Severe Thunderstorm Warning 101, NWS Morristown, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
117 AM EDT Mon May 27 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 106 AM EDT Mon May 27 2024

Currently a line of severe thunderstorms is moving through Middle TN
and central KY. Ahead of the line the biggest concern will be the
possibilty of some isolated cells developing into an more untapped
environment across the southern Valley. This area has not been
worked over/stabilized from the afternoon/evening convection and dew
points and instability remain elevated south of Interstate 40.
Special soundings launched this evening show a fairly capped
environment at observation, but if storms break the cap they'll have
ample instability and shear to tap into with the aid of the strong
southwest LLJ. These discrete cells ahead of the main line would
likely have the greatest chance to strengthen into supercells
capable of all types of severe weather including tornadoes.
Eventually the main line should catch up with any developed
supercells and overtake them.

The main line will quickly move through the area, likely going from
the Cumberland Plateau and then being east of the Appalachians within
a 5 hour window overnight tonight. The primary threat with this main
line will be damaging straight line winds up to 70mph, hail the size
of a quarter, and a quick tornado spin up is possible within notches
of the primary line. In addition the flood risk remains elevated as
we've seen pockets of 1-3 inches of rain during the
afternoon/evening convection. Areas north of Interstate 40 have seen
the most widespread and heaviest precipitation, meaning that these
locations are most primed to see additional flooding of low lying
areas, but the flood risk is still present area-wide.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 106 AM EDT Mon May 27 2024

Key Messages:

1. Another round of afternoon/evening storms possible on Monday

2. Drier and cooler weather to begin Tuesday through the end of the
week. with a gradual warming trend into the weekend.

Discussion:

Monday afternoon/evening will see one more round of more isolated
thunderstorms over the southern Appalachian region as a weaker
shortwave traverses the base of the larger trough. The biggest
question will be how much clearing and destabilization occurs during
the daytime on Monday, which would create an unstable atmosphere for
the afternoon storms to tap into. As of this writing the main line
has not moved through overnight, so there is still much uncertainty
on the cloud coverage behind it. At this point the strongest storms
could bring with them strong straight line winds and hail as the
primary threats. And after the heavy rains overnight the flooding
threat will remain for low lying areas that got several rounds on
Sunday.

After Monday we'll make a turn for drier and cooler weather for much
of the rest of the work week. We'll sit underneath some broad
troughing over the eastern third of the United States, helping to
keep temperatures at or below seasonal normals into the weekend.
Over the weekend strong ridging begins to build in ahead of an
approaching system over the northern plains. We'll have some shower
and thunderstorm chances in the forecast for the weekend, but there
is still much uncertainty with regards to how far east storms are
able to push into the ridge at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 106 AM EDT Mon May 27 2024

We are still expecting a squall line to move through the region
late tonight/early morning hours. Gusty winds are likely along the
leading edge of the storms. Moderate rain and thunder will
continue after the worst of the storms move through. Monday
morning storms and rain will be moving out. MVFR CIGs will lift
by late morning or early afternoon and westerly winds will be a
tad gusty.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             87  63  86  62 /  50   0   0   0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  82  61  81  59 /  70  10  10   0
Oak Ridge, TN                       82  60  82  58 /  60   0  10   0
Tri Cities Airport, TN              80  59  77  55 /  80  10  10   0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...
AVIATION...McD

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Morristown TN
1000 PM EDT Sun May 26 2024

NCZ060-061-TNZ012>018-035>047-067>074-081>087-098>102-VAZ001-002-
005-006-008-280200-
Cherokee-Clay-Scott TN-Campbell-Claiborne-Hancock-Hawkins-
Sullivan-Johnson-Morgan-Anderson-Union-Grainger-Hamblen-
Northwest Cocke-Cocke Smoky Mountains-Northwest Greene-
Southeast Greene-Washington TN-Unicoi-Northwest Carter-
Southeast Carter-Roane-Loudon-Knox-Jefferson-Northwest Blount-
Blount Smoky Mountains-North Sevier-Sevier Smoky Mountains-
Sequatchie-Bledsoe-Rhea-Meigs-McMinn-Northwest Monroe-
Southeast Monroe-Marion-Hamilton-Bradley-West Polk-East Polk-Lee-
Wise-Scott VA-Russell-Washington VA-
1000 PM EDT Sun May 26 2024 /900 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southwest North
Carolina...east Tennessee and southwest Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Another round of severe storms is expected later tonight into the
early morning, likely between 2 AM and 8 AM. These storms will be
capable of producing damaging wind gusts, large hail, and
isolated tornadoes. This threat is highest along and west of
Interstate 75.

In addition, repeated or prolonged periods of heavy rainfall may
produce localized flooding especially across northern sections.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will be needed through this evening and
overnight tonight.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Morristown TN
250 AM EDT Mon May 27 2024

TNZ013-036-037-069-270730-
Anderson TN-Union TN-Campbell TN-Knox TN-
250 AM EDT Mon May 27 2024

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT ANDERSON...NORTHEASTERN KNOX...
SOUTHERN CAMPBELL AND UNION COUNTIES THROUGH 330 AM EDT...

At 250 AM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Clinton, moving east at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Knoxville, Oak Ridge, Clinton, La Follette, Maynardville, Oliver
Springs, Plainview, Jacksboro, Caryville, and Halls.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 600 AM EDT for east
Tennessee.

&&

LAT...LON 3633 8368 3629 8368 3626 8370 3625 8369
      3601 8380 3606 8435 3610 8438 3611 8442
      3613 8443 3640 8413
TIME...MOT...LOC 0650Z 278DEG 29KT 3618 8419

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

19

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Morristown TN
314 AM EDT Mon May 27 2024

TNZ036-067>069-071-072-083-270800-
Rhea TN-Anderson TN-Blount Smoky Mountains TN-Roane TN-Loudon TN-
Knox TN-NW Blount TN-
314 AM EDT Mon May 27 2024

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN RHEA...LOUDON...
SOUTH CENTRAL ANDERSON...SOUTHERN KNOX...NORTHERN BLOUNT AND ROANE
COUNTIES THROUGH 400 AM EDT...

At 314 AM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a cluster of strong
thunderstorms near Kingston, moving east at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Knoxville, Oak Ridge, Maryville, Lenoir City, Alcoa, Kingston,
Rockwood, Loudon, Farragut, and Fairview.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 600 AM EDT for east
Tennessee.

&&

LAT...LON 3577 8491 3583 8477 3590 8471 3595 8460
      3595 8456 3597 8455 3600 8442 3595 8371
      3593 8372 3589 8379 3582 8376 3559 8384
TIME...MOT...LOC 0714Z 281DEG 40KT 3582 8451

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

19

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