Severe Thunderstorm Warning 2, NWS Missoula, MT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
149 PM MDT Wed Jun 26 2024

.DISCUSSION...A cold front is approaching the Northern Rockies
today. Increasing instability and moisture in place will trigger
showers and thunderstorms across the region. Showers and storms
have been virtually non-existent thus far thanks to cloud cover.
However, skies are starting to clear in Idaho. With clearing
skies, we expect scattered showers and storms to begin to light
up the radar late this afternoon and evening. Precipitable waters
around an inch will be conducive for some locally heavy rains,
however storms will be moving pretty fast, so heavy rains will be
of short duration (leading to a lower probability of localized
flash flooding). Any storms that develop will be accompanied by
gusty outflow winds, lightning, and even some hail. Expect wind
gusts of 25-35 mph, though stronger storms may produce local
gusts to around 40 mph.

Showers and a few thunderstorms will continue overnight as the
front moves through the region. Cooler temperatures and unstable
air behind the front Thursday will result in scattered showers
and scattered thunderstorms across the region. It's looking like
precipitation will wrap around the center of the low and bring
rains to the Continental Divide/Glacier NP and into the Northern
Flathead valley Thursday afternoon through Friday morning.
evening. Otherwise, Friday and Saturday will be pleasant days
with temperatures in the 70s to lower 80s with a mix of sun and
clouds.

Sunday and Monday, another short wave will pass through the
region and once again bring scattered showers and thunderstorms to
the region, though it should keep relatively cooler temps in
place, ranging in the 70s to lower 80s.

The rest of Independence week looks pretty dry with the exception
of some showers along the Continental Divide and far Northwest
Montana near the Canadian Border.

As the locals have said for years: "Summer in Montana starts on
July 4th", and it's looking like this year is shaping up that way.
Models are becoming more consistent in showing a strong ridge
across the southwestern U.S. expanding northward into the Northern
Rockies. This scenario looks pretty good for temperatures to
climb into the 90s for the first time this year in several places
across western Montana on July 4th weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...Unstable and moist atmospheric conditions, along with
partial clearing, will lead to the development of shower and
thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Lightning, gusty outflow
winds, and heavy rain are the predominant threats from
thunderstorms, which will affect all terminals through at least
27/0400Z. Nocturnal thunderstorms can be expected to continue
thereafter, with coverage likely impacting KMSO, KGIC, KHRF, and
KBTM. Peripheral storms are possible and may impact KGPI and KSMN
to a lesser extent. Expect nocturnal storms to linger through
roughly 27/1500Z.

&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...&&