Severe Thunderstorm Warning 57, NWS Twin Cities, MN

443 
WWUS53 KMPX 182117
SVSMPX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
417 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024

MNC121-182130-
/O.CON.KMPX.SV.W.0057.000000T0000Z-240618T2130Z/
Pope MN-
417 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 430 PM CDT
FOR CENTRAL POPE COUNTY...

At 416 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Starbuck, or 21
miles east of Morris, moving northeast at 40 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Glenwood, Starbuck, Sedan, Glenwood Airport, Long Beach, Lake
Minnewaska, and Glacial Lakes State Park.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 800 PM CDT for west central
Minnesota.

Remain alert for a possible tornado! Tornadoes can develop quickly
from severe thunderstorms. If you spot a tornado go at once into the
basement or small central room in a sturdy structure.

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 4557 9567 4574 9540 4558 9524 4547 9561
TIME...MOT...LOC 2116Z 235DEG 36KT 4558 9546 

TORNADO...POSSIBLE
HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

Dye

661 
WWUS53 KMPX 182124
SVSMPX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
424 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024

MNC121-182134-
/O.EXP.KMPX.SV.W.0057.000000T0000Z-240618T2130Z/
Pope MN-
424 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR CENTRAL POPE COUNTY WILL
EXPIRE AT 430 PM CDT...

The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer poses an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore, the warning will be allowed to expire.  However, gusty
winds and heavy rain are still possible with this thunderstorm.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 800 PM CDT for west central
Minnesota.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service
the Twin Cities.

&&

LAT...LON 4557 9567 4574 9540 4558 9524 4547 9561
TIME...MOT...LOC 2124Z 235DEG 36KT 4562 9537 

$$

Dye

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
244 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong to severe thunderstorms are likely to develop this
  afternoon and evening. Primary hazards are damaging winds and
  a chance for a few tornadoes. Locally heavy rainfall is also
  possible this afternoon into tonight.

- Additional rainfall of 0.50" to 1.00" through Wednesday
  morning.

- Pleasant stretch with temperatures in the 70s Wednesday and
  Thursday.

- Next chance for widespread rain arrives Friday into the
  weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 232 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024

Today and Tonight... A busy stretch of weather is on tap for
this afternoon and evening. Current observations highlight the
tropical-like airmass in place. Temperatures are in the low to
mid 80s with dewpoint temperatures in the low 70s. Southerly
winds with gusts up to 40 mph will turn northwesterly and
decrease overnight behind the frontal passage.

Our attention turns to this afternoon's severe weather set up. A
potent sfc low over the eastern Dakotas will lift northeast into
northern Minnesota this afternoon. A trailing cold front moves into
western Minnesota by early afternoon and will be the focus point for
convective initiation. Strong southerly low-level flow will result
in continued moisture advection through the afternoon hours. Ahead
of the cold front, we've seen moderate instability 2500-3500 J/kg
build into central and southern Minnesota. Effective shear remains
around 30 knots with nearly unidirectional shear aloft, limited by
weak flow aloft. Initial storm mode will be multicell with a
supercell or two possible but storms will quickly congeal into a
linear storm mode given the unidirectional shear profile aloft. Our
primary concern will be the potential of damaging wind gusts
convection moves through central and southern Minnesota and
western Wisconsin. KMPX VAD profile highlights impressive low
level SRH values between 200-300 m2/s2 and along with decent
speed shear in the lower levels. Given the enhanced low level
wind shear, a few tornadoes will be possible this afternoon.
This matches up with the SPC SWO update added a 5% TOR area over
our MN counties. Our 18z sounding highlights impressive
moisture in the lower levels with PWAT of 1.91". The wind
profile has some veering in the mid levels. Low level wind
profile is impressive with nice curvature in the hodograph. Most
importantly, the capping inversion has effectively eroded in
the 18z ob. Initiation should when better upper level support
arrives mid-afternoon, roughly 2-4PM, with a mixed convective
mode before turning more linear. Storms impact the Twin Cities
metro between 5 and 8pm. Heading into the evening hours, the
front becomes more progressive and will shift the showers and
storms into western Wisconsin with an overall diminishing trend
by mid to late evening.

Wednesday and Thursday... A brief break in the active weather
pattern on tap for Wednesday and Thursday. Both days will be dry
& pleasant with highs in the low to mid-70s, partly sunny
skies, and light winds. Rain chances return Thursday night into
Friday ahead of our next system.

Friday through early next week...Southwest flow aloft will return
and so will the moisture. This will support additional rain chances
Friday and Saturday, with an additional 1-2" of rain likely for most
locations, and 3"+ still possible where the strongest storms move
through. Guidance hints at a slow moving system as it moves into the
Upper Midwest on Friday. Placement of the surface boundaries will be
important due to the potential for heavy rain. Any additional rain
will contribute to additional rises in area rivers and streams for
exacerbate flooding concerns into next weekend and early next week.
Temperatures appear to warm back up during this period with highs in
the 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1221 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024

Biggest change for this TAF set was to lower cigs after the
FROPA this evening and keep them MVFR/IFR through much of the
overnight. Did not mess with the timing of -TSRA much as it
still looks to be on track. Winds will become southwesterly to
northwesterly as the front passes. Most sites will hold on to
MVFR/low end VFR through the end of the period.

KMSP...Based on hi-res models, added in some VCSH through early
this afternoon. There looks to be some isolated convection ahead
of the main line, which is still forecast to impact KMSP
beginning around 23z. Cigs drop as mentioned above and have
decided to keep them MVFR through tomorrow morning.
Southwesterly winds with gusts of 30-35kts will be possible from
around 23z through 03z.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...VFR/MVFR, chc -TSRA/-SHRA. Wind E 5-10kts.
FRI...VFR/MVFR, chc -TSRA/-SHRA. Wind S 10-15kts.
SAT...VFR/MVFR, chc -TSRA/-SHRA. Wind SW 10-15kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...BPH
AVIATION...Dye

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
253 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-
192000-
Douglas-Todd-Morrison-Mille Lacs-Kanabec-Stevens-Pope-Stearns-
Benton-Sherburne-Isanti-Chisago-Lac Qui Parle-Swift-Chippewa-
Kandiyohi-Meeker-Wright-Hennepin-Anoka-Ramsey-Washington-
Yellow Medicine-Renville-McLeod-Sibley-Carver-Scott-Dakota-
Redwood-Brown-Nicollet-Le Sueur-Rice-Goodhue-Watonwan-Blue Earth-
Waseca-Steele-Martin-Faribault-Freeborn-Polk-Barron-Rusk-
St. Croix-Pierce-Dunn-Pepin-Eau Claire-
253 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central and
southern Minnesota, and west central Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Thunderstorms will develop this afternoon and evening. A few
storms may become severe with potential damaging winds and a
tornado or two. Locally heavy rainfall is also possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Additional rounds of thunderstorms are expected Thursday night
through Saturday. A few severe storms, heavy rainfall, and flash
flooding are possible with each of these rounds.

River levels will continue rising through late week with some
locations reaching moderate or major flood stage. Additional rain
later in the week could worsen the flooding.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN spotter activation may be needed this afternoon and
evening.

BPH

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1252 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1125 PM     Hail             2 NNE Clarkfield        44.81N 95.79W
06/17/2024  M2.25 Inch       Yellow Medicine    MN   Trained Spotter

            Photos of hail against tape measure sent via
            email. Largest hail stone was 2.25 inches.

&&

CTG