High Wind Warning 5, NWS Missoula, MT

168 
WWUS75 KMSO 261802
NPWMSO

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Missoula MT
1002 AM PST Thu Dec 26 2024

IDZ007-261915-
/O.CAN.KMSO.HW.W.0005.000000T0000Z-241226T2000Z/
Orofino/Grangeville Region-
1002 AM PST Thu Dec 26 2024

...HIGH WIND WARNING IS CANCELLED...

The threat has ended. Wind gusts between 35 and 45 mph are still 
possible today.

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
318 AM MST Wed Dec 25 2024

.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGES:

- A parade of weather systems will bring frequent mountain snows
  over the next week.

- Still no significant snow in the forecast for the Bitterroot,
  Missoula, Mission, or Flathead valleys, but rain or melting snow
  could cause icy conditions at night and in the mornings.

A parade of short waves will move through the region in northwest
flow for the next week or so. These will have plenty of moisture
with them, though they will NOT measure up to the atmospheric
river standard. Still, with daytime snow levels remaining between
4,000 and 5,000 ft, the mountains will see quite an increase in
the amount of snow. The mountains of central Idaho will be the
hardest hit with places Dixie, ID picking up between 4 and 10
inches of snow by Monday evening, with 7 inches being the most
likely amount.

The higher snow levels and lack of established cold pools in the
valleys means that most of the larger valleys will either get
shadowed, or down-slope flow, which means less precipitation. And
that precipitation that does come will mainly be in the form light
rain. This causes concern because temperatures do freeze at night,
so any standing water or wet surfaces can ice up pretty easily.

In the longer term, ensembles and long range forecasts continue to
show a trend towards colder weather in January, maybe around the
2nd week or later. However, that hasn't been any consistent signal
for a change. The bottom line is that the models keep showing the
potential for a turn to colder weather in the longer term, but
they haven't been able to lock onto any single event or time frame
for when it will happen yet.

&&

.AVIATION...A trough exiting the region this morning is leaving
some mid level stratus clouds and fresh snow in the mountains. The
valleys of western Montana didn't pick up much moisture recently,
but it's still enough that our main concern for area terminals
over the next 24 hours will be fog and mist. With the cloud cover
remaining in place and a southerly pressure gradient developing
tonight ahead of the next system, chances remain very low that
there will be an extended period of fog impacting any area
terminals.

&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...Winter Weather Advisory from 2 AM to 2 PM MST Thursday for
     Kootenai/Cabinet Region...Lower Clark Fork Region.

     Winter Weather Advisory from 5 AM to 2 PM MST Thursday for
     Bitterroot/Sapphire Mountains.

ID...Winter Weather Advisory from 1 AM to 1 PM PST Thursday for
     Northern Clearwater Mountains...Southern Clearwater
     Mountains.

&&