Severe Thunderstorm Warning 55, NWS Morristown, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
302 AM EDT Thu May 9 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 300 AM EDT Thu May 9 2024

Key Messages:

1. Risk of severe weather remains into the early morning hours. All
hazards remain possible, hail, heavy rain causing flooding, damaging
winds and isolated tornadoes across mainly the southern half of the
area.

2. The highest risk areas early this morning should be from I-40
southward, mainly the southern plateau, Southern Valley and
southwest North Carolina.

3. Heavy rainfall with amounts of an additional 1 to 2 inches will
put western and southern sections in a moderate risk from the
excessive rainfall outlook over the western half of the forecast
area this morning.

Discussion.

At 230 AM EDT the strong evening convection had moved south and
southeast into Georgia and the Carolinas. However the final round of
convection looks like it will push through the area the next 6 hours
06Z and 12Z. The severe threat has diminished but during this last
round a line of thunderstorms has formed over western Tennessee with
other discrete cells out ahead of it moving into middle Tennessee.
The biggest threat area will be the southern plateau and southern TN
Valley where instabilty is highest according to the short term
models. The HRRR still shows this line move rapidly east southeast
between about 08 and 13Z. The current tornado watch will expire at
400 AM EDT for the southern third but a new watch may be put across
the same area. Another big concern will be flooding as most areas
have seen 1.5 to over 3 inches the past 24 hours. An Additional 1 to
2 inches is possible over the southern third of the area as this
line moves through. So flash flooding will be a threat until mid
morning. The Flood Watch will continue until 12Z this morning.
6 hour FFG is generally 1 to 2 inches across the areas that have
received the higher totals and maybe lower with tonight's rainfall.
There are a few isolated areas with FFG as low as low as 0.5" in 6
hours. Showers and storms should generally exit the forecast area
this morning between 12 and 15z. A few showers and isolated storms
may linger through mid afternoon or early evening across northeast
Tennessee and southwest Virginia. Mostly dry conditions are forecast
areawide tonight but some showers may move in before 12z Friday as a
shortwave will move southeast in the northwest flow behind the cold
front.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 300 AM EDT Thu May 9 2024

Key Message:

1. Cooler weather late this week and into the weekend behind the
cold front late THursday.

2. Lingering showers possible Friday with shortwaves moving through
the northwest upper flow. A quick shortwave may bring some showers
and thunderstorms Saturday with the highest chance northern half of
the area.

3. Drier weather expected Sunday and Monday with a gradual warming
trend. Chance of showers increases Tuesday and Wednesday.

Discussion.

Behind the cold front Thursday, cooler and drier air will arrive
across the region within the northwest upper flow. Troughing and
colder air aloft will result in some diurnal convection Friday
afternoon with a limited potential for thunderstorms.

A stronger shortwave is expected to move through the upper level
northwest flow Saturday with scattered showers and thunderstorms
possible Saturday afternoon, with the highest chance for
precipitation across our northern counties through southwest
Virginia.

Ridging begins to build Sunday and Monday with drier weather and a
gradual warming trend into early next week. Chances of rain begin to
return Monday night and Tuesday as an upper low develops over the
southern plains and then moves into the lower Mississippi Valley and
western Tennessee Valley Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 115 AM EDT Thu May 9 2024

VFR conditions at all sites now but anticipate lower ceilings and
visibilities late tonight and early Thursday morning with showers
and thunderstorms continuing to move from west to east across
east TN. Any thunderstorms passing over a terminal could produce
gusty and erratic winds that differ from a more south to southwest
wind. Will have improving conditions by early afternoon Thursday
from north to south as rain moves out. Gusty southwest winds will
begin after the cold front moves through in the afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             86  62  78  52 /  70  10  10   0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  81  59  73  49 /  80  20  30   0
Oak Ridge, TN                       83  58  73  48 /  70  20  30   0
Tri Cities Airport, TN              77  57  69  44 /  80  30  50  10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Flood Watch until 8 AM EDT this morning for Cherokee-Clay.

TN...Flood Watch until 8 AM EDT /7 AM CDT/ this morning for Anderson-
     Bledsoe-Blount Smoky Mountains-Bradley-Campbell-Claiborne-
     Cocke Smoky Mountains-East Polk-Grainger-Hamblen-Hamilton-
     Hancock-Hawkins-Jefferson-Johnson-Knox-Loudon-Marion-McMinn-
     Meigs-Morgan-North Sevier-Northwest Blount-Northwest Carter-
     Northwest Cocke-Northwest Greene-Northwest Monroe-Rhea-
     Roane-Scott TN-Sequatchie-Sevier Smoky Mountains-Southeast
     Carter-Southeast Greene-Southeast Monroe-Sullivan-Unicoi-
     Union-Washington TN-West Polk.

VA...Flood Watch until 8 AM EDT this morning for Lee-Russell-Scott VA-
     Washington VA-Wise.

&&

SHORT TERM...TD
AVIATION...TD

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Morristown TN
226 AM EDT Thu May 9 2024

NCZ060-061-TNZ012>018-035>047-067>074-081>087-098>102-VAZ001-002-
005-006-008-100630-
Cherokee-Clay-Scott TN-Campbell-Claiborne-Hancock-Hawkins-
Sullivan-Johnson-Morgan-Anderson-Union-Grainger-Hamblen-
Northwest Cocke-Cocke Smoky Mountains-Northwest Greene-
Southeast Greene-Washington TN-Unicoi-Northwest Carter-
Southeast Carter-Roane-Loudon-Knox-Jefferson-Northwest Blount-
Blount Smoky Mountains-North Sevier-Sevier Smoky Mountains-
Sequatchie-Bledsoe-Rhea-Meigs-McMinn-Northwest Monroe-
Southeast Monroe-Marion-Hamilton-Bradley-West Polk-East Polk-Lee-
Wise-Scott VA-Russell-Washington VA-
226 AM EDT Thu May 9 2024 /126 AM CDT Thu May 9 2024/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southwest North
Carolina...east Tennessee and southwest Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Additional storms are expected early this morning with some strong
to severe storms possible, especially along the Cumberland Plateau
to southeast Tennessee. The main threat will be damaging winds,
but a brief spin-up tornado can't be ruled out.

Also, flash flooding continues to be the greatest concern as an
additional 1 to 2 inches of rain is expected on top of what has
already fallen. The storms will clear out of the area by mid-
morning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter reports are welcome for the rest of the morning.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Morristown TN
228 AM EDT Thu May 9 2024

TNZ081-084-099-100-090715-
Sequatchie TN-Bradley TN-Hamilton TN-Meigs TN-
228 AM EDT Thu May 9 2024

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN BRADLEY...
SOUTHWESTERN MEIGS...SOUTHEASTERN SEQUATCHIE AND NORTHEASTERN
HAMILTON COUNTIES THROUGH 315 AM EDT/215 AM CDT/...

At 227 AM EDT/127 AM CDT/, Doppler radar was tracking a strong
thunderstorm near Fairmount, or 7 miles south of Dunlap, moving east
at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Cleveland, Dunlap, Soddy-Daisy, Lakesite, Cartwright, Flat Top
Mountain, North Chickamauga Creek Gorge, Hopewell, Big Spring, and
Sale Creek.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 400 AM EDT/300 AM CDT/ for
east Tennessee.

&&

LAT...LON 3521 8540 3526 8544 3528 8549 3534 8551
      3538 8526 3536 8523 3539 8520 3544 8485
      3539 8484 3535 8486 3534 8483 3518 8481
TIME...MOT...LOC 0627Z 265DEG 32KT 3526 8535

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

DH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Morristown TN
430 AM EDT Thu May 9 2024

TNZ067>069-082>084-086-090930-
Rhea TN-Bledsoe TN-Northwest Monroe TN-Roane TN-Loudon TN-Knox TN-
Meigs TN-
430 AM EDT Thu May 9 2024

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN RHEA...LOUDON...
NORTHEASTERN MEIGS...NORTHERN BLEDSOE...SOUTHWESTERN KNOX...
NORTHWESTERN MONROE AND ROANE COUNTIES THROUGH 530 AM EDT/430 AM
CDT/...

At 430 AM EDT/330 AM CDT/, Doppler radar was tracking a strong
thunderstorm 10 miles west of Spring City, or 12 miles northeast of
Pikeville, moving east at 60 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Oak Ridge, Lenoir City, Kingston, Sweetwater, Rockwood, Loudon,
Farragut, Fairview, Spring City, and Midtown.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3572 8526 3577 8525 3577 8504 3575 8503
      3576 8492 3583 8477 3589 8471 3591 8414
      3580 8414 3581 8417 3577 8418 3576 8415
      3571 8417 3564 8414 3561 8418 3562 8452
      3565 8459 3562 8464 3564 8534
TIME...MOT...LOC 0830Z 267DEG 52KT 3574 8505

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

DH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Morristown TN
557 AM EDT Thu May 9 2024

TNZ072-085>087-091045-
Blount Smoky Mountains TN-Northwest Monroe TN-Southeast Monroe TN-
McMinn TN-
557 AM EDT Thu May 9 2024

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN MCMINN...SOUTH
CENTRAL BLOUNT AND MONROE COUNTIES THROUGH 645 AM EDT...

At 557 AM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Madisonville, moving east at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Athens, Sweetwater, Madisonville, Smoky Mountains-Twentymile Creek,
Englewood, Vonore, Tellico Plains, Niota, Fort Loudon State Park, and
Tariffville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3543 8458 3562 8455 3561 8452 3562 8452
      3559 8415 3558 8413 3558 8411 3554 8409
      3555 8401 3557 8399 3556 8382 3552 8383
      3552 8388 3547 8392 3546 8396 3541 8402
      3537 8401 3535 8404 3533 8403
TIME...MOT...LOC 0957Z 277DEG 34KT 3550 8447

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

DH

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