Special Weather Statement, NWS Twin Cities, MN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
253 PM CDT Mon Aug 5 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Widespread rain today with most seeing over an inch of rain.
  Locally heavy totals of over 2 inches possible, especially
  from eastern Minnesota into western Wisconsin.

- Thunderstorms more likely across southern Minnesota with a few
  stronger storms possible with a conditional severe threat.

- Cooler, highs in the 70 for much of this week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 250 PM CDT Mon Aug 5 2024

This afternoon and tonight...A soggy afternoon continues across
much of MN and western WI. So far, interpolated 24 hour
rainfall analysis shows that at least 1 to 2.5 inches of precip
has fallen across areas from Alexandria to the eastern Twin
Cities Metro. Rain and embedded thunderstorms are expected to
continue this afternoon into this evening. This is all a result
from low pressure which is currently located over eastern SD
trekking south- southeastward into northern Iowa over the next
several hours. The current setup of this system continues to
mimic a winter- storm like setup featuring a 30kt 850 mb LLJ and
a stationary boundary draped across the MN/IA border. Strongest
frontogenesis is occurring in the northeastern quadrant hence
the banded precip on radar. Current satellite shows that much of
the northern plains is plagued with low-level stratus, however
some sunshine is trying to sneak through across southern MN
which remains our target for conditional severe weather this
afternoon. As the aforementioned low in SD moves east, effective
bulk sheer increases to 50-60 kts coupled with surface based
instability ranging between 1000-2000 J/kg. Latest trends in the
hi-res guidance have trended northward with the surface based
CAPE however not much change in the theta-e boundary. Thus best
confidence for any storms to become organized and severe would
be across southern MN this evening. Considering today's
environment, the high amount of bulk-shear will not take much to
get storms rotating, meaning a tornado cannot be ruled out.
Otherwise large hail and damaging wind gusts are the primary
threats. As for flooding impacts, soil saturation has been
forgiving thus far with this event. However high PWATs nearing
1.7" will allow for rainfall to be heavy at times and could lead
to localized flooding in urban and low-lying areas. HREF PMM
still holding confidence of a swath of 2-3 inches of rainfall
across west-central MN into southeastern MN. In the end, today's
CI really comes down to is how much development can get going
off of the boundary located near the MN/IA border.

Tuesday through Sunday...Once this system moves to our south and
east, PoPs will quickly become suppressed before sunrise Tuesday.
High pressure along with subsidence and northwesterly flow will
drive cloud cover southward and bring back the sunshine. Forecasted
highs will reach only the mid 70s and dew points return the 50s.
This pattern will remain in place for much of the week. A shortwave
does look to pester the forecast late Wednesday into Thursday
although highest PoPs remain across northern MN and WI. Another
system arrives over the weekend however based off of diverging
solutions. Keeping only slight chc mentions in the grids for now
until confidence is gained amongst ensemble membership.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1223 PM CDT Mon Aug 5 2024

MVFR/IFR conditions are expected through late this evening with
showers and thunderstorms moving across the region. The highest
chances for -TSRA will exist from roughly 22z through 04z, but
lower cigs will hang around through tomorrow morning. Winds will
be northeasterly and breezy at times before diminishing
overnight.

KMSP...As mentioned above, the -TSRA chances are greatest after
21-22z this afternoon through 03z or so. Northeast winds could
gust as high as 25kts during this time. VFR conditions return by
Tuesday morning.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR. Wind NE 5-10 kts.
WED...VFR/-SHRA, chc -TSRA. Wind S 5-10 kts.
THU...VFR. Wind NW 10-15 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...Flood Watch from 7 PM CDT this evening through Tuesday morning
     for Dakota-Goodhue-Rice.
WI...Flood Watch from 7 PM CDT this evening through Tuesday morning
     for Eau Claire-Pepin-Pierce.

&&

DISCUSSION...Dunleavy
AVIATION...Dye

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
230 PM CDT Mon Aug 5 2024

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-
061930-
Douglas-Todd-Morrison-Mille Lacs-Kanabec-Stevens-Pope-Stearns-
Benton-Sherburne-Isanti-Chisago-Lac Qui Parle-Swift-Chippewa-
Kandiyohi-Meeker-Wright-Hennepin-Anoka-Ramsey-Washington-
Yellow Medicine-Renville-McLeod-Sibley-Carver-Scott-Dakota-
Redwood-Brown-Nicollet-Le Sueur-Rice-Goodhue-Watonwan-Blue Earth-
Waseca-Steele-Martin-Faribault-Freeborn-Polk-Barron-Rusk-
St. Croix-Pierce-Dunn-Pepin-Eau Claire-
230 PM CDT Mon Aug 5 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central and
southern Minnesota, and west central Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

An additional 1 to 2 inches of rain through tonight.

Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon. A
few strong to severe storms could produce gusty winds and large
hail across southern Minnesota.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN spotter activation may be needed, and rainfall reports
are appreciated.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
716 PM CDT Mon Aug 5 2024

MNZ063-WIZ023-060045-
Washington MN-St. Croix WI-
716 PM CDT Mon Aug 5 2024

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT EAST CENTRAL WASHINGTON AND
CENTRAL ST. CROIX COUNTIES THROUGH 745 PM CDT...

At 716 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Bayport, or 14 miles northwest of River Falls, moving east at 50 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Woodbury, Stillwater, Hudson, New Richmond, Lake Elmo, North Hudson,
Bayport, Afton, Somerset, Baldwin, Roberts, and Oak Park Heights.

This includes Interstate 94 in Wisconsin between mile markers 1 and
8.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4493 9288 4509 9294 4521 9232 4500 9224
TIME...MOT...LOC 0016Z 255DEG 44KT 4502 9281

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

RMD

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
725 PM CDT Mon Aug 5 2024

MNZ063-070-WIZ023-024-060100-
Washington MN-Dakota MN-Pierce WI-St. Croix WI-
725 PM CDT Mon Aug 5 2024

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN DAKOTA...SOUTHERN
WASHINGTON...NORTHWESTERN PIERCE AND SOUTHWESTERN ST. CROIX COUNTIES
THROUGH 800 PM CDT...

At 725 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Cottage Grove, or 15 miles southeast of St. Paul, moving east at 40
mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
River Falls, Woodbury, Cottage Grove, Inver Grove Heights, Hastings,
Rosemount, St. Paul Park, Prescott, Ellsworth, Afton, Newport, and
Vermillion.

This includes Interstate 94 in Wisconsin between mile markers 10 and
14.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4465 9298 4486 9303 4498 9249 4476 9238
      4470 9271 4471 9273 4470 9274
TIME...MOT...LOC 0025Z 250DEG 33KT 4478 9290

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

RMD

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
727 PM CDT Mon Aug 5 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0706 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     3 W Easton              43.77N 93.96W
08/05/2024                   Faribault          MN   Amateur Radio

            Multiple trees snapped off along highway
            109. Time estimated from radar.

&&

BED

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
739 PM CDT Mon Aug 5 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0732 PM     Tornado          1 S Wells               43.73N 93.73W
08/05/2024                   Faribault          MN   Trained Spotter

            Multiple spotter reports of tornado and
            ongoing tree damage.

&&

BED

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
748 PM CDT Mon Aug 5 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0744 PM     Funnel Cloud     2 N Alden               43.69N 93.58W
08/05/2024                   Freeborn           MN   Trained Spotter

            Spottered reported funnel cloud about 50
            feet off the ground.

&&

BED

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
750 PM CDT Mon Aug 5 2024

MNZ070-078-WIZ024>026-060115-
Dakota MN-Goodhue MN-Pierce WI-Dunn WI-Pepin WI-
750 PM CDT Mon Aug 5 2024

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT EAST CENTRAL DAKOTA...CENTRAL
GOODHUE...PEPIN...PIERCE AND SOUTHWESTERN DUNN COUNTIES THROUGH 815
PM CDT...

At 749 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 6 miles southeast of Prescott to near Red Wing
to 7 miles northeast of Goodhue to near Oronoco. Movement was east at
55 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Red Wing, Ellsworth, Pine Island, Durand, Pepin, Elmwood, Eau Galle,
Welch, Plum City, Bay City, Stockholm, and Frontenac.

This includes U.S. Highway 61 between mile markers 82 and 102.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4420 9263 4445 9259 4455 9270 4471 9282
      4485 9208 4460 9194 4458 9203 4441 9209
      4445 9224 4445 9243 4437 9243 4436 9255
      4420 9255
TIME...MOT...LOC 0049Z 276DEG 49KT 4468 9270 4455 9260 4444 9249 4420
9253

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

RMD