Severe Thunderstorm Warning 3, NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA

175 
WWUS56 KMTR 292233
SVSMTR

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
333 PM PDT Fri Mar 29 2024

CAC053-292300-
/O.CON.KMTR.SV.W.0003.000000T0000Z-240329T2300Z/
Monterey CA-
333 PM PDT Fri Mar 29 2024

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 PM PDT
FOR WEST CENTRAL MONTEREY COUNTY...

At 332 PM PDT, severe thunderstorms were located along the Big Sur 
Coastline, moving east at 20 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Big Sur Village, Carmel Valley Village, San Clemente Dam, Andrew
Molera State Park, Cachagua Near The Los Padres Dam, and Pico Blanco
Campground.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Remain alert for a possible tornado! Tornadoes can develop quickly
from severe thunderstorms. If you spot a tornado go at once into a
small central room in a sturdy structure.

Torrential rainfall is occurring with these storms, and may lead to
flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3623 12179 3623 12181 3625 12183 3628 12185
      3631 12190 3632 12189 3634 12189 3636 12191
      3639 12190 3640 12192 3651 12194 3656 12186
      3649 12166 3633 12160 3621 12175
TIME...MOT...LOC 2232Z 252DEG 17KT 3654 12191 3629 12186 3618 12195 

TORNADO...POSSIBLE
HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...<.75 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

Flynn

818 
WWUS56 KMTR 292248
SVSMTR

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
348 PM PDT Fri Mar 29 2024

CAC053-292300-
/O.CON.KMTR.SV.W.0003.000000T0000Z-240329T2300Z/
Monterey CA-
348 PM PDT Fri Mar 29 2024

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 PM PDT
FOR WEST CENTRAL MONTEREY COUNTY...

At 346 PM PDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from Point Sur to Carmel Valley moving east at 20 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Big Sur Village, Carmel Valley Village, San Clemente Dam, Andrew
Molera State Park, Cachagua Near The Los Padres Dam, and Pico Blanco
Campground.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Remain alert for a possible tornado! Tornadoes can develop quickly
from severe thunderstorms. If you spot a tornado go at once into a
small central room in a sturdy structure.

Torrential rainfall is occurring with these storms, and may lead to
flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3634 12189 3643 12184 3654 12179 3649 12166
      3633 12160 3621 12175 3623 12179 3623 12181
      3625 12183 3628 12185 3631 12190 3632 12189
TIME...MOT...LOC 2246Z 247DEG 19KT 3644 12176 3632 12178 3621 12186 

TORNADO...POSSIBLE
HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...<.75 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

Flynn

917 
WWUS56 KMTR 292256
SVSMTR

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
356 PM PDT Fri Mar 29 2024

CAC053-292306-
/O.EXP.KMTR.SV.W.0003.000000T0000Z-240329T2300Z/
Monterey CA-
356 PM PDT Fri Mar 29 2024

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR WEST CENTRAL MONTEREY COUNTY
WILL EXPIRE AT 400 PM PDT...

The storms which prompted the warning have weakened below severe
limits, and no longer pose an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore, the warning will be allowed to expire.  However, gusty
winds and heavy rain are still possible with these thunderstorms.

&&

LAT...LON 3634 12189 3643 12184 3654 12179 3649 12166
      3633 12160 3621 12175 3623 12179 3623 12181
      3625 12183 3628 12185 3631 12190 3632 12189
TIME...MOT...LOC 2256Z 228DEG 24KT 3648 12171 3636 12173 3625 12181 

$$

Flynn

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
242 PM PDT Fri Mar 29 2024

...New SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 237 PM PDT Fri Mar 29 2024

A low pressure system with gale force winds is located
approximately 250 miles to west of San Francisco. As this system
approaches, it will bring widespread moderate to locally heavy
rain, gusty winds, and a few thunderstorms. Moderate impacts are
anticipated including minor flooding in urban areas and some
potential for tree/power line damage. Remember to stay up to date
on the current forecast and prepare for longer afternoon and
evening commutes.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 237 PM PDT Fri Mar 29 2024

The latest surface analysis from the Weather Prediction Center shows
the low pressure system located approximately 250 miles west of San
Francisco. Radar shows prefrontal widespread moderate to heavy rain
showers have developed ahead of the surface warm front. Showers have
already reached portions of the North Bay and San Francisco
Peninsula with 6 hour rain totals between 0.5-0.9 inches in portions
of the North Bay and Santa Cruz Mountains. These showers will
continue to move inland over the next several hours. The warm front
is expected to pass through the SF Bay Area by the late afternoon
(approximately 4-5 PM).

After warm frontal passage, destabilization is expected to occur
over the marine environment and thunderstorm chances increase
significantly. Model guidance from the HRRR suggests that as the
atmosphere destabilizes over the marine environment, convection will
become more scattered and allow for the development of isolated
stronger thunderstorms. The best window for thunderstorm development
has shifted slightly later from this morning with the best window
(20-35% chance) now occurring between 5PM this evening through 8PM
on Saturday. Current data from SFO and KMUX shows moderate surface
to 6km speed and directional shear, suggesting the formation of a
more favorable environment for thunderstorm development. As a more
strongly sheared and higher CAPE environment develops over the
marine environment, the likelihood of waterspout development
increases so we cannot rule out the potential for a landfalling
waterspout.

Velocity radar data shows widespread winds between 30 to 55 mph
moving onshore with the potential for locally higher winds to
develop due to terrain or shower influences. A Wind Advisory remains
in effect until 5AM Saturday for gusts 50+ mph in the highlands
(elevated interior terrain and coastal mountains) and 45+ mph in the
lowlands. A High Wind Warning is in effect along the Big Sur coast
for gusts up to 60 mph. As these strong, gusty winds move inland
there is increased likelihood of damage to trees and power lines.
Nuisance flooding may occur as heavier showers move through urban
areas but widespread river flooding is not expected.

Remember to stay up to date with the forecast and any
watches/warnings as the system continues to move through our area.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 237 PM PDT Fri Mar 29 2024

Scattered showers will continue Saturday into Sunday with elevated
thunderstorm chances continuing until 8PM on Saturday. While
thunderstorm chances are slightly lower on Saturday (20-25% chance)
than Friday (20-35% chance), cannot rule out the possibility of
isolated strong thunderstorms developing. Given the scattered nature
of these showers, some sunny breaks in between showers may be
possible, but remember to stay weather aware and carry an umbrella
with you in preparation for additional future showers. For
hydrologic concerns, some potential remains for nuisance flooding
overnight Friday into Saturday particularly if stronger showers
move over urban areas.

Showers will start to lighten up throughout the day on Saturday with
light showers expected through early Sunday morning. By Sunday
morning, most showers will have departed the area but a few isolated
light showers (< 0.1 inches) may linger into the early afternoon
hours. Winds will start to relax heading into Sunday as the pressure
gradient weakens. Temperatures will be on the cooler side with highs
in the upper 50's to low 60's and lows mostly in the 40's.

Sunday through Thursday:

High pressure will start to build during the early work week and
bring in drier, warmer weather across the region. Guidance hints
that unsettled weather will return towards the end of the work with
cooler temperatures and some light rain possible.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1120 AM PDT Fri Mar 29 2024

Widespread moderate rain showers are starting to move into the Bay
Area with increasing thunderstorm potential starting late this
afternoon and continuing into Saturday. Moderate rain to continue
through the evening before becoming lighter overnight. Gusty
southeast winds will continue through the TAF period with gusts up
to 35 knots possible. Winds will start to weaken overnight before
stronger winds return for several stations during the morning hours.
For now, CIGs remain VFR but as the rain continues to move inland
MVFR CIGs are expected to develop. Wind shear concerns will increase
throughout the Bay Area this afternoon and continue into the evening.

Vicinity of SFO...VFR to MVFR. Strong, gusty southerly to
southeasterly winds are expected with sustained winds between
15-20 knots and gusts up to 35 knots possible. Ceilings and
visibilities are expected to decrease as moderate showers continue
to move onshore with wind shear and strong SE gusts expected
between 20Z to 02Z. TS chances will increase starting between
01-02Z with increased VCTS potential from 02Z to 07Z. An AWW has
been issued for strong, gusty SE winds from 20Z to 02Z but an
extension may be needed based on how TS develop.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR to MVFR. Widespread light to moderate
rain is approaching the Central Coast which will reduce CIGs and
visibility as showers move over the airport. Gusty SE winds will
develop at MRY by 22Z and have already started at SNS (as of 18Z).
Gusty winds will continue through the late evening for MRY and
through the end of the TAF period for SNS. Given the SE wind
orientation, winds at SNS will be closely monitored as stronger
winds than currently in the TAF may develop. A slight chance of
thunderstorms exists tonight and continues into Saturday morning.

&&

.MARINE...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 1120 AM PDT Fri Mar 29 2024

A strengthening low pressure system over the eastern Pacific
continues to move toward California resulting in southerly gales
and moderate to heavy rain today. Cold, unstable air aloft with
the low will also result in a slight to moderate chance of
thunderstorms later today, tonight and Saturday. Isolated severe
thunderstorms, with increasing potential for hail and a slight
potential for waterspout development, will increase in likelihood
into the afternoon. A high pressure system will build in behind
the  low late in the weekend and early next week bringing drier,
milder conditions to the area.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Wind Advisory until 5 AM PDT Saturday for CAZ006-504-509-510-512-
     514>516-518-528>530.

     Wind Advisory until 3 AM PDT Saturday for CAZ502-503-505.

     High Wind Warning until 9 PM PDT this evening for CAZ517.

     Wind Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 5 AM PDT Saturday for
     CAZ517.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening for SF Bay N of
     Bay Bridge.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PDT this afternoon for Mry Bay.

     Gale Warning until 3 AM PDT Saturday for Mry Bay.

     Gale Warning until 9 PM PDT this evening for Pigeon Pt to Pt
     Pinos 0-10 nm-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt
     Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM-Pt Pinos to Pt
     Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

&&

SHORT TERM...Kennedy
LONG TERM....Kennedy
AVIATION...Kennedy
MARINE...Kennedy

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