Flash Flood Warning 34, NWS Nashville, TN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Nashville TN
617 AM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 110 AM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024

The area was definitely in the path of the "MCS Express" over the
last 24 hours as several rounds of thunderstorms including some
damaging winds and very heavy rainfall reports occurred over
Middle Tennessee. For now, things have weakened considerably as
the last complex pushes southeast so think a fairly quiet night is
in store. Hopefully.

Looking at things later today, very similar weather pattern expected
although things look to shift further east with the concentration
over the Cumberland Plateau and East Tennessee. CAMs continue to
have trouble in this northwest flow pattern and tonight's runs are
no different. Once again, thunderstorms with damaging winds and
heavy rainfall can be expected although timing these things have
been quite challenging the last several days. While that MCS
whack-a-mole pattern plays out east, another hot and humid day is
in store for the western two thirds of Middle Tennnessee with
Heat Index Values between 105F-109F once again expected. A Heat
Advisory is in effect so please take precautions and stay weather
aware whether it's the heat or the storms.

For Thursday...some uncertainty remains in the forecast, however,
think most of the area will be in for a very hot and humid day.
Thunderstorm chances are lower than the previous days and a Heat
Advisory will likely need to be continued.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday Night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 110 AM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024

The weather pattern picks up once again Friday/Friday Night as an
upper level impulse and associated boundary makes its way from
the northwest bringing likely the last bit of thunderstorms for a
while. Thunderstorm chances are expected Friday into Saturday with
strong to potentially severe weather chances creeping into the
forecast especially Friday afternoon and night. Damaging winds and
flash flooding continue to be the main threats especially in
areas that have already received several inches of rain over the
last several days.

By Sunday...somewhat "relatively" cooler (can you say that in
early August?) temperatures are expected with dry conditions
behind the last of these thunderstorm complexes. The northwest
flow finally fades but unfortunately this time of year means the
heat is on. Upper ridge begins to build over the region and camp
over the area for much of the first half of August bringing the
heat and humidity.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 612 AM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024

Tentatively thinking KCKV, KMQY, and KBNA have a fairly decent
chance at staying VFR during this 24 hour period. SHRA/TSRA
development should be east of those terminals today possibly
impacting KSRB and KCSV. Did introduce a VCSH for KMQY and KBNA
during the afternoon hours from 21z-00Z. For KSRB and KCSV, timing
the rounds of SHRA/TSRA impacting the terminals today prove to be
quite difficult, but going with 14Z-20Z and 02Z-06Z. These time
frames will be adjusted throughout the day. Once the threat of
storms pass, MVFR ceilings will likely plague KSRB and KCSV
through 12Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      98  79  99  78 /  30  10  10  20
Clarksville    96  78  96  78 /  10  10  20  40
Crossville     88  70  91  72 /  50  10  20  20
Columbia       97  77  99  77 /  10   0  10  10
Cookeville     89  73  92  74 /  40  10  10  20
Jamestown      88  71  91  73 /  70  20  20  30
Lawrenceburg   96  76  97  75 /  10   0  10  10
Murfreesboro   97  77  99  77 /  20  10  10  20
Waverly        97  77  98  76 /  10   0  10  20

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from noon today to 7 PM CDT Thursday for Bedford-
Cheatham-Davidson-Dickson-Giles-Hickman-Houston-Humphreys-
Lawrence-Lewis-Macon-Marshall-Maury-Montgomery-Perry-Robertson-
Rutherford-Smith-Stewart-Sumner-Trousdale-Wayne-Williamson-
Wilson.

&&

SHORT TERM...Hurley
LONG TERM....Hurley
AVIATION.....Hurley