Special Weather Statement, NWS Twin Cities, MN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
151 PM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue into this
  evening with locally heavy rain possible, particularly across
  southern Minnesota.

- The second half of the work week will be mainly dry with hot
  and humid conditions arriving by the weekend, along with the
  return of thunderstorm chances.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 146 PM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024

Scattered showers and thunderstorms have been ongoing much of the
day across south central Minnesota. Anywhere from a quarter inch to
near three quarters of an inch of rain has fallen where the more
persistent rain continues to fall early this afternoon. Further
north and west, afternoon convection is starting to take shape,
much like the past two days. Isolated to scattered
thunderstorms will once again last into the evening hours with
locally heavy rain and gusty winds possible. STC reported a 44
MPH gust with the thunderstorm that moved through around 1:30pm,
so winds of this caliber with other stronger storms will
continue to be a threat. Overnight, high pressure moves overhead
with clearing skies and light winds leading to patchy dense fog
by Thursday morning. We will finally get a break from the daily
precip chances Thursday through Friday with highs beginning to
climb into the mid to upper 80s.

This warming trend will continue into the weekend as the upper ridge
over the western CONUS shifts east, with low level southerly
flow sending ample Gulf moisture northward. Many locales will
see their first 90 degree day of the year on Saturday with low
to mid 90s expected area wide by Sunday. When coupled with dew
points in the 70s, heat headlines may be needed with WBGT values
in the mid 80s. With this heat and humidity comes ample
instability, but with 850mb temps nearing 18-20C both days, it
may be hard to overcome that cap. A series of shortwaves are
expected to traverse the region Saturday and Sunday, but the
stronger and more impressive wave of the weekend looks to arrive
early Sunday. This would be the better of the two days for
severe weather, but there is still plenty of uncertainty this
far out. Heading into next week, hot and humid conditions will
hang on through Monday before a cold front moves through and
allows temperatures to fall back into the low 80s through the
end of the period.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1221 PM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024

Morning convection continues to gradually drift south through
southern Minnesota, with improvements expected in the next few
hours at MKT. Similar to the last few days, expect isolated to
scattered convection to fire this afternoon and then decrease
in coverage this evening. Have included PROB30's at STC, MSP,
RWF, RNH, and EAU to cover this potential through around 00z.
Very light and variable winds overnight, with a slight increase
to around 5kts out of the SE tomorrow. Potential is growing for
patchy fog/MVFR visibility between 10-14z Thursday, so have
included minor visibility reductions at RWF, MKT, RNH, and EAU.

KMSP...Latest hi-res forecast data is trending on the lower
side for coverage of showers and storms this afternoon, however
have opted to keep the PROB30 in the TAF from 20-24z after
consulting with ZMP and monitoring the latest radar trends.
Guidance is not excited about the potential for fog impacts at
the terminal early tomorrow. Light and variable winds tonight
followed by a slight increase out of the south by midday
tomorrow.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR. Wind S 5-10 kts.
SAT...VFR. Slight chc -TSRA. Wind S 5-15 kts.
SUN...VFR. Slight chc -TSRA. Wind SW 5-15 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...Dye
AVIATION...Strus

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
301 PM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024

MNZ058>063-066-068-070-102045-
Anoka MN-Washington MN-Dakota MN-Hennepin MN-McLeod MN-Carver MN-
Ramsey MN-Meeker MN-Wright MN-
301 PM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT HENNEPIN...SOUTHERN WRIGHT...
NORTHERN DAKOTA...MEEKER...SOUTHEASTERN ANOKA...NORTHERN MCLEOD...
NORTHERN CARVER...WASHINGTON AND RAMSEY COUNTIES THROUGH 345 PM
CDT...

At 300 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking scattered thunderstorm
just south of I-94, moving south at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Minneapolis, St. Paul, Buffalo, Hutchinson, Bloomington, Brooklyn
Park, Plymouth, Eagan, Woodbury, Maple Grove, Coon Rapids, and Eden
Prairie.

This includes U.S. Highway 12 between mile markers 89 and 140.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4513 9278 4506 9280 4482 9277 4474 9281
      4478 9338 4481 9343 4480 9354 4486 9450
      4489 9450 4489 9474 4523 9476
TIME...MOT...LOC 2000Z 010DEG 12KT 4507 9330

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

JRB

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
305 PM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024

MNZ056-057-064-065-073-102030-
Chippewa MN-Yellow Medicine MN-Kandiyohi MN-Renville MN-Redwood MN-
305 PM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT EASTERN CHIPPEWA...REDWOOD...
SOUTHEASTERN YELLOW MEDICINE...SOUTHERN KANDIYOHI AND WESTERN
RENVILLE COUNTIES THROUGH 330 PM CDT...

At 304 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking scattered thunderstorms in
west central Minnesota, moving south at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Willmar, Redwood Falls, Granite Falls, Olivia, Clara City, Renville,
Atwater, Walnut Grove, Lamberton, Raymond, Wabasso, and Sacred Heart.

This includes the following highways...
 U.S. Highway 12 between mile markers 65 and 87.
 U.S. Highway 14 between mile markers 44 and 68.
 U.S. Highway 212 between mile markers 46 and 79.
 U.S. Highway 71 between mile markers 53 and 75, and between mile
markers 86 and 128.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4514 9537 4522 9476 4489 9476 4488 9474
      4486 9491 4419 9513 4420 9559 4462 9561
      4463 9576
TIME...MOT...LOC 2004Z 010DEG 12KT 4471 9536

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

JRB

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