Alert archive / Minnesota / Special Weather Statements in 2024

Special Weather Statement, NWS Twin Cities, MN

July 31, 2024Le Sueur County, Minnesota

NWS Twin Cities, MN issued this special weather statement at Jul 31, 2024, 7:12 PM CDT for Le Sueur County, Minnesota. It was in force for 33 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Jul 31, 2024, 7:12 PM CDT (00:12 UTC)
Expired: Jul 31, 2024, 7:45 PM CDT
In force: 33 min
Issued by: NWS Twin Cities, MN
Hail: 0.75 in
Wind: 40

County Le Sueur County, MN

The radar

The Minneapolis radar (KMPX), 64 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 00:13 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Minneapolis, MN (KMPX), launched 00:00Z, 0.2 hours before the alert went out and 63 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 895 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -190 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1339 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 29 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: -1 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 68 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 1.3

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

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What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this special weather statement went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Twin Cities, MN wrote its last area forecast discussion before this special weather statement went out at Jul 31, 6:33 PM CDT, 39 minutes earlier. Its key messages:

Enhanced risk (3 of 5) today across western and southern Minnesota. The primary hazards include large hail and damaging wind gusts up to 80 MPH.
Severe storms are possible this afternoon across western and central Minnesota, with uncertainty regarding potential secondary development this evening across SW & S Minnesota.
Heat and Humidity continue through Saturday before cooler temperatures arrive the second half of the weekend.

Area forecast discussion, Jul 31, 6:33 PM CDT, 39 minutes before

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
633 PM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Enhanced risk (3 of 5) today across western and southern
  Minnesota. The primary hazards include large hail and
  damaging wind gusts up to 80 MPH.

- Severe storms are possible this afternoon across western and
  central Minnesota, with uncertainty regarding potential
  secondary development this evening across SW & S Minnesota.

- Heat and Humidity continue through Saturday before cooler
  temperatures arrive the second half of the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 142 PM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024

A regional view captures an mid-level wave on water vapor
imagery across central Dakotas. An ongoing mesoscale convective
system (MCS) is apparent over western Minnesota. This will our
immediate concern for severe weather this afternoon across west-
central Minnesota. The potential for additional development
further south remains uncertain at this time, but a high-end
instability (5000+ j/kg) is in place across much of central &
southern Minnesota. Forecast soundings indicate favorable
vertical shear, very steep mid level lapse rates 8.0-8.5C+ , and
elongated hodographs over western Minnesota. This environment
will be capable of producing both large hail (initially) and
damaging wind gust (60 mph+). Downdraft CAPE is not to be
overlooked with 1500+ j/kg present over much of the area, lining
up with moist low levels but drier air aloft that are able to
support severe wind gusts to potentially destructive (80 mph+).
SPC expanded the Enhanced risk (3 of 5) further NE with the
1630z update to better match recent observational trends. A
remnant elevated storm across the Dakotas has become better
organized over the past hour or two as it moves into a better
thermodynamic environment across eastern SD/western MN. The
storm has likely transitioned to surface-based storm as it taps
into extreme instability ahead of it. Radar imagery reveals our
line has began to exhibit bowing as it enters western Minnesota.
This would be indicative of a wind producing storm. Previous
observations across E SD show this line has a history of
producing 60 to 70 mph gusts. This line should continue to track
ENE impacting portions of western and central Minnesota. A
severe thunderstorm watch is out for portions of west-central MN
with the primary concern of damaging wind gusts, large hail.

There is some uncertainty with the southern extent of this line. The
better upper level forcing is confined to the northern portion of
the ongoing MCS. An approaching wave will provide additional upper
level forcing but it currently lags behind our MCS. We may not see
additional development on the initial ongoing MCS, but we could see
additional convection initiation across southwestern and southern
Minnesota late afternoon/evening as the better upper level support
arrives. The first MCS will add additional uncertainty with
convective debris (cirrus) impacting heating across portions of
southern Minnesota. The best odds for secondary development would
favor along and south of the Minnesota river. We are planning to
send up a special 19Z balloon launch at our office in Chanhassen to
better sample the convective environment ahead of the ongoing
storms. This should help answer a few of those remaining forecast
questions about this ongoing MCS and potential secondary development
this afternoon/evening over SW MN. I'll aim to send out an AFD
update later this today.

Thursday will feature a few lingering showers and thunderstorms
across eastern Minnesota and western Wisconsin. The main concern
with these storms will be the potential for brief bursts of heavy
rain and locally gusty winds. Temperatures will run a good 5 to 10
degrees cooler Thursday, but humidity will remain with dew point
temperatures in the mid 60s to lower 70s. Showers and storms will
taper off Thursday evening and we'll begin to dry out for a day or
two. Friday will be dry and mostly sunny. High temperatures return
to the upper 80s and lower 90s with Tds in the 60s and lower 70s.

Saturday and Sunday will see the return of potential showers and
storms across the Upper Midwest. Saturday will be our final hot and
humid day for this forecast period with highs in the low 90s and low
70 dewpoints. There is some potential for low-end heat heat
headlines Saturday across western Minnesota and the Twin Cities
metro but it remains borderline for now. Our attention turns to a
weak surface boundary that is tied to an trough over NE NOAM east of
Hudson Bay. Storm development will be favored across northern
Minnesota Saturday evening before expanding further south as the
boundary sags south into central Minnesota. Sunday will bring a
renewed chance for showers and storms as a mid-level shortwave
provides another uptick of forcing along the quasi-stationary
boundary draped across the Upper Midwest. Potential for any severe
seems low at this time, but the finer details will be worked out
this weekend. Early next week looks to offer a most pleasant Summer
forecast for early August with temperatures in the 70s and 80s with
a break from annoying humidity.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 621 PM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024

Thunderstorms over eastern and south-central MN will continue
moving east through this evening. Periods of MVFR/IFR from heavy
downpours and gusty variable winds can be expected with this
convection. Across western MN and eastern SD, another line of
storms has developed. This activity should eventually move
east/southeast through tonight. Uncertainty remains in exact
storm track with this line so have added PROB30s of -TSRA for
all terminals downstream. Very strong winds could accompany
this line of storms. Once storms move to east early Thursday
morning, cigs will drop to low VFR/MVFR into early Thursday
afternoon before improving. General easterly winds this evening
will be variable during storm passages with northerly flow
prevailing during Thursday morning.

KMSP...Added TEMPO for nearby thunderstorms approaching MSP for
the next 2 hours. Another line of storms is possible from 04-08Z
tonight with IFR conditions and very strong winds possible. Cigs
drop to MVFR near 12Z Thursday before improving to VFR Thursday
afternoon.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR. Wind NW 5-10 kts.
SAT...VFR. Wind SW 5-10 kts.
SUN...VFR. Chc AM MVFR/TSRA. Wind NE 5-10 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...BPH
AVIATION...CTG

Hazardous weather outlook, Jul 31, 3:26 PM CDT, 3 hours 46 minutes before

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
326 PM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-
012030-
Douglas-Todd-Morrison-Mille Lacs-Kanabec-Stevens-Pope-Stearns-
Benton-Sherburne-Isanti-Chisago-Lac Qui Parle-Swift-Chippewa-
Kandiyohi-Meeker-Wright-Hennepin-Anoka-Ramsey-Washington-
Yellow Medicine-Renville-McLeod-Sibley-Carver-Scott-Dakota-
Redwood-Brown-Nicollet-Le Sueur-Rice-Goodhue-Watonwan-Blue Earth-
Waseca-Steele-Martin-Faribault-Freeborn-Polk-Barron-Rusk-
St. Croix-Pierce-Dunn-Pepin-Eau Claire-
326 PM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central and
southern Minnesota, and west central Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Thunderstorms are expected early this evening, with damaging wind
gusts expected in the strongest storms. The potential for
destructive winds is highest across western and central Minnesota,
but the chance for severe weather still exists into eastern
Minnesota and western Wisconsin.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN spotter activation will likely be needed this afternoon &
evening.

In the hours before

Local storm report, Jul 31, 6:41 PM CDT, 31 minutes before

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
641 PM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0640 PM     Rain             3 SSW Inver Grove Heigh 44.81N 93.06W
07/31/2024  M1.24 Inch       Dakota             MN   Cocorahs

            1.24 inches of rainfall so far and still
            falling.

&&

RMD

Local storm report, Jul 31, 6:48 PM CDT, 24 minutes before

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
648 PM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0643 PM     Hail             5 SE Arlington          44.55N 94.02W
07/31/2024  M1.00 Inch       Sibley             MN   Trained Spotter

&&

RMD

Special weather statement, Jul 31, 6:50 PM CDT, 22 minutes before

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
650 PM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024

MNZ054>056-010030-
Chippewa MN-Lac Qui Parle MN-Swift MN-
650 PM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT LAC QUI PARLE...NORTHWESTERN
CHIPPEWA AND SWIFT COUNTIES THROUGH 730 PM CDT...

At 649 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from Odessa to near Appleton to near Dawson.
Movement was east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Montevideo, Benson, Madison, Dawson, Appleton, Milan, Watson, Boyd,
Bellingham, Marietta, Lake Oliver, and Lake Hassel.

This includes the following highways...
 U.S. Highway 12 between mile markers 17 and 51.
 U.S. Highway 212 between mile markers 1 and 37.
 U.S. Highway 75 between mile markers 95 and 127.
 U.S. Highway 59 between mile markers 105 and 153.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 700 PM CDT for
west central Minnesota.

&&

LAT...LON 4526 9645 4525 9629 4522 9627 4518 9610
      4541 9612 4541 9534 4491 9568 4493 9573
      4489 9575 4489 9584 4481 9585 4480 9645
TIME...MOT...LOC 2349Z 247DEG 27KT 4526 9633 4515 9609 4489 9598

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

BPH

Local storm report, Jul 31, 6:56 PM CDT, 16 minutes before

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
656 PM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0625 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     1 NNW Gaylord           44.56N 94.22W
07/31/2024                   Sibley             MN   Storm Chaser

            Multiple trees and branches downed up to 20
            inches in diameter. Time estimated from
            radar.

&&

BED

Local storm report, Jul 31, 7:05 PM CDT, 7 minutes before

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
705 PM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     1 E Le Sueur            44.46N 93.88W
07/31/2024                   Le Sueur           MN   Trained Spotter

            Multiple large trees down. Time estimated
            from radar.

&&

BED

Special weather statement, Jul 31, 7:12 PM CDT, 0 minutes before

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
712 PM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024

MNZ076-010045-
Le Sueur MN-
712 PM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHERN LE SUEUR COUNTY THROUGH
745 PM CDT...

At 711 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Cleveland, or 10 miles northeast of Mankato, moving east at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
St. Peter, Le Center, Kasota, Cleveland, Kilkenny, Lake Jefferson,
and St Henry.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 100 AM CDT for
south central Minnesota.

&&

LAT...LON 4424 9377 4424 9392 4430 9398 4434 9393
      4436 9395 4445 9366 4427 9352
TIME...MOT...LOC 0011Z 250DEG 18KT 4429 9387

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

BPH

The office that day

Everything else NWS Twin Cities, MN issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jul 31, 7:18 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	MPX	Yellow Medicine	42 min
Jul 31, 7:28 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning Considerable damage threat	MPX	Chippewa, Kandiyohi, Renville, Yellow Medicine	47 min
Jul 31, 7:31 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MPX	Le Sueur, Waseca	22 min
Jul 31, 7:51 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	MPX	Kandiyohi	39 min
Jul 31, 8:11 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	MPX	Renville	34 min
Jul 31, 8:35 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MPX	McLeod, Redwood, Renville, Sibley	40 min
Jul 31, 8:41 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	MPX	Redwood	34 min
Jul 31, 8:54 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	MPX	Steele, Waseca	36 min
Jul 31, 9:12 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MPX	McLeod, Sibley	48 min
Jul 31, 9:21 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MPX	Brown	24 min
Jul 31, 9:32 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	MPX	Nicollet, Watonwan	43 min
Jul 31, 9:53 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	MPX	Martin	37 min
Jul 31, 9:59 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	MPX	Sibley	46 min
Jul 31, 10:11 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	MPX	Martin	34 min
Jul 31, 10:36 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	MPX	Blue Earth, Faribault	39 min
Jul 31, 10:47 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	MPX	Nicollet	28 min
Jul 31, 11:06 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	MPX	Faribault, Le Sueur, Waseca	39 min
Jul 31, 11:45 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	MPX	Steele	30 min
Aug 1, 12:47 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	MPX	Steele	88 min

Nearby

Special Weather Statements in Minnesota, 2024 Every special weather statement in 2024

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.