Special Weather Statement, NWS Twin Cities, MN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
351 AM CDT Tue Jul 23 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated to scattered storms this afternoon through this evening.
Although the severe weather risk is low, a few storms may produce
small hail and gusty winds.

- Warm and humid this weekend with another potential for rain
  and storms. &&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 350 AM CDT Tue Jul 23 2024

A bit of a lob-sided discussion with much of the activity
occurring in the 12-24 hours. Conditions have been rather
tranquil now that convection from yesterday evening has reached
SW wisconsin (but it will be short-lived). Temperatures
currently ranging in the 60s with area of dense fog that is
expected to once again linger around until after sunrise.
Current reflectivity showing our next round of scattered showers
and thunderstorms occurring near the MN/ND border. This all
part of a surface low that stems off a larger upper-level low
located over the northern Great Lakes Region. Throughout the
course of today, these features will continue to sink to the
south and east. Showers and storm chances will move along a cold
front which is expected to reach the MN/IA border by this
evening. As mentioned in the previous discussion, convective
activity will likely not have an abrupt conclusion like earlier
evenings have been. With available synoptic forcing along the
western periphery of the upper-level trough and position of the
surface front, PoPs are reflective of isolated to scattered
showers and storms for much of today. Some places could see more
than one round of precip but the risk of severe weather
continues to be low. However weak deep layer shear of 25kts
could provide a risk of small hail and gusty winds with any
organized cells. Between a tenth to a quarter of an inch of
rainfall is expected with localized higher amount possible,
especially across SW MN. Forecasted highs today will range in
the mid to upper 70s to around 80 along the west of the MN River
Valley.

Wednesday through Tuesday...High pressure returns in wake of the
departing low with northerly flow and mostly sunny skies. By
Thursday, flow will transition back towards the south and allow for
warmer air to return just in time for the weekend. Forecast high
temperatures will creep back into the upper 80s and even a few 90s
across western MN with dew points around 70 degrees. Diurnal chances
for showers and thunderstorms continue to look possible this weekend
into early next week however waiting to see better agreement amongst
forecast before talking about specifics.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1248 AM CDT Tue Jul 23 2024

Fog and low stratus will continue to fill in across the area
overnight as plentiful low level moisture (due to rain over much
of the area today) along with calming winds under the nightly
inversion sets things up for degraded conditions. The WI TAF
sites are already at LIFR-or-worse, and may have many of the MN
TAF sites get there before morning mixing begins. The it is a
question of when additional rainfall develops this afternoon.
Have held off mention of TS due to very high uncertainty in
placement but did run with TEMPOs for -SHRA as there is good
agreement among the short-term models for the development of
showers from south-to-north over the area today. VFR conditions
likely by this evening but another round of fog is possible
early Wednesday morning depending on if the sweeping cold front
drags low level moisture out and keeps winds up in its wake.

KMSP...VFR to start but pre-dawn ground fog is possible, at
least to MVFR-level for visibility but potentially IFR in low
stratus. Low clouds will linger for much of the day, only slowly
lifting this afternoon before showers likely return to the area.
TS is possible but confidence is too low to include at this
point.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...VFR. Wind SE 5-10 kts.
FRI...VFR. Wind SE 10-15 kts.
SAT...VFR. Wind S 10-15 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...Dunleavy
AVIATION...JPC

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
324 AM CDT Tue Jul 23 2024

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-
240830-
Douglas-Todd-Morrison-Mille Lacs-Kanabec-Stevens-Pope-Stearns-
Benton-Sherburne-Isanti-Chisago-Lac Qui Parle-Swift-Chippewa-
Kandiyohi-Meeker-Wright-Hennepin-Anoka-Ramsey-Washington-
Yellow Medicine-Renville-McLeod-Sibley-Carver-Scott-Dakota-
Redwood-Brown-Nicollet-Le Sueur-Rice-Goodhue-Watonwan-Blue Earth-
Waseca-Steele-Martin-Faribault-Freeborn-Polk-Barron-Rusk-
St. Croix-Pierce-Dunn-Pepin-Eau Claire-
324 AM CDT Tue Jul 23 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central and
southern Minnesota, and west central Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Areas of fog this morning may reduce visibility to around 1 mile
or less.

Scattered thunderstorms can be expected through this afternoon. No
severe weather is expected but a few storms may produce heavy rain
or small hail.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN spotter activation will not be needed.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
415 AM CDT Tue Jul 23 2024

MNZ041-231000-
Douglas MN-
415 AM CDT Tue Jul 23 2024

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT DOUGLAS COUNTY THROUGH 500 AM
CDT...

At 414 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a cluster of strong
thunderstorms 6 miles southeast of Clitherall, or 22 miles northwest
of Alexandria, moving southeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Alexandria, Evansville, Carlos, Brandon, Kensington, Holmes City,
Leaf Valley, Miltona, Garfield, Belle River, Nelson, and Forada.

This includes Interstate 94 in Minnesota between mile markers 81 and
110.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service
office in the Twin Cities.

&&

LAT...LON 4611 9524 4603 9514 4602 9515 4592 9514
      4576 9531 4576 9576 4608 9577 4611 9576
TIME...MOT...LOC 0914Z 333DEG 22KT 4619 9555

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

JPC

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