  92 /  70  30  10  20
Murfreesboro   71  89  68  94 /  70  20  10  20
Waverly        69  87  67  92 /  70  10   0  10

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....21
AVIATION.....Mueller

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