Special Weather Statement, NWS Twin Cities, MN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
236 AM CDT Tue Aug 27 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Another round of thunderstorms is expected early this morning.
  The severe risk is expected to be limited, but a few severe
  storms are still possible.

- Cooler the rest of this week, with the next chance for showers
  and thunderstorms expected Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 236 AM CDT Tue Aug 27 2024

The next round of thunderstorms is ongoing across southwestern
MN. These storms are expected to track east northeast along a
moisture and instability gradient through the early morning.
Some severe risk will exist given 2000 J/kg MUCAPE and 30-40 kts
of effective shear. A stable boundary layer may limit the wind
threat and so far cores have not exhibited much of a large hail
threat either. Therefore, isolated instances of severe weather
are possible during the next several hours and we are not
anticipating a repeat of the well-organized MCS from Monday
evening.

Following this morning's activity, additional organized
complexes are not anticipated for the rest of the day. There
may be some isolated or scattered cells that develop across
central MN and western WI this afternoon and evening as the
shortwave trough axis passes through. Deep layer shear is good,
and a pocket of steeper mid level lapse rates (7-7.5 C/km) will
be passing overhead mid afternoon. Boundary layer flow is weak
enough that we won't be advecting much drier air in and dew
points may still be near 70 in east central MN and west central
WI. Therefore, a few stronger storms can't be ruled out.

High pressure will build south to north of the Great Lakes
Wednesday. This will bring drier air in for a time, but the next
feature to watch is a rather potent trough tracking along the
US/Canada border Wednesday night and Thursday. Return flow will
draw deeper moisture back northward Thursday ahead of a cold
front. Pwats could return to near 2 inches by afternoon.
Forcing/convergence along the cold front is better than we've
seen recently. A band of showers and thunderstorms is expected
to develop and push through the area Thursday afternoon and
Thursday night.

Cooler and drier air will then persist through Labor Day
weekend, especially following the passage of a secondary front
Saturday night. Lows in the 40s are possible Sunday night with
highs in the upper 60s to low 70s Labor Day.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1220 AM CDT Tue Aug 27 2024

Kept most of the previous TAF intact as the timing still lines
up with the recent CAMs as another line of thunderstorms is
approaching western Minnesota right now. TEMPO groups within
each TAF should be the approximate timing tracked by current
storm motion. Besides the TSRA potential, MVFR CIGS are
prevalent from stratus and fog and will slowly lift throughout
the day after the storms move through. Right now the expectation
is to main VFR CIGS through the end of the period but see a
return to MVFR by 12z Wednesday.

KMSP...The 2nd round of TSRA is not expected to be as strong as
what went through earlier this evening, however gusts exceeding
50kts are possible should they be severe. The better chance for
severe right now looks to stay south of MSP from MKT to I-90.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...MVFR/BR early, then VFR. Wind N to NE 5kts.
THU...MVFR/IFR, SHRA/-TSRA likely. Wind SW 10kts.
FRI...VFR. Wind W 5-10kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...Borghoff
AVIATION...TDH

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
311 AM CDT Tue Aug 27 2024

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-
280815-
Douglas-Todd-Morrison-Mille Lacs-Kanabec-Stevens-Pope-Stearns-
Benton-Sherburne-Isanti-Chisago-Lac Qui Parle-Swift-Chippewa-
Kandiyohi-Meeker-Wright-Hennepin-Anoka-Ramsey-Washington-
Yellow Medicine-Renville-McLeod-Sibley-Carver-Scott-Dakota-
Redwood-Brown-Nicollet-Le Sueur-Rice-Goodhue-Watonwan-Blue Earth-
Waseca-Steele-Martin-Faribault-Freeborn-Polk-Barron-Rusk-
St. Croix-Pierce-Dunn-Pepin-Eau Claire-
311 AM CDT Tue Aug 27 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central and
southern Minnesota, and west central Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

A few strong to severe storms are expected to move through the
area this morning, followed by further scattered showers and
storms through the afternoon.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN spotter activation may be needed.

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Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1109 PM CDT Mon Aug 26 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0645 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     2 NNW New Germany       44.91N 93.99W
08/26/2024  M59 MPH          Carver             MN   Mesonet

            Mesonet station MN022 T.h.7 - New Germany -
            Mp 161.

0709 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     2 SW Eden Prairie       44.83N 93.47W
08/26/2024  M63 MPH          Hennepin           MN   ASOS

            ASOS station KFCM Eden Prairie AP.

0735 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     1 N St. Paul            44.97N 93.09W
08/26/2024  M60 MPH          Ramsey             MN   Mesonet

            Mesonet station MN089 I-35e - Cayuga St
            Bridge Mp 46.

0752 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     2 E Richfield           44.88N 93.23W
08/26/2024  M55 MPH          Hennepin           MN   ASOS

            ASOS station KMSP Minneapolis-St. Paul AP.

0753 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     2 ESE St. Paul          44.93N 93.05W
08/26/2024  M56 MPH          Ramsey             MN   ASOS

            ASOS station KSTP St. Paul Dwtn AP.

0755 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     Osceola                 45.32N 92.70W
08/26/2024  M55 MPH          Polk               WI   AWOS

            AWOS station KOEO Osceola AP.

1007 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     2 ESE Porcupine         44.58N 92.07W
08/26/2024  M59 MPH          Pepin              WI   Mesonet

            Mesonet station TT569 Ganoe Hill.

&&

Borghoff

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1223 AM CDT Tue Aug 27 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0900 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     Chetek                  45.32N 91.65W
08/26/2024                   Barron             WI   Fire Dept/Rescue

            Multiple trees and power lines down. Time
            estimated from radar.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
319 AM CDT Tue Aug 27 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0255 AM     Tstm Wnd Gst     4 S Granite Falls       44.75N 95.55W
08/27/2024  M53 MPH          Yellow Medicine    MN   AWOS

            AWOS station KGDB Granite Falls AP.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
340 AM CDT Tue Aug 27 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0635 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     2 ENE Hamburg           44.74N 93.93W
08/26/2024                   Carver             MN   Public

            Trees and power lines down. Time estimated
            from radar.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
407 AM CDT Tue Aug 27 2024

MNZ065>067-073>075-270945-
Brown MN-McLeod MN-Sibley MN-Renville MN-Nicollet MN-Redwood MN-
407 AM CDT Tue Aug 27 2024

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT WESTERN SIBLEY...EAST CENTRAL
REDWOOD...SOUTHWESTERN MCLEOD...EASTERN BROWN...SOUTHEASTERN RENVILLE
AND NICOLLET COUNTIES THROUGH 445 AM CDT...

At 406 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Franklin to 7 miles northwest of Hanska.
Movement was northeast at 55 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Strong thunderstorms will be near...
  New Ulm and Fairfax around 410 AM CDT.
  Gibbon around 415 AM CDT.
  Lafayette around 420 AM CDT.
  Winthrop and Stewart around 425 AM CDT.
  Gaylord around 430 AM CDT.
  Brownton around 435 AM CDT.

Other locations impacted by these storms include Klossner, Essig, St
George, Fort Ridgely State Park, Fernando, New Ulm Airport, Searles,
New Sweden, Norseland, and Flandrau State Park.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4451 9497 4479 9440 4439 9397 4424 9432
      4426 9436 4422 9437 4413 9459
TIME...MOT...LOC 0906Z 231DEG 48KT 4450 9484 4423 9458

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Borghoff