Severe Thunderstorm Warning 21, NWS Marquette, MI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
129 PM EDT Thu Jun 13 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Gusty northwest winds are expected today along with additional
  chances for isolated showers and thunderstorms. There is a
  marginal risk (category 1/5) of severe weather for most of the
  UP, with the main threats being large hail in excess of an
  inch and damaging winds in excess of 60 mph.

- Dry Friday and early Saturday before the return of showers and
  thunderstorms later in the weekend.

- Warmer than normal temperatures frequent the forecast, with
  some areas approaching 90 for highs by next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON/...
Issued at 514 AM EDT Thu Jun 13 2024

RAP analysis shows a mid level trough over southern Manitoba with a
weak low pressure trough at 1004 mb extending over Lake Superior and
into the UP. A cold front drapes from western lake superior
northeast into northern Ontario. Showers and lingering thunderstorms
have almost made their way out of the UP, but dry weather is
expected within the next hour as PVA diminishes and this sfc low
pressure trough slowly moves east this morning.

This dry period is only expected to be brief as mid level trough
rotates east through northern Ontario, sending a stream of vorticity
south across the UP today. As the sfc low pressure trough progresses
east toward Quebec, it deepens and brings the cold front eastward
across the UP through early this afternoon. CAMs do not have the
greatest agreement on the timing of shower and storm activity today,
but there does seem to be a consensus on two periods. The first one
being a round progressing east across the UP with the cold front.
The second period would be more PVA forced in the later part of the
afternoon. The marginal risk for much of the UP seems appropriate
for today as neither of these rounds is a home run. Bulk shear of
~50 kts will be sufficient for storms throughout the day, but the
best instability (6/13 0z HREF mean SBCAPE to around 1000 J/kg) is
expected in the earlier part of the afternoon ahead of mid level
lapse rates increasing to near 7C/km. That said, some isolated
stronger to severe storms are possible. If any severe storms are
able to develop (5% chance), the main threats will be hail and winds.

CAA and drier air behind the cold front will allow for some good
mixing resulting in some gusty northwest winds. While the 6/13 0z
HREF indicates only a 40-60% chance of wind gusts exceeding 30 mph,
model soundings do indicate the potential for isolated gusts as high
as 40 to even 50 mph. These gusts are not expected to be
consistently high enough for an advisory, but it will still be a
gusty day. Highs for the most part are expected in the 70s with the
south central UP being warmer in the low to mid 80s. The other
exception to highs in the 70s would be those near Lake Superior
which may only see highs in the 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 547 AM EDT Thu Jun 13 2024

After a few lingering showers/thunderstorms (far south) this
evening, high pressure will strengthen over Upper Michigan. This
will bring a lull to the active weather and dry conditions for a
bit. Meanwhile though, focus will be on a potent cutoff low over the
Pacific Northwest and the potential for several rounds of showers
and thunderstorms through the weekend/next week ahead and with it.
With multiple lifting mechanisms in the pattern, there will still be
much ambiguity in regard to timing and strength of storms.  The
first round, though, is expected to arrive late Saturday as a wave
approaches just ahead of a surface low centered over central
Manitoba.  This disturbance will help to transport moisture from the
Gulf and strong WAA ahead of the aforementioned cutoff and surface
lows.  And, early indications are trending toward a cold front
moving through this environment on Sunday.

Again, it is still tough to pinpoint the details of the dynamics,
but one thing for certain is that there will be a strong warming
trend through next week. And, this hints at some unstable
environments in place until the timing of the dynamics come into
better agreement.  Temperatures will already start out above normal
on Friday with highs climbing into the low to mid 70s.  And, the
trend will continue through the weekend with mid to upper 70s and
finally mid to upper 80s across portions of the interior by Monday
and through the week.  So, overall a warm and wetter pattern
throughout the extended period.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 129 PM EDT Thu Jun 13 2024

VFR conditions continue across KIWD and KSAW over the next 24 hours,
while KCMX eventually has the low-level stratus leave by the mid-
afternoon. We may see some upslope fog/low-level stratus return over
KCMX late tonight via fog from Lake Superior. Gusty winds are
expected across the TAF sites this afternoon ahead of an incoming
cold front.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 324 AM EDT Thu Jun 13 2024

Southwesterly winds will become west-northwesterly and increase
behind a cold front later this morning with gusts of 20 to 25 knots.
By Friday, winds will return to less than 20 knots with the return
of high pressure where they will stay until early Sunday morning. At
that point, the next cold front will bring southerly winds of 20 to
25 knots along with 4 to 5 foot waves along the US/Canada border on
Lake Superior.  In addition, thunderstorm chances will return to the
forecast, but it is too early to determine severity.

&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.

&&

SHORT TERM...Jablonski
LONG TERM...TDUD
AVIATION...TAP
MARINE...TDUD

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Marquette MI
533 AM EDT Thu Jun 13 2024

MIZ001>007-009>014-084-085-140945-
Keweenaw-Ontonagon-Northern Houghton-Baraga-Marquette-Alger-Luce-
Gogebic-Iron-Dickinson-Menominee-Delta-Southern Schoolcraft-
Southern Houghton-Northern Schoolcraft-
533 AM EDT Thu Jun 13 2024 /433 AM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central Upper
Michigan and western Upper Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Isolated thunderstorms are possible (40% chance), mainly this
afternoon. There is a marginal risk (category 1/5) of severe
weather for most of Upper Michigan save for the far west, with
the main threats being large hail in excess of an inch and
damaging winds in excess of 60 mph.

Moderate swim risk is expected at Marquette, Alger, and southern
Schoolcraft county beaches today.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

There is a chance of thunderstorms on Sunday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

The need for weather spotter reports is not anticipated at this
time.

LSZ162-240>251-263>267-140945-
Lake Superior west of a line from Saxon Harbor WI to Grand
Portage MN beyond 5NM-Saxon Harbor WI to Black River MI-
Black River to Ontonagon MI-
Ontonagon to Upper Entrance of Portage Canal MI-
Upper Entrance of Portage Canal to Eagle River MI-
Eagle River to Manitou Island MI-
Manitou Island to Point Isabelle MI-
Point Isabelle to Lower Entrance of Portage Canal MI-
Lower Entrance of Portage Canal To Huron Islands MI Including
Keweenaw and Huron Bays-Huron Islands to Marquette MI-
Marquette to Munising MI-Munising to Grand Marais MI-
Grand Marais to Whitefish Point MI-
Lake Superior from Saxon Harbor WI to Upper Entrance to Portage
Canal MI 5NM off shore to the US/Canadian border including Isle
Royale National Park-
Lake Superior from Upper Entrance to Portage Canal to Manitou
Island MI 5NM off shore to the US/Canadian Border-
Lake Superior West of Line from Manitou Island to Marquette MI
Beyond 5NM from shore-
Lake Superior East of a line from Manitou Island to Marquette MI
and West of a line from Grand Marais MI to the US/Canadian Border
Beyond 5NM from shore-
Lake Superior from Grand Marais MI to Whitefish Point MI 5NM off
shore to the US/Canadian border-
533 AM EDT Thu Jun 13 2024 /433 AM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Central Lake
Superior...Eastern Lake Superior and Western Lake Superior.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Isolated thunderstorms are possible (40% chance), mainly this
afternoon over the east half of the lake. There is a marginal risk
(category 1/5) of severe weather, with the main threats being
large hail in excess of an inch and damaging winds in excess of 50
kts.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

There is a chance of thunderstorms on Sunday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

The need for weather spotter reports is not anticipated at this
time.

LMZ221-248-250-140945-
Green Bay North of line from Cedar River MI to Rock Island
Passage-Seul Choix Point to Point Detour MI-
5NM East of a line from Fairport MI to Rock Island Passage-
533 AM EDT Thu Jun 13 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Northern Lake
Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Isolated thunderstorms are possible (40% chance), mainly this
afternoon. There is a marginal risk (category 1/5) of severe
weather, with the main threats being large hail in excess of an
inch and damaging winds in excess of 50 kts.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

There is a chance of thunderstorms on Sunday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

The need for weather spotter reports is not anticipated at this
time.

Jablonski

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Marquette MI
1253 PM EDT Thu Jun 13 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1243 PM     Hail             1 SE Trowbridge Park    46.55N 87.42W
06/13/2024  E1.00 Inch       Marquette          MI   Broadcast Media

            Quarter sized hail reported near West
            Washington Street and south McClellan Ave.
            in Marquette.

&&

JSS

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Marquette MI
1256 PM EDT Thu Jun 13 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1246 PM     Hail             2 WSW Trowbridge Park   46.55N 87.47W
06/13/2024  M0.70 Inch       Marquette          MI   NWS Employee

            Observed pea to dime size hail along
            Brickyard Road in Marquette Township.

&&

JSS

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Marquette MI
1257 PM EDT Thu Jun 13 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1250 PM     Hail             1 SW Marquette          46.54N 87.42W
06/13/2024  E1.00 Inch       Marquette          MI   Public

            Report from mPING: Quarter (1.00 in.).

&&

JSS

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Marquette MI
101 PM EDT Thu Jun 13 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1246 PM     Hail             4 NE Negaunee           46.53N 87.55W
06/13/2024  M1.00 Inch       Marquette          MI   Official NWS Obs

            Observed and measured dime to quarter size
            hail at WFO Marquette in Negaunee Township.

&&

JSS

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Marquette MI
110 PM EDT Thu Jun 13 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1254 PM     Non-Tstm Wnd Gst 1 ESE Trout Creek       46.48N 88.99W
06/13/2024  M35 MPH          Houghton           MI   Mesonet

            Mesonet station MC028 Trout Creek MDOT.

&&

JSS

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Marquette MI
129 PM EDT Thu Jun 13 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0127 PM     Hail             2 N Eben Junction       46.38N 86.97W
06/13/2024  M0.70 Inch       Alger              MI   Public

            Pea to dime size hail observed just to the
            north of Eben.

&&

JSS